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but some people wonder can we really create superhuman a time
i'd like to get some historical perspective on this it's definitely true
that some early predictions about their progress were naive
but at the same time of one av one obstacle after another has been
conquered
in nineteen fifty four look to some like machines would never do probabilistic
reasoning but a few decades letter later probabilistic induction was the
the standard uh... they're dying in jr
in nineteen sixty five the philosopher hubert dreyfus mark to the entire field
of a odds alchemy and he mocks the ability of nineteen sixty five test
programs just programs which defeated him two years later
in nineteen thirty three sit so see want tanabe predicted that and i would never
be able to classify objects but now im declassification standard technique and
xin learning and google picasa can recognize your friends faces in a group
photo by nineteen eighty six area and i am program could beat the best human
players in scrabble
and of course in nineteen ninety-seven i_b_m_'s deep blue deep that world chess
champion gary kasparov
by two thousand a_t_f_ programs were better than humans are detecting breast
cancer from images
and in two thousand nine we got our first robotic scientists
named adam adam was programmed with our scientific knowledge about the stand
yeast genome x
and it by adam devise its own hypotheses and then
tested those hypotheses on its own
they gave you know adam had robot arms and today a fridge full of you samples
and cameras and stuff like that
and uh... adam assessed the results on its own and made a novel scientific
discovery about needs to know mix without few mins
intervening at any point in that in that process
uh... and the year twenty twelve has been no slouch for progress an
artificial intelligence either
but still many challenges remain we don't yet have machines that can play
hockey or write novels or do a i research
and some people believe that will never get past that this next comp in get to
superhuman aata
but i think we will the reason it's pretty simple
in short the human mind it does what it does by way of information processing
and machines can do information processing two
and this is the near universal consensus in cognitive science
many things look mysterious to us now but the universal pattern of history is
that things which look mysterious to us now
uh... turn out to have lawful explanations
and not explanations grounded in some on grasp of all magic
weston mention said
every mystery every cell ever every mystery ever solved has turned out to be
not magic
records while has a great illustration of this in one of his books a man is
frantically scribbling down things that only a human can do and pasting them up
on the wall but then those predictions keep turning out to be wrong and they
fall to the floor
this picture was published in nineteen ninety nine and since then machines have
conquered the driving cars thing and we can see obvious progress in that
trampling continuous speech and cleaning houses so basically
if you make these kinds of predictions about what machines camps do
you're going to end up on the wrong side of history
because intelligent behavior isn't magic and will eventually figure it out