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ANNOUNCER: AMI presents...
Welcome to another edition of Oliver's Twist.
I'm Dave Brown,
joined by CTV Chief Political Correspondent, Craig Oliver.
Hello, Craig. Hi, Dave.
Craig, parliament is back sitting for the spring session.
Should be a pretty big session.
Some interesting stuff on the board.
What do you think the political consequences
of this particular spring session will bring
to the House of Commons?
Potentially immense.
This spring session of parliament,
the spring sitting, is always an important one
because a lot of the legislation in the last few years
comes together here and gets passed.
It always lasts it's the longest sitting.
It lasts from usually about mid-January
until near the end of June.
So, there's just a lot on the plate for the politicians.
There's the whole issue of rail safety,
which is so important to the lives of Canadians.
We found that out, um, with that crisis in Quebec and elsewhere.
They've got to deal with that.
We'll be watching Michael Chong's bill
to reduce the power of party leaders.
Um, that there's a lot of interest
in that private members bill.
That could change the system very dramatically.
We'll want to know where Justin Trudeau's effort
to take partisanship out of the Senate goes.
And, of course, there will be a budget early in February.
And that means that a lot of the conversation
in this sitting of parliament will be about the economy.
There will be a lot of debate around the budget.
We will see in that budget
that the government is on the verge of a balanced budget.
And if that's the case, then there will probably be a debate
about if we're moving toward a surplus in 2015,
what should we do with that surplus money?
Should we put it all into tax breaks,
which go to the higher-income Canadians?
Or should they go to Canadians in a wider spectrum than that?
I think there may be a debate over that.
This will be an important session of parliament.
There's a lot to pick and choose from there.
Let's talk about Michael Chong's bill.
About trying to take some power away from party leaders.
What's the end game there?
What might that look like in practice?
Well, backbenchers want the ability
to pick their own leader.
This is the way it is in the British Parliament.
Instead of having the leader picked by a big convention
of party members, they want to be able to control that.
They want to be able to make other decisions,
and they want to be able to oust the party leader
a very complicated process to do it, if they have to.
That that's an important part of this session.
But as I say, the key to this session will be the budget,
and the debate around the budget.
Because when this session is over,
we're going to be a little less
a little more than a year away from an election.
Very important for Stephen Harper.
He has had his numbers continually going down.
The Liberal Party on top in the polls now, almost for a year.
If he can't turn that around, at some point,
by the end of the by the summer,
he's going to have to make a decision
about whether to stay or not.
Or the party may make that decision for him.
That'll be a very important part of the outcome
of this sitting of parliament.
Well, you've certainly touched on it.
So, we've touched Pandora's box, we might as well take a look.
Is there somebody in the party
who could possibly fill the vacuum,
if Harper were to step away after this session,
or going into another election?
You know, we haven't got time here
to go through all the people in the party
who might want to replace him.
Or who might believe they can replace him.
And I'm not sure he'll leave.
All I am sure of is he is going to have
to take a close look at that.
Any party leader would have to, if for a year
and that's what it's been the polls have shown
that he probably can't win an election.
Just consider this.
He won in '06, he won an election with 36% of Canadians,
and that was only a minority.
Now, he's only looking at having
26% of Canadians supporting him according to the polls.
So, he's got a long way to go
if he's going to win another election,
or at least another majority.
Craig, I can only imagine another big issue
in this sitting is going to be pipelines.
Absolutely, and they're so critical
to the outcome of our politics.
The Northern Gateway. That's from Edmonton to Kitimat.
Huge debate over that.
Coastal chiefs, aboriginal First Nations absolutely opposed.
Saying they'll never agree to this.
The Prime Minister will have to make a decision now
It's in his hands, some time in the next
during this sitting.
And just as important, I think, is the XL Pipeline
from Calgary to the Gulf Coast of Texas.
That's a crucially important issue.
It has become a major issue in American politics.
The President is dragging his feet about making a decision
because he knows it could hurt the Democratic Party
if he opposes it and says no.
So, we're going to get that decision too.
So, two decisions important to our ability
as a nation to develop our resources
in the interests of all Canadians,
are going to have to be made, I think,
between now and next summer when this house is sitting.
Well, Craig, we are going to have a lot to talk about
this year then, and in this session.
Mmm-hmm, we will. So, we look forward to it.
I'm sure the Northern Gateway Pipeline will come into it too.
And rail safety, we'll get down to that as well.
So, let us know what your priorities are.
Send us an email at:
And we'd love to hear from you.
For Craig Oliver, I'm Dave Brown.
Thanks for stopping by.