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IU STARTED BY ASKING SAM
IF HE THOUGHT WE WERE HEADED
BACK INTO A RECESSION.
>> I THINK WE ARE IN FOR VERY
SLOW GROWTH, BUT AT LEAST BASED
ON MY COMPANIES, ETC., WE ARE
SEEING IS JUST KIND OF SLOWLY
GOING FORWARD.
I DO NOT SEE A DOUBLE DIP.
I DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
EVENT THAT IS GOING TO CHANGE
WHERE WE ARE AT.
EVERYBODY EXPECTED THAT THIS
RECESSION OR PANIC WOULD CREATE
THE KIND OF OPPORTUNITIES THAT
HAPPENED IN 1990, BUT THAT HAS
NOT AT ALL BEEN THE CASE.
THE COST OF CAPITAL FOR LENDING
INSTITUTIONS IS 0.
>> WE ARE IN A LOW INTEREST-RATE
ENVIRONMENT NOW, SO THERE IS NO
INCENTIVE.
>> THE ZERO INTEREST RATE.
EFFECTIVELY, THE BANKS THAT IN
1990 COULD NOT WAIT TO GET IT
OFF THEIR BALANCE SHEET BECAUSE
IT WAS COSTING THEM, TODAY, ARE
SITTING THERE SAYING, WELL, WE
WILL GET INTO THE MARKET SLOWLY,
WHICH IS WHAT THEY ARE DOING.
FORRESULT IS THAT PRICES
FULLY OCCUPIED ASSETS ARE
ALMOST MIRROR TO 2007.
>> WHERE ARE YOU GOING TO MAKE
MONEY IN THE U.S.?
>> THE MULTI-FAMILY SECTOR IS BY
FAR THE STRONGEST SECTOR IN
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE.
AND AGAIN, EVERYTHING ABOUT REAL
ESTATE IS SUPPLY AND DEMAND.
WE HAVE NOT BUILD ANYTHING SINCE
JULY OF 2007.
CONSEQUENTLY, APARTMENTS AND
EVERY OTHER FORM OF REAL ESTATE
IS BEING ABSORBED.
THAT IS THE GOOD NEWS.
THE BAD NEWS IS, EXCEPT IN
MULTI-FAMILY, THEY HAVE NOT BEEN
ABLE TO RAISE PRICES.
SO, YOU ARE FILLING BUILDINGS,
BUT YOU ARE NOT FILLING
BUILDINGS AT INCREASED RATES.
THE RESULT IS THAT I THINK WE
ARE GOING TO SEE A LOT MORE
RECAPITALIZATION AND
RESTRUCTURING AS PEOPLE