Tip:
Highlight text to annotate it
X
I mentioned that in a few days on the 27th
there will be a Republic of Korea-China summit
in Beijing. I wonder if perhaps Ambassador Lord and Evans
Revere could talk to the symbolic and substantive importance of this summit. There are a number
of interesting things about it. We have two new leaders of the Republic of Korea and China
involved for the first time in a summit. It has been traditional
to have the United States be the first summit
for a new Korean leader and usually the second has been with Japan.
In this case Japan is being bypassed, if I can put it that way, and the second summit
will be with China.
It's also interesting that the Chinese leadership will be meeting with President Park before
there has been
a summit between the relatively new North Korean leader and new Chinese leader.
In the background, of course, we know that China in recent years has acquired,
because of North Korean
belligerence and intransigence towards its other neighbors, perhaps
the highest degree
of exclusive leverage outside of Pyongyang that it's ever had. And, of course, China
has, for a number of years, been the Republic of Korea's number one trading partner. So,
there's a lot of importance attached to this summit. I wonder if you could, Ambassador
Lord, maybe speak to the Chinese side's expectations
First, a quick segue. You mentioned Japan.
There's some concern by Japan that they're jealous of this two-day informal summit meeting
with President Obama in California. Whereas while Abe came here quickly. It was a pretty good meeting,
but it was more of a working one-day affair. That was followed up, as you pointed out,
with South Korea having their second summit
with China and not with Japan. Japan already has an inferiority complex about its decline
in the world, which Abe is trying to reverse. I think we have to pay close attention to
our relations with Japan, because they're absolutely crucial; and I share Evans's concern
about the South Korean-Japanese tensions. This is a really serious problem. I think
that point has to be kept in mind.
Now, with respect to China hosting this summit, they're going to straddle as they always have.
As you just mentioned, they have tremendous economic interests with South Korea. As Evans
and I have both said, they're not going to walk away from North Korea. The rhetoric may
be more balanced, but they provide to North Korea something like 90 percent of the energy
and 50 percent of the food. Even as they've been saying they're going to follow UN sanctions
against North Korea, which they've promised before, they continue to dilute and undercut those sanctions.
They're building a bridge across the North Korean border, and
that safety net is still
going to continue. They're still worried, as I said earlier, about a unified Korea with
potential American troops.
Having said that, the Chinese are increasingly frustrated with North Korea. First, there
is the real danger of war breaking out. In past crises and also in the most recent ones,
we have advised China to remind their North Korean friends that not only will there be
a response if there's a military action like there was a couple of years ago, but it will
be a disproportionate response.
Secondly,
there's some talk, I don't believe it frankly. Nevertheless, it ought to make the Chinese a little nervous.
There's some talk in both Japan and South Korea of a need to have their own nuclear weapons. This is clearly not in China's interest,
but it's fueled by North Korea's
posture.
Thirdly, the American re-balancing is about much more than an increase in our military
presence in Asia and it's not all directed at China. It's because Asia is the most important
region for us. There are many diplomatic regional institutions and economic dimensions beyond
the military. Having said that, North Korean provocations are fueling response in the region
(as well as China's assertiveness) and a buildup of alliances and exercises and exchanges.
This can't be in China's interest, either. So for all these reasons, North Korea is undercutting
China's national interest. That's another reason it will be somewhat more balanced than
it has been in the past. I think they will give a friendly reception to Park, but I don't
think you're going to see any major change in their posture.