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The biggest concern about this particular tropical storm, if it were to turn a little bit further to the north, and then maybe to the east, they'd have to watch it very carefully.
The reason they'd have to do that is they need 5 days to evacuate the rigs and the vessels.
that they have out there working on the kill operations and the recovery operation. My gut feeling is if it continues on its current path over the next 24 hours,
i think it will maintain one of these modeled paths. it should be ok. of course, these cones of uncertainty
are getting more and more accurate. through the years but that is somehting they have to watch over the next 24 hours.
its going to be really critical in terms of whether its going to turn to the north or not.
rarely do we get hurricanes in the carribean this early in the season,. consequently that doenst bode well for hurricanes in the future for this summer because
all of the models say we are going to get a lot of hurricanes and they are starting early. and that is very worrisome for the people working on these operation.
the last thing in the world they need is a series of two or three or four hurricanes right after eachother. that could shut down operations for a month.
if we had several hurricanes come in one after another. they wouldnt have to be large hurricanes, just category 1 category 2 would be enough to cause problems.
one thing, they have a lot of small vessels out there in the recovery. they would definitely have to get out of there and get out of the way.
and be stored somewhere on shore or their bigger vessels moved to say Florida or somewhere farther to the east that is not going to be affected.
They've got a lot of personell that are working on the beaches and that just adds to the traffic that needs to evacuate if the hurricane comes in that direction.
when you talk about the releif wells, all of the rigs need to be shut in, the releif effort, or capturing effort would have to be shut off. when that is shut off you would get the full flow
while they are gone and it would take them about 5 days to evacuate. they would probably leave a few people there until the final 24 hours if that were the case.
and then get them out of the way and make sure everything is secure and then it could flow for a week to two weeks depending on how long it took them to get back to the area.