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professor Vincent rar 0 before we get into any the specifics
or particulars in terms of international diplomacy
how meaningful is it in your opinion just having even this kind of
preliminary
agreement in discussion with Iran well the nuclear issue aside
the fact that the United States and Iran are talking face to face
is really profoundly significant I mean this is a big change since 1979
gotta remember that Iran is very powerful statements
got a large population very well-educated
it's been out in the cold for a long period of time opening up to Iran
opens up also to different possibilities in the Middle East
what we have now on the table is a temporary
six-month agreement in which Iran basically says it will slow
its nuclear development program which it said is basically for
medical purposes in for power production power
in return the United States and other Western powers lift some economic
sanctions
gold petrochemical exports and
financial restraints which in some get basically
things will really hurting the economy in
Iran put that in perspective what does this mean to Iran and its people
well actually lifting scheme the sanctions that you mentioned
really isn't all that significant yet I mean the financial restrictions are the
ones that are really crippling the
Iranian economy and those are yet to come so we still going on
of a lot of pressure on Iran alternately however
arm what we've seen is India opening up a certain
conduit to Iran for oil RBC
other countries trying to exploit this opening are
I think that overtime is going to lift up the Iranian economy
substantially but it'll be a very slow process
the schoos have been loosened but they're still pretty tight
Israel doesn't like this deal
at all the prime minister netanyahu call it an historic
mistake israel's not happy the United States their their key ally
internationally
played a major role in brokering this deal do you see serious
or long-term impact on israeli US relations
well I yes I do
I'll I think it's unquestionably true that the netanyahu government
really oppose this agreement on me I wouldn't hesitate to
speak for the israeli people I don't know how they think about the agreement
but I'll be perfectly frank there's no way to offer
the netanyahu government the level of certainty
that it wanted on the issue on you are
nuclear enrichment in Iran the United States
arm more or less overrode the objections
not just Israel but Saudi Arabia both fear a nuclear-armed Iran
arm this is widened the gulf between the United States and Saudi
between Israel and the United States and Saudi Arabia and the United States
that's not necessarily a bad thing
home they're two very reliable allies
but there are other players in the middle east haha
and I think it's very important for the United States to give itself a little
freedom of
maneuverability in that region the
is this a real time %uh change a potential for change in some the
alignments
Nepal the world and you mention Saudi Arabia across the United States and
Saudi Arabia
have been close for really more than half a century
many going back I think to the franklin roosevelt administration and the saudi
family is sold family and now
that's that's changing alludu dizzle discomfort with how United States is
acting in the Middle East
well I think that they Alliance became hidebound
and that's certainly true with the alliance with Israel as well
both the israeli government and the saudi government
are really hostage to their domestic situation and their foreign policy is
dictated by the domestic situation but if you take the example of saudi arabia
yield be the monarchy their wishes to
establish a mohabbat type regime and we understand why the monarchy wants to do
that
but the truth of the matter is that's not useful for the united states
government
I meet you can remember that nineteen of the twenty terrorists on 9/11 came from
Saudi Arabia
so as long as the saudis and the israelis are hostage to their domestic
situation means that the United States has little freedom
in terms of foreign policy sending a message to Israel and Saudi Arabia that
you can I think
little more expansively about what your foreign policy interests are
is probably a very good message to both States
in yet not not to get too far away from Iran which we're talking about
but the leadership in saudi arabia is always gonna
writing the back cover Tiger to in that part of the world
where so many in the the Muslim world attacked them so they are to Western
they are not Islamist another if you will from using the terms properly
derided a difficult spot to play both countries
both Israel and Saudi Arabia to there's no question about that
me it's a very very difficult neighborhood and I don't wanna
underestimate the difficulty in both regimes but the truth of the matter is
is that
foreign policy is different from domestic policy and
if the isolation of Saudi Arabia and the isolation all
Israel after Operation Cast Lead in in gaza
up the breakdown 0 the regime in Egypt
the movement of Turkey away from the traditional alliances
all those things indicate that Middle East is an real state of flux
and all the countries there really have to reassess what their foreign policy
objectives are
and try to marry them to their domestic constraints
not vice versa domestic policy can't be the sole driver
foreign policy but let's talk domestic policy
reaction to this in this country if Israel doesn't like something
there is a significant Israeli lobby if you will in this country there are any
number of states
in congressional districts with significant Jewish populations many
those people
strong strong supporters are that tremendous emotional support going back
to israel being formed
after the Holocaust and World War two lotta members of the house
lotta members in the senate and see many more democrats than republicans even
just by the way the politics plays out not real comfortable with this
if Israel doesn't like it this is a tough sell here at home
very difficult sell at home there's no question about that but the power and
the Israel lobby
isn't due to the number jewish constituents in every congressional
district
mean got on the stand that one of the strongest supporters or the constituent
see that supports Israel more than any other constituency
is the evangelical Christians and they're the ones that are really driving
the policy toward Israel arm it's going to be very difficult for Obama to sell
this policy
to the congress and you're right republicans and democrats are going to
have a hard time swallowing this Agreement
but again this is a situation where domestic politics
release had to take a sec a back seat to foreign policy
and Obama's trying to exercise foreign policy in a way
that overrides these domestic constraints really important that
he allowed be he be allowed to at least explore
these new possibilities and for the congress to slam the brakes on right now
would be
really counter-productive we hear
the current Iranian president you're running per 0 honey his foreign minister
Zarif called moderates now any title like that obviously is
kinda relative in terms of where you are in the world and I suppose who you
follow on someone like
president Ahmadinejad put them in perspective who are these new leaders
UHV
Iran on the world stage arm
I think moderate a radical is probably inappropriate
I mean really what we have our as a new leadership in Iran
that understands that the continued isolation up Iran
from the world stage is very bad policy for the Iranian people
they are constrained by the what we call the hard-liners in Iran no question
about that
but the truth of the matter is is that they're not going to give up on the idea
the Islamic Revolution
and we shouldn't expect them to I don't think
the United States and Iran are going to be close friends
the the real question is can they be reasonable adversaries
and I think they can Andrew honey understands this
as does a reef I was really encouraged win
I read that's a relief is going on a I charm offensive if you will
he's going to Saudi Arabia is going to kuwait he's going to all the Sunni
Muslim states
trying to forge a new relationship that's critically important
to the acceptance of Iran as a player in the Middle Eastern politics
presidents and for are all present politics on how your college thank you
for being with us sir
my pleasure thank you