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Hello this is Mike Johnson, I will be doing the fire weather briefing for Monday August
12th. Before we get started with forecast, this
is a quick look by fire weather zone of the number of cloud to ground lightning strikes
we�ve had since Friday. The total is over 4,700 cloud to ground lighting strikes over
the last three days. This is a satellite water vapor image valid
for midnight MDT Sunday Night. It shows moisture present at the mid and higher levels of the
atmosphere. It also shows the low system just off the coast of Washington State and more
subtle spokes of energy pin-wheeling around the low�s center. The yellow dashed line
south of the low central represents yet another wave of energy which will help trigger another
round of storms again today.
The image depicts precipitation from one of our forecast models. Without focusing on the
details of this image, its shows we are in for another convective active day. The yellow
dashed line is our wave of energy (mentioned in the previous slide) and where it is expected
to be later this afternoon. Unfortunately, storm are expected to produce frequent lightning
and the potential for new fire starts. Red Flag Warnings have been issued for Zones 110
and 111 (Beaverhead-Deerlodge N.F.), but forecast confidence was not high enough to include
any other zones at the time of this presentation. Little change is expected in temperatures
and relative humidities. Tuesday will be a day of transition as our
problematic low system ejects northeast into Canada. We are still expecting showers and
some thunderstorms on this day, however, drier air will be moving into western Idaho later
in the day. Once again, temps and humidities will not be significantly different from previous
days.
A ridge of high pressure is expected to build across the Northern Rockies region returning
us to hot, dry conditions. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be in the 90s with relative
humidity in the teens. The general wind pattern suggests diurnal slope winds will dominate
during this period. The next big change is currently expected
for Saturday with the breakdown of the upper ridge pattern. The main message here is that
westerly winds will be increasing during the afternoon. The strongest wind potential would
exist across western Montana. In addition to winds, relative humidity in the teens (possibly
some single digits) could end up being a critical fire weather period.
The next fire weather briefing is scheduled for Thursday, August 15th. If you have any
questions between now and the next briefing, please feel free to contact us at the National
Weather Service at any time. Thank you!