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the term system normally used to describe the changes in the living conditions
living conditions
that a recording here in planter our global warming and climate change
in reality these terms are intimately interconnected
and our power the same phenomenon temperature is director me the namic
measurement
of the energy in system therefore any increase in the temperature for climate
system
is a direct measurement often increase energy content
wouldn't climate system
consider the following hypothesis due to industrial and economic activity
the increment in the annual average global temperature
a book back room temperature has been increasing exponentially
since just after the usuals revolution
piece on the excellent agreement
between model and the observer annual average you
temperatures for the past one hundred and forty years
this hypothesis appears to be that the consequences disagreements
is that based on the calculated to infuriate for exponential function model
through the increase and over-temperature
and increase in the energy content
up the chain system during the next forty five years
that will be is seeing has has a cork
during the last two hundred and years therefore
I most chains to tighten up this presentation it is clear
that significant changes have already been made
to claim a system and that furger adverse changes
most surely follow in the near future mankind
most take immediate action to limit global warming
and thereby slimmest the ever-increasing levels of energy
within the climate system doctor James Hansen and his team at nasa goddard
institute
have reported the observed annual average global temperatures
for the period from 1880 02 2011
decipher 2012 will soon be available
in a graphical representation of these data
it is here that the observed annual average global temperatures
have been increasing over the last one hundred and forty years
for which observations have been avail the simplest aggression 9
that may be drawn to the observation from a teeny CO 2 2011
is shown in raid this simple model
is based on the working hypothesis that the modern economic paradigms
started in 1800 with the industrial revolution
and that is growing exponentially ever since then
in adverse environmental effect
up the growth of the economy his the elevation of the global temperature
a both the back room temperature that would have existed
in the absence of industrial activity the increment in global temperature
is proportional to the extent of industrial development
using this model
it is impossible to calculate is the annual average global temperature
that would have existed in the absence of industrial development
this load shows these calculations back room temperatures
that have remained relatively constant within the very asians caused by the
vagaries of the weather from year to year
today virgins
between the observed annual average global temperatures that we're
experiencing
shown in blue and the CAC lease its annual average global temperatures that
would have existed
in the absence of industrial development for the period
shown in green are illustrated here
at present the increment in the annual average global temperature because
industrialization
is Joe Storm two one degree Celsius both backgrounds temperatures
this slow it shows the model temperature data
extrapolated back to 1800 and in the streets more clearly
the comparison between the two datasets the increasing observed
annual average global temperatures and the state he stays back from
temperatures
the model Daisy freezing home just was talking point 66 degrees Celsius
because the model is based on the natural growth law
the observed exponential growth rate constant
has been the sole sees it still opening period approximately 35 years
the last two hundred and ten years
represents a 6mm periods torso model
for the temperature increments be something that's what brought law
has tense true for sixty opening period so meet in honduras
Oct 2 2010 across East opening period
the increment in temperature at the end of the interval is double that
at just after that interview
the model temperature for 2010 is 14.57 degrees Celsius
it is necessary to resched in the chart to facilities to prediction
a future temperatures
after being valid for 60 open periods it seems reasonable to assume
that the model will hold true for at least 14 viewed opening period
this is based on the expectation that the levels of carbon dioxide gas in the
atmosphere
will continue to increase exponentially
then the predicted temperature for 20 45
will be 15.53 census
if this matter should continue to be valid for a fervor subsequent still
being period
then the predicted annual average global temperature in 20 AC
will reach 17.38 degree Celsius
this prediction is broadly in agreement which predictions from surface cases
dynamic theoretical models
which are far beyond the school put a simple study
however the opiates and a simple model are easy to understand
and reflect we simply accurately what is happening in the train system
the interpretation of what is depicted under preseason slates
is truly frightening and requires everybody inert
has at least a basic understanding of what is happening
and five actions are required immediately
in order to support and maintain conflicts I miss
you wish to continue living in art because the concentration of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere
are increasing exponentially the temperatures
will also continue to follow the exponential model
ok the simple model used tear
is not sophisticated enough to quantify the nature
after extreme weather events as we look or in the future
well considering the increases in the energy levels Tetris all seasons with
the increases in temperature data comm Inc
we can make a quantitative prediction of what is likely to call
whole scene if your doctor changes that a calming in the near future
leaving aside the temperature increases which are themselves very important
it is the energy levels the claim system that's resources but the increased
temperatures
that would give rise to the mall sister option in our daily lives in the
immediate future
by 2045 that is one go blimpie reason to the future
you commit an annual average global temperature
and correspondingly do you comment in the
energy content is the same system will be toys Ceske which has been added
between eighteen hundred and 2010
this will give a very significant boosts to the activities of extreme weather
events
by 2045 horizontal blue lines
may be regarded as ether global temperature
are as the energy content in the climate system
under so much shorter timescale by 2025
the increment in temperature and in energy
will be one and one-half times dole's have been added
hope to 2010
in the very near future by 2022
key increment in temperature and in energy
will be one and one-quarter times dole's have a quarter Oct 2 2010
golson just ten to twelve years time
the extreme weather events will be notably more energetic
than at present
from the temperature at leisure and a simple model considered here
there will be increasingly severe and more persistent disruption
to the passion of our daily lives due to extreme weather events
harkin's tornadoes precipitation don't force influence
central even within the next ten years
these extreme weather events results
in ever increasing degrees attach to our personal prosperity
our homes our schools and colleges
businesses and transport systems
however a simple model considers here is nothing piece
I can only give a force approximation of what is to come
the model does not consider effects a black
that is this really between a challenge and response
that is busily between cause and effect
the greenhouse effect is not heating
parent as if it were a saucepan washer
honey casper where the fleeing can be turned off at any time
and heating subsidies
laws a greenhouse fates is he's in cancer
is if these were called to offer over a lot for
briefly in can only be stopped by not adding more fuel to the fire
and a water protein you see increase in temperature
onto the floor if you was cancelled
characters not in terms equilibrium with 11 greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
doctor James Hansen is on record as saying that there is an imbalance
of 0.6 watts per square meter
between the blue radiation early on actions on
and that which is really is back into space from Eric
so even if the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
were to be stopped instantly know
there would still be significant increase in temperature
onto the balance between the incoming radiation and the Oakland
creations achieved
this is due to the efforts being a black body %eh
although the food theoretical exploration of the greenhouse effect in
there
in dynamic mathematical models is complex
the simple model examined here is that equates to illustrate is so is a problem
facing humanity
in the immediate future mankind as a whole
must take all actions necessary to protect the quality of the biosphere
and its sources claim system which we live
failure to do so will result in increasingly severe negative impact
and the quality of living on their is imperative to further increases
in global temperatures more speaker T is the soonest possible
immediate action must be taken to reduce an enemies
the emission of greenhouse gases yet miss you
in particular 0 in a submission of carbon dioxide
from the compost the fossil fuels most be achieved
simple a reduction in the quantity of carbon dioxide
misses the atmosphere he's not in of
to prevent further increases and over-temperature
of carbon taxes mostly devotion exclusively
to finding indefinitely new sources of energy
that would replace the fossil fuels which are standard of living depends
was ocean do she greed source of energy
that does not impact on the quality the biosphere
to current economic power game is doomed to pass traffic fear
with severe consequences for all mankind
easier continued ever-increasing REITs a few suffice
fuels police determine our own way or
the restriction on use of fossil fuels what does not turn to
been revealed with cause severe
contraction to economic activity
I would like to thank mister Lawrence Rochford for his comments during the
preparation for this video
and for his helpful advice