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It sounds like a big political promise.
Hundred thousand of new jobs, unlimited economic growth, higher wages
for everybody. All this is supposed to become true with the free trade agreement between the European Union
and the USA.The negotiations however, take part only behin closed doors.
Everything under top security, it almost seems like the governments are afraid of the public, most likely
for a good reason. After all it is about nothing less than a completely new world trade order; about a gigantic free trade zone from Los Angeles
to Bucarest. But essentially it is about who is in charge, elected politicians or lobbyists
and major corporations. Stephan Stuchlik and Achim Pollmeier are clarifying for you what
is really coming ahead of us and the facts of this promised prosperity for everybody.
We have an appointment with the trade commissioner of the EU. Karel De Gucht, is really busy.
He is the man who, almost single-handed, negotiated the free trade agreement with the USA. And
his message is clear: "It is obvious that the TTIP will create economic growth and more
income for our citizens. I'm pretty sure that it will bring us hundreds of thousands of
jobs."
The free trade agreement with the USA, it is like a blessing will come over the world.
The biggest agreement ever brings a boom in trade and a job wonder,
according politicians say. "Such a free trade agreement would be a big
step forward which would also create new job opportunities."
Grandiose promises,
but experts fear that politicians
are sacrificing democratic rights -
in favor of the power of transnational companies. "It is a general attack
on consumer protection standards, environmental regulations, laws to stabilize financial markets
on both sides of the atlantic" And this is
what american companies want to bring on the European market,
chicken which have been disinfected with chlorine or hormone meat - not allowed in Europe.
And chemicals which are prohibited in the EU due to health hazard.
The EU commission is assuring, these kind of fears are reasonless.
As matter of fact the free trade agreement is however already showing it's shadow sides,
says Dagmar Roth-Behrendt, after all the vice president
of the european parliament.
She has already been asked to turn a blind eye to food laws
out of consideration for the free trade agreement.
"Why is it possible that a high official from the directorate-general for trade
comes to me and say "Please,please, please don't you defeat this,
let it pass, otherwise the united states will not believe us and cancel the negotiations.
What kind of proposal is this legislation to give way for cloning, while in the middle of the negotiations? These are already
hard evidence on how it is supposed to continue from now on.The trillions worth agreement,
is negotiated almost entirely in secret, yet it's not only concerned
with general food law but also with our social standards,
the financial markets and our labour legislation,
simply everything. Are we getting ripped of in favor of transnational companies?
The EU commission reacts on these kind of concerns,
however not content related. One should rather sell the agreement better,
as it says in this internal strategic paper,
the EU agency insists to stop talking about the concerns of the consumers
but instead to only talk about
"the goal to achieve growth and more job opportunities".
"A big step forward which would also create new job opportunities", "new job opportunities", "more jobs more growth,
this is how we will overcome the financial crises".
There are several studies which support these claims,
in germany all carried out by the IFO institute (Institute for Economic Research)
in munich for the ministry of economics and the Bertelsmann foundation.
There is talks of substantial effects, up till 160. 000 new jobs in germany only.
Experts doubt these kind of prognoses in principle.
So does Jagdish Bhagwati (Columbia University), one of the most prestigious commerce economists in the world.
"And those are very problematic, these studies,
if you question the applied underlying economic assumptions, you're getting close to mere free expression of opinion.
So a lot of people who actually have long years of experience say, studies are not the way to resolve this problem."
In germany however, impressive numbers are made public,
a flood of jobs, a tremendous effect on the job market.
But scarcely anybody has scrutinized what lays actually behind these beautiful numbers. How do the scholars come up with this?
One of the assumed preconditions is for example that trade with the USA will increase by 80%,
that there will be no fluctuation of trade rates, one of the studies even takes as basis a completely unrealistic single market scenario
just as if the USA would apply all European legislation.
Now comes the kicker, the main author of all german studies, Gabriel Felbermayr from the IFO institute,
does himself say that at the end of the day the effects won't be that big.
"The basic message, which should be already clear to everyone who reads this,
is that A: the employment effects won't be negative, they are positive in all the different scenarios,
and also B: that, even in the most optimistic scenario, effects are small, we are talking about 0,4 % of employment."
Wait a moment! The main author of the studies admit that the agreement will only be worth little.
He agrees, but adds that it is the politicians also the ministry of economics, who sell the small numbers as job wonder.
"Feel free to accuse the federal ministry that
the information policy is not
as blanced as it could have been.
You can also accuse the commission.
I would say "Yes" this kind of accusation is well grounded." The EU commission is not only talking about job opportunities,
they also promise huge growth,
120. billions of economic growth for the EU.
Meanwhile the trade commissioner travels around to announce this message.
In fact this huge number, in accordance to his own study, means an additional growth of no more than
0.5 %, and all within 10 years.
"Which means it is 0.05% in average per year. This is anything like the big effect that you usually talk about."
"Ehm....
let me just interrupt."
"Is this the study we have had conducted?" "Yes" "Can I see it?"
The commissioner checks the calculation one more time. But the study is clear.
"0,49% is that right?" "Ehm, first of all we should not argue with percentages." "But you are doing that I'm sorry."
"Ehm, first of all we should not argue with percentages." "But you are doing that I'm sorry."
"I'm saying that we will put away most large trade barriers in the vast amount of sectors.That's what I'm saying."
But it is about who will be in charge generally. Monitor posses a secret positioning document by the European Commission
thereupon all new laws and regulations shall be examined
by a "council for prudential regulation" on their effects to generate more trade.
This council is supposed to support the inclusion of lobbyists from the very beginning,
even before the actual legislators like the parliament.
"We might as well just dissolve the european parliament
and many national parliaments in this realm,too. We can have it directly decided
by the Industry and the Trade Commissioner and maybe also the Minister for Agriculture in the USA.
This is great! It will probably save us a lot of time and money. But the damage for the consumer in the European Union will be for sure."
The Commission says ,"the council for prudential regulation is only a proposal", what might happen with this during the negotiations however, is unknown - they are conducted in secret.
"They've been conducting negotiations in private so far
and only with representatives of the industries? This is fundamentally wrong!"
The free trade agreement is planed to be signed already in 2015. Until then,
they will continue telling us the fairytale of large growth and of many job opportunities.
By the way, while the negotiations for the trade agreement between Mexico and the USA were conducted, it was promised to bring upon golden years,too.
The truth is however, that since the implementation of the agreement growth decreased and unemployment increased in Mexico.
Especially farmers lost their means of existence as they can't compete with the cut price imports from the USA.
So much for burst of growth and prosperity for everybody.