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Good morning! My name is Corby Dickerson and I will be presenting the Fire Weather Briefing
for today, July 15th. Today will likely be our �quietest� weather
day as high pressure becomes slightly stronger and more pronounced this afternoon. As the
atmosphere high temperatures with readings reaching some 5 to 10 degrees above normal
and instability will help create some breeziness across the area. Winds will generally be terrain
driven and quickly die off shortly after sunset. In other words, nothing out of the ordinary
is expected today.
However things will begin to change on Tuesday as a deep surge of monsoonal moisture begins
to make its way into central Idaho. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon,
mainly across the Nez Perce, southern Bitterroot and southern Beaverhead/Deerlodge National
Forests. Some storms may become quite strong and with many capable of producing brief heavy
downpours. Monsoonal moisture will continue to advect
northward Tuesday night with thunderstorms likely to continue well into Wednesday morning.
The intensity of these storms, however, is likely to decrease due to instability become
less overnight. But the threat for heavy rain remains due to an abundance of atmospheric
moisture. Monsoonal moisture will be well established
across all of western Montana and north central Idaho by Wednesday. A weak upper level disturbance
is forecast to brush the Idaho Panhandle region and bring an additional element of instability
into the fold on Wednesday afternoon. This could help initiate some intensely strong
thunderstorms. The area of focus for the strongest storms at this time appears to be across southwest
Montana as noted by the red oval. In addition to very heavy downpours, some storms may be
capable of produce gusty winds and some hail. All things considered, the abundance of atmospheric
moisture leads us to believe that many areas will see at least a wetting rainfall and likely
significantly more by Wednesday night. But all good things must eventually come to
an end. The high pressure ridge over the western United States will rebuild, effectively cutting
us off from any additional supply of monsoonal moisture. Temperatures are expected to once
again warm well above normal with the atmosphere undergoing a continued period of drying. The
development of strong and potentially prolonged thermal belts is possible late this week and
through the weekend along with poor mixing. The next fire weather briefing is scheduled
for Thursday, July 18th. If you have any questions between now and the next briefing, please
feel free to contact us at the National Weather Service at any time. Thank you!