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and charged now while we moved from uh... healthcare division of the
deficits we welcome back every sport what he is a
who worked under the reagan administration wrote reaganomics
supply-side economics in action
avedon later also wrote the new american economy to fill your reaganomics and a
new way forward bruce what about realtors happy to be here bruxelles a
touchy about that presses state of the deficit and who's responsible for first
offer how big a deficit that we have right now
about one point four trillion dollars
uh... close to ten percent of uh... the g_d_p_
so one point four trillion dollars and that
is formed
the year of two thousand and nine it but by the time it's over we estimate that
it's going to be about one point four trillion dumps the bowl actually
finished fiscal year two thousand nine that ended on september twelve thirty
right and it was uh... we had a deficit of about one point four trillion
and i believe that were also estimating
of deficit of the same amount of for this coming year
a fiscal year two thousand ten which which were already in
okay so that's one point four both for both yours or mine at an optional
earlier estimated of twenty cents okayed so now it
two thousand line a lot of that obviously given that the it tends to
tell me your for that ends in september thirtieth
of was three bush administrations that is that right
well that's right people two thousand nine budget
well was put forward originally by president bush in
january two thousand eight
and the budget president obama puts forward in
jamie next month
will be pro fiscal year two thousand eleven so we're always
uh... i hear purcell ahead of ourselves
right so
what did that let's talk about own i know that
glasses at one point four trillion breakdown one of the different large
numbers behind that
*** i'd have to uh... to you don't look up i don't have that offer crop of my
head
uh... but uh...
i mean you can really divide up
the deficit in safe so much as due to
spending in so much is due to lower revenues fits
kinda hard to do that well yesterday
did the stimulus bill i'm so it could be for you to the services that
bailout goal in the online
uh... calculations or the twenty counts as this is where the word is a bailout
for the bailout of is uh... marginally in two thousand nine
uh... that was uh... prophetic that would replace shinn was passed
uh... in december just about a year ago
so but
but not all of the
uh... put the budgetary spending you know occurred
last year saw that
still going on in some will still go on mir next year
moods so no
you say that window bombing today i have read your article in they would be some
of course right for other publications as well
the soul
you say about one point two trillion dollars of that deficit was before or
bomb attack on fits
why is that
well beat of the congressional budget office
uh... in january of this year
uh... as tomatoes that we would have a a a a deficit
but one point two trillion in fiscal year two thousand mine
so that was
before
obon took office and didn't take into account
any other policies enacted
uh... and a few go through the c_b_o_'s
calculations you see that ah... a lot of the increase in the deficit from one
point two to one point four
was due to or economic conditions then anticipated
which automatically reduce
so we would probably have had a deficit
one point three trillion dollars
last year
photo even if john mccain had been elected and done nothing hook
in terms of stimulus which i think is uh... is not
antics so you're seeing
point to trillion goes through all bala
obligated economic worsening you're not even tell us you're the bestest about
that's what it doesn't matter how about for twenty ten
of uh... projected
uh... deficit
well can we say well look that's a stimulus spending of all bomb ait cetera
this
how much of that issue responsible for
or certainly a great deal more of it but uh... keep in mind
that that the largest factor leading to
uh... a higher deficit is that
federal revenues are now
at one of the lowest levels way they've been in since world war two
interest to your two thousand nine
federal revenues were fourteen point nine percent of g_d_p_
the postwar average
is is over eighteen percent
something like four percent of g_d_p_
pet the revenues have fallen by about or four percent of g_d_p_
so that accounts for
you know something like forty percent personal of of the deficit
boat and the rest
uh... it is not what i really do to to haha stimulus spending because
spending for things like on employment insurance and welfare and stuff like
that
also goes up automatically even if we don't know mcnamee new program
sodium so
so the stimulus will certainly have some
more of an impact on the deficit
in the current fiscal year but but certainly not
and it's not as if the budget would be balanced if we just had an elected obama
*** mrs
before i get back to that let me just finish at what twenty eleven ok because
now i go one more you're now we're getting of course as we go along we have
more speculative because these are just
their projections of what's going to happen
but given that
you we hope would it would be more stimulus spending at that point we hope
that revenues have pick back up a little bit by that point do we get to better
deficit numbers at that point
yeah i don't have the projections in front of me they're very easily found at
c_b_o_ dot gov
uh... budget dot gov in places like that
uh... but the the administration's function is
that the the bulk of the stimulus was one time
spending that would be
uh... not you know become papa permanent part of the budget and so when those
programs
are finished
uh... doing whatever they do you know then been will get back to normal
but the thing is with normal is still very bad uh... so we're looking at
at deficits and you know feira six percent of g_d_p_ range
as far as the eye can
and that's uh... at least twice is much as i think most budget experts think
uh... it ought to be
mhm sicknesses different sunning on the warrants make a difference in the how
exactly the deaths of these days
well i mean the worst do contribute who
uh... the deficit uh...
uh... he said about the budget now it seems like there in the budget but i'm
not positive about that view
you know you know i mean we spent about a trillion dollars
on the wars in iraq and afghanistan up until now and if memory serves we're
projecting something like that same amount of money
goin of our work
over the next ten years or so so wars are definitely very expensive and they
do add
to the defense budget which is a big part of over the budget
all right now if i would run it bruce bartlett here and u_s_ perforce magazine
and his own website is capital gain deans and games dot com
and of course isn't that what is the new american economy
but so
file it let's go back to the issue of
well who is responsible deficits at this point so when people screamed bloody
*** that awful obama came in all the sudden governments bloated
it's it's kind of an illusion in a sense because
the c_b_o_ had already sent national by the office
that as soon as he was coming in yet a one point two trillion dollar deficit
but right and and of course
i mean it's it's very difficult to account
for spending i mean you know are we supposed to talk about
things like social security and medicare the work
uh... enacted you know uh... generations ago
that have over substantial amount of spending
uh... that at that after the deficit i mean that the heart of that make sense
if it's all we can try to do is look at the short run situation
and in the short run the biggest addition to for the deficit is the
decline in the economy
but we've also had
under president bush you know uh... a huge number of tax cuts
of big increases and spending for medicare part d that was a new program
that will cost
a trillion dollars
over the next ten years
see a lot of plus the wars and a lot of pork barrel spending and things like
that
so certainly a great deal of the problems
a budgetary problems the president obama have to deal with
are things that he inherited
and of course he is uh... addington to those such things as well with the
stimulus and
health reform in
and various other things but uh... but i think it's just
yeah i i i i get tired of hearing republicans talk as here
the budget would be balanced in the economy would be booming if we just had
an elected obama which was just what occurs
you have a bruce bartlett author of the new american economy to fill your
reaganomics and a new way fort thanks so much for journalists on the outskirts
thank you lucrative right that's right