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Vitaly Naumkin, director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the RAS
If we look at the war which is taking place today between various opposition forces,
even such anti-Assad countries as the USA and the UK stated that they freeze arms supplies to the rebels,
as troops of the Islamic Front captured depots of the Syrian Free Army.
Fights between various troops of the opposition, victims, sharp rivalry became so tense,
but today there are people in the USA, including firmer heads of the CIA,
who say that victory of Assad would be the most beneficial scenario for the USA in Syria.
Two months ago it would have been impossible to hear such a statement from anyone.
It is something new.
But the biggest news is the development in Egypt.
This is the third Egyptian revolution.
Of course, ìrevolutionî is a formal word,
but letís call it a revolution to please our Egyptian brothers.
The first revolution was against Mubarakís regime;
the second revolution was a revolution of the Muslim Brotherhood
and the third revolution was a revolution of the militaries and the forces represented by Tamarod.
And this revolution changed the situation in the Middle East radically against political Islam.
This is an absolutely new situation which changed the balance of forces in the Middle East
and made many foreign players think about it, as they counted on political Islam.
The situation influenced the Arab-Israeli conflict, inside the Palestinian movement.
It influenced the situation over the Syrian crisis, over Iran, and so on.
Finally, this year ìthe Russian double shotî, as I call it, was important.
The Russian double shot is diplomatic activeness, diplomatic breakthroughs achieved with the help of Russia.
Our authorities are wise to emphasize cooperation with other partners,
including the USA where Obama also made unprecedented steps in the direction
against the forces which press on him.
The first breakthrough is connected with Syria,
i.e. the Russian initiative on the destruction of chemical weapons in Syria,
which was supported in the whole world and went beyond the field where it is working.
It is not only the elimination of chemical weapons in Syria,
but also a path to implementation of serious Russian initiatives
on establishing a mass destruction weapon free zone in the Middle East.
When Putin was in Valdai, he said that Israel doesnít need nuclear weapons at all
and Israel should be disarmed.
There were no such strict statements before.
I think it was something new that the Syrian initiative was supported by our partners,
not only friends, but partners who had influence in the Middle East and were involved into the processÖ
First of all, using the initiative in the direction is good.
Secondly, it is important for the Syrian internal situation as well.
Influence on internal Syrian situation is rather big; it prevented a military strike on Damascus,
in which American President could be involved, despite the will of his own nation,
when about 70% of the population were against it.
America is fed up to the back teeth with two wars.
There is the Afghan-Iraqi syndrome in the USA and Europe.
The situation will develop, according to the influence of the syndrome on public opinion.