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The May 2013 Guardian /ICM poll may well go down as one of the most jaw-dropping in the
30 year history of the series, with each of the main 3 political parties haemorrhaging
four percentage points apiece this month with a jubilant and emergent UKIP doubling their
vote share from an already record high 9% in April to a full 18% now.
Of course UKIP are riding the wave of their sensational local council election performance,
where they secured a full 23% share of the vote, in those seats where they managed to
stand a candidate, and they'll be completely ecstatic at not only overcoming the third
place local democrats but within touching distance of their right of centre main party
competitor. The Tories are reeling on 28% share of the vote a figure that they haven't
previously witnessed since 2002. Matters haven't been helped this week of course
by the interventions of Tory apparatchik Lord Lawson, and indeed current Education Secretary
Michael Gove, both of who came out to say that if there were an imminent referendum
on British membership of the European Union, both would vote to take us out. Labour can't
be smug about this turn of events though. Their 4% drop of the vote share puts them
on a level they haven't previously seen since Gordon Brown was ejected from Number 10. Downing
Street, and as for the 11% the Liberal Democrats achieved, it's about as core vote as it gets.
The only remaining question is whether this is a full sea change in British politics,
whether it's a rejection of the three party state we have seen for many a year and whether
the UKIP can translate their translate their excellent showing in the local council elections
to a permanent showing in the polls in the run up to the 2015 general election. Some
people argue that politicians approval ratings are a better proxy for how Parties will do
at the next general election than are the current poll standings.
If that's the case then Nigel Farage can be doubly delighted this morning; standing as
he does on +17, with full 40% of the British public saying he's doing a good job as UKIP
party leader. That's hardly the case for the Prime Minister, David Cameron slips to -15,
his worst showing on the approval ratings since he entered Downing Street. Similarly
Ed Milliband is on -22, only one point better off than his worst case scenario back in April.
If it's true that positive approval ratings can see a leader and his party through to
the next General Election to a successful outcome, then Farage will be in good stead
for 2015. His leadership and his party is the only one showing positively in the polls
right now, and if this can be sustained we might well be seeing a new trajectory in British
politics.