Tip:
Highlight text to annotate it
X
A LOOK AT STATISTICS FROM THE VIEWPOINT OF OTHER FIELDS
In 2001 we tried to combine...
THE VALUE OF SALES FORECASTS
...statistical information that came from a few sets of interviews with consumers...
...and retailers with hard information that we had in the sales area,
such as sales and pricing statistics,
which we were collecting in the company,
and to determine how to link this with the value of our brands,
how to translate concepts that are in the field of economics and marketing,
ENG. FRANCISCO ÁVILA SPOTA PRICES AND FORECASTING MANAGER AT CUAUHTÉMOC MOCTEZUMA BREWING COMPANY
...through statistics, as guidelines and policies to govern our pricing systems.
STATISTICS PROVIDE BETTER MEASUREMENTS OF SALES ALLOCATIONS
We are convinced in our brewing company
that price has a significant impact on sales
and therefore on the company's revenues.
For that reason we conducted a series of studies
to measure how increases or changes in prices and promotions
would directly affect our sales;
to determine how, when there is an economic
or inflationary impact on our products
it affects the total volume of our portfolio,
or of a particular brand or packaging or presentation.
Statistics was what allowed us to determine, let me put it this way,
how much is just enough.
We all know that if prices increase consumer demand decreases,
but what is most important to know is to what extent, in what amount,
so that we can adjust production, distribution,
and sales, marketing and promotion strategy.
The importance of statistics is that we can adequately visualize
and better allocate our resources.
FORECASTS BASED ON STATISTICS HELP MAKE ACCURATE AND QUICK DECISIONS
We need statistics because...
...it tells us to what extent small effects on demand...
...can have large implications in production,
storage and transportation resources.
It makes us realize the importance of statistics
because that level of detail to anticipate many months
in advance what appropriate actions to take.
It's like the weather:
we all know that it will be hot during the summer
and cold during the winter.
The real value of a weather forecast
is knowing whether tomorrow
I need to dress warmly
and at what time the rain will fall
and how much rain will fall.
We all know when it's hot and when it's cold,
but that's not the value that a weather forecasting system brings.
Similarly, a good beer sales forecasting system allows us to anticipate...
with great detail what actions to take.
Just as a detailed weather
forecast allows you to take appropriate measures,
a proper beer sales forecast allows you to define in what year
to make an investment in a plant,
how many trucks to contract
with and it allows you to carry out a financial program
to streamline your cash flow
in order to anticipate your earnings,
your investment programs,
your marketing activities,
The difference in having a specialized system
is the level of detail that translates into tremendous results
when evaluating the business and making important decisions.
STATISTICS PROVIDES TOOLS TO MAKE YOU COMPETITIVE
Most organizations use the same business processes that we use.
Our company could have continued to use the same tools as always.
I think we would not have had a competitive advantage
and could not have developed efficiency in many aspects.
Unfortunately there are very few organizations...
that can see all these benefits without having worked properly with these methods.
I think if there had been less support from the executive committee of our company,
who has always been supportive of this type of projects,
we would have evolved like all other businesses,
based on what people think and believe.
In reality that's how most organizations work.
STATISTICS HAS APPLICATIONS IN MANY AREAS
In that context, in this International Year of the statistics,
I think one way to celebrate is to really provide the value that...
the practical application of statistics brings to what a farmer,
an agronomist, an engineer, an economist,
or a marketing specialist may need in their businesses.