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Looking at what we are going to produce in the future
and we're really going after probalistic forecasting
this is where we feel the future lies. It's going to be
a forecast thats going to provide a heads up for areas
that are likely to exceed certain thresholds. And then the diagram that i have shown
for instances for winds exceeding 20 knots in 6 days time.
You can appreciate that when we reach the tropics we can produce 7 day
forecasts in the middle altitudes relatively easy and with a reasonable degree of
skill. When we get into the tropics, that's a bit different. It produces
a whole range of significant challenges
to cyclones, with regards to surges in the South East
trades and that kind of thing. So we realise that deterministic
forecasts as we have been doing, properly is going to be too challenging. And so
we are going to go to this probalistic forecast to indicate areas which are likely
to exceed certain thresholds. And we'l do this in terms of rainfall
in terms of wind speed and properly in terms of significant
weather. The POAMA Seasonal Forecast
definitely showing signs of improved skill.
And these are going to provide both probalistic
and deterministic forecast and we'l also
look at intraseasonal predictions and this will be
dynamical models and ensembles. Running
to at a point to enable us to fill the gap between
the 7 to 10 day forecast our seasonal forecasts. Now these are
almost certainly going to be in the form as I said of
problistic forecast and
providing the risks of exceeding certain thresholds. And in this
diagram it's the rainfall anomaly for
Decmber 2010 as an example. And you can see
that certainly, in this situation it did a pretty reasonable job.
It predicted greater than 400mm
along much of the Queensland coast and than 3-400 mm
over much of Queensland full stop.
And certainly in Northern NWS and Western Victoria
and also in the Gasciogne Basin in Western Australia. So
it's got a reasonable amount of skill.
Seasonal forecast- what we expect over the next couple of
months? -March to May, well the statistical model
is certainly indicating a fairly dry area over Western Queensland,
Western NSW and South Australia.
And in deed the dynamical model is saying much the same kind of thing, except its got the
increased probability of exceeding media and rainfall
extending further into South Australia and right across
the South Australian wheat belt area there. And
also note the area of increased probability of rain fall in
Gippsland. So there's certainly increased
resolution there with the dynamical models and its
an improved model. So this is something we will be releasing soon.
So to summarise we will see continual improvements in
the forecasts, but they will be incremental. There's not going to be any revolutionary
steps there. Our new forecating system the Next Generation
System will be rolled out across Australia in
the next 12 month, in South Australia and Tasmania
and over the next few years to WA, NT and
Queensland. And the emerging para dynamical models is increasing
apparent. And that's what we will try and capture.
We hope to fill the Intraseasonal space which
we recognise as being an area of very keen interest
for the agricultural sector. And we will be
asking people how they feel
and if the information is useful and how we can improve the presentation.
thanks very much