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bjbjLULU RAY SUAREZ: Now two views on the agreement signed last night from Ali Jalali,
Afghanistan's interior minister from 2003 to 2005. He's now at National Defense University
here in Washington. And Steven Clemons, editor at large at The Atlantic and senior fellow
and founder of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation. Well, gentlemen,
there's been a lot of talk about what the United States promised in the documents signed
with the Afghans. Steven Clemons, what are the big to-do items that the Afghans are now
obliged to do? STEVEN CLEMONS, New America Foundation: Well, I think the Afghans are
obliged to do things that I regretfully say I think they can't. What we hope that they
will do is continue to build an inclusive civil society, a democracy that respects human
rights, women's rights, that stamps out corruption and begins to deliver a better way of life
for the nation as a whole. That's the goal and objective. And I think that there are
efforts under way to do that. What we're likely to see is something that is a much more minimalist
version of that, where opportunity is centered around Kabul, where a shrunken U.S. military
force essentially acts as a deterrent to an overthrow of that government, but you basically
lose control of much of the rest of the government. And as American forces draw down, the infusion
of cash into that economy also dwindles. So that means security forces come down, and
the whole dynamic in Afghanistan becomes much messier. And so we're likely to see a messy
future, while having the expectation of a more robust and balanced civil society. RAY
SUAREZ: There are specific promises in the document of, Ali Jalali, about protecting
the rights of women, about suppressing corruption while building government institutions. Do
you share Steven Clemons' pessimism that your government can do this? ALI JALALI, former
Afghan Interior minister: Well, there's one thing that -- of course, I agree with him
that protection of human rights and also a government that's accountable and transparent
and also inclusive, that is the key to stability in Afghanistan. No matter -- no amount of
foreign troops or foreign money is going to stabilize the country unless there is a government
that the people can trust. This is -- however, in the past 10 years, I think the Afghan society
has changed. I think there is a lot of support for the respect of human rights and also women's
rights. I don't think the country will go back to the days that the Taliban were actually
violating all kinds of rights of men and women. So, therefore, I am optimistic that, as far
as the people are concerned, I think the Afghans can make choices. They are not going to go
back to that era. However, it all depends on the security situation, and also on the
capacity of the government that can protect the population, provide security and the rule
of law. And that can be possible only if the government can control its territory. RAY
SUAREZ: Steven Clemons. STEVEN CLEMONS: I mean, I would just say one key thing. I visited
the Ministry of Women's Affairs in Kabul. This is a time with a large-scale U.S. stewardship
of the Afghan situation, $120 billion a year going in. And that ministry had almost no
resources to do anything in what you would consider to be the best of circumstances.
So, when you draw down the forces and you draw down the money, it's very hard for me
to see, particularly as the power dynamics in the rest of the country shift to an ascendancy
again of warlords in certain areas, as partners with the U.S. government, or perhaps partners
of other players, that, in that situation, I think we need to have a realistic lens.
And I have been actually proposing that we need to find ways in anticipation of this
to bring Afghans' best and most talented women into the areas that we will be able to protect
to give them opportunities that they won't be able to have in other parts of the country
outside of Kabul. RAY SUAREZ: Partner was a word that the president used last night
as well. He said, "With this agreement, the Afghan people and the world should know that
Afghanistan has a friend and partner in the U.S." Would President Karzai say the same
thing to his people about the United States? ALI JALALI: I think he always say that that
is a partnership. Partnership means that both sides in a partnership should do their commitments
or actually honor their commitments. So this partnership agreement, with all the vagueness
that it has, it sends a very strong message to Taliban and to their supporters in the
region that transition doesn't mean abandonment of Afghanistan. RAY SUAREZ: One specific point
in the document says that the United States won't launch attacks on third-party countries
from Afghan soil on other places. Would this make now illegal the United States' pursuit
of terrorists, for instance, over the border in Pakistan? ALI JALALI: Well, it can be interpreted
in different ways. One way is that, yes, Afghanistan and also its neighbors actually want the presence
of international forces to -- not to threaten other -- the neighbors, or Afghanistan's territory
shouldn't be used against the neighboring countries. However, the using of putting -- the
attacks by drones against Taliban or against the al-Qaida-affiliated groups is not a country,
probably, it can be -- al-Qaida is not a country. RAY SUAREZ: Do you think that that's the kind
of thing, Steven Clemons, that may trip this agreement up in the future? STEVEN CLEMONS:
Oh, I think there are many things. There is not a status of forces agreement. Of course,
it was a status of forces agreement that tripped up U.S. forces remaining in Iraq and the inability
to get anyone there. I think Ali Jalali is a declared candidate for president in the
next election. And I think it's going to be interesting to watch these various candidates
run and whether they will support or not a status of forces agreement with the United
States, because it could become a measure of how Afghans look at their legitimacy and
what will eventually be some sorting out over whether the U.S. role in Afghanistan was helpful
or hurtful. But it could become a test of legitimacy in the eyes of Afghan citizens,
just as it was in Iraq. If that doesn't happen, U.S. forces will not stay in Afghanistan after
2014. RAY SUAREZ: Are the common Afghans in the streets, in the marketplaces, in the fields
as tired of war as President Obama says Americans are? Don't they want to see this end? ALI
JALALI: Afghans are tired of war. There's no doubt about it. At the same time, Afghans
do not want to go to the past and to have peace at any cost. So, therefore, they -- the
majority of people of Afghanistan look forward to this partnership with the United States
that can at least guarantee the continued international support -- support to Afghanistan
in terms of security, economic development, and also regional cooperation, and so on and
so forth. However, as we discussed earlier, that all these other issues, the interpretation
of partnership, is going to be defined in the status of forces agreement. And that's
the difficult part, because, in Afghanistan, with the -- what happened just recently with
the killing of civilians in Kandahar and other issues, people are questioning whether the
foreign troops should be subject to their own laws or Afghanistan law. This is going
to be a sticking point in the strategic -- I mean, the SOFA agreement, and that actually
was deal-breaking in Iraq, as you said. RAY SUAREZ: Ali Jalali, Steven Clemons, thank
you both. STEVEN CLEMONS: Ray, thank you. urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags
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