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Typhoon Haiyan, which struck the Philippines with such devastating force on November 8,
is a tragedy of epic proportions. It will take months to calculate its full human and
economic toll. But even as this grim accounting begins, the storm has driven home three realities
about natural disasters—and the world's ability to cope with them.
First, the global threat of devastating disasters is rising, thanks to a combination of climate
change, population growth, and urbanization. As the world warms, extreme weather events—from
record-setting droughts to massive hurricanes--are becoming commonplace. Typhoon Haiyan was the
most powerful tropical cyclone to make landfall in recorded history.
Rich countries are not immune to such calamities—as Hurricane Katrina showed. But developing countries
are especially vulnerable, given demographic trends. By mid-century, the world will add
another two billion people, and the proportion of people living in cities will grow from
just over fifty percent today to two-thirds. Most of this urban growth will be in coastal
areas in the developing world, including many that are prone to tropical storms and flooding.
What makes this so dangerous is that few cities are prepared to cope with a massive influx
of migrants—much less to prepare for disasters. By 2030, more than two billion people will
be living in sprawling slums and shantytowns, with little modern infrastructure, leaving
them at grave risk to natural disasters. We saw the calamitous results in the Philippine
city of Tacloban, where crudely built homes were tossed aside like matchsticks.
Second, the international community lacks the tools it needs. Globally, the United Nations
tries its best to coordinate international responses to disasters. But the unit tasked
with this job—the Office of the Coordinator for Humanitarian Affairs (or OCHA)—is under-resourced,
forced to issue special appeals to raise funds from UN member states for each emergency.
Regional organizations, meanwhile, vary enormously in their ability to respond to disasters.
In the case of the Philippines, one would expect the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations to be taking a leading role. But it lacks the essential response capabilities
to fulfill its mandate for disaster management and emergency response.
Given these shortcomings, it's often left to the United States to fill the vacuum. And
that usually means the U.S. Department of Defense, which has four times as big a budget
for emergency response as the U.S. Agency for International Development. Over the past
decade, the Pentagon has deployed its unmatched logistical capabilities to respond to the
Indian Ocean tsunami, earthquakes in Pakistan and Haiti, and now typhoon Haiyun. But relying
so heavily on the military is not always appropriate. Going forward, the United States needs to
provide its civilian agencies with the resources to shoulder some of this burden.
Third, preparedness can make a difference. Today, too much global energy goes into disaster
response, rather than building resilience against emergencies in the first place. This
needs to change. One way is by re-targeting development assistance to help countries assess
their vulnerability to natural disasters and invest in critical infrastructure to minimize
risk. Heavily populated urban areas in particular will need to invest in early warning mechanisms
and robust contingency plans. But to be successful, a commitment to emergency preparedness must
permeate the entire society—so that local communities, at the grassroots level, are
ready when the time comes.