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Hello, this is Steve Nelson with the NWS in Peachtree City here to discuss the chance
for severe weather tonight and the
outlook for the next 7 days.
Current Weather Here's a look at what was happening earlier
today with the weather. I'm using a new National Weather Service site called the
Enhanced Data Display, preview.weather.gov/edd (that's D as in David). I'm overlaying the
current radar and NWS watches and
warnings. Notice that at the time this was captured, storms were just firing over the
ArkLaTex area.
Current Weather I've also overlaid the active Storm Prediction
Center Mesoscale Discussions which address areas of developing hazardous
weather conditions, often before a watch is issued. The web address at the bottom of the
slide is a link to this particular
display if you'd like to see what I used. There are a lot of options on this site, so
take some time and check them out. This
may be helpful to you while you are tracking the storms later tonight.
Severe Weather Threat Tonight Strong to severe storms will sweep through
the area after midnight tonight and we could see some damaging winds to 70 mph with
the stronger storms, as shown by the Storm Prediction Center graphic in the
lower left. Areas north and west of I-85 are more
likely to see severe storms. Also note that there will be a greater vulnerability to downed
trees and power lines in areas
that saw freezing rain and heavy snow accumulations last week. Areas that saw mainly sleet will
still have some impacts, but
should be a little less vulnerable. Timing information is also provided but we'll go
into more detail next...
Squall Line Position -- midnight Here's the position of the squall line hour-by-hour,
as forecast by one of our best performing high-resolution models, the 4km
WRF-EMS, run locally here at our office. Keep in mind that this is only one model and our
meteorologists look at many
different models to create the forecast. That said, at midnight, the WRF is showing the
squall line over northern Alabama
moving quickly east.
Squall Line Position -- 1am 1 am
Squall Line Position -- 2am 2 am
Squall Line Position -- 3am 3 am
Squall Line Position -- 4am At 4 am, the model shows the storms entering
the north and west suburbs of Atlanta.
Squall Line Position -- 5am The storms are along I-85 at 5 am.
Squall Line Position -- 6am At 6 am, we note a weakening trend in the
storms which matches our experience and observation that squall lines often weaken
close to sunrise.
Squall Line Position -- 7am 7 am
Squall Line Position -- 8am 8 am, the weakening continues
Squall Line Position -- 9am 9 am
Squall Line Position -- 10am And 10 am, what's left of the storms are moving
out of our forecast area and into southeast Georgia. As I said, this is just
one computer model forecast, but our experience with it has been positive more than not.
Sunday The next chance of rain will be on Sunday,
especially over middle Georgia where we could see up to ½ inch of rain. There is
some agreement between our two primary long-term computer models on this, so our confidence
is higher. No instability is
indicated, so we're not expecting any severe weather with this system at this time.
Tuesday There's another chance of rain on Tuesday,
but as you can see, there is not very good agreement between our two primary long-
range computer models so our confidence on the timing is lower. We'll keep an eye on
this, but at this time, like the storm
system on Sunday, no severe weather is expected.
Outlook Here's the 7 day forecast for Atlanta. As
you can see, this is a "no-Snow" forecast. We hope you're as happy about that as we
are. A reminder, if you want the latest detailed forecast for your location, just visit weather.gov/Atlanta
and enter your zip
code or city and state in the box in the upper left of the page, then bookmark the page that
comes up for future reference.
Summary In summary, severe storms likely tonight north
and west of I-85, entering the state after midnight, then quickly moving into
Atlanta around 4 to 5am. Storms will weaken after 5am with heavy showers and some thunderstorms
moving through between 5 and
10 am. There's another chance of rain Sunday and Tuesday, especially over middle Georgia,
but the real good news is that *no*
snow or ice is forecast for the next 7 days. A lot of you may be as excited to see that
as we are. Well, that's it. Thanks
for watching and have a great week.