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really offsets
and joining us now is Daniel Levy I love both the
European Council on Foreign Relations and the New America Foundation
Daniel I don't how to get thanks Michael are you
out great okay that sounds great it's great to have you so
the want to open up with is I
we just are hearing news added each chipped I
that the former president who was deposed President Mubarak in 2011
through this kind of Confluence I love
other protests in Tahrir Square and also the military in fact it looks as if he's
gonna be released from custody and charges are gonna be dropped against
them and I
I think at this point to me would you say that this is the kind of symbolic
completion above what switches like a
a counterrevolution in fact I think that's it
Jerry actual why as portraying it
that graciously it it shows
number one the who's really in charge this is that each state is the same
folks
it shows the degree of confidence they have right now
that they can take a step like this I think it shows a couple other things as
well
18 that the judiciary
to some others liked to suggest I
are some kind of the
a balanced middle check-and-balance
force I in this whole saying including the poorest
president now a nominally
president in this new setup coming to do just three it shows that they are part
of that old
each state date disbanded parliament they went against the elected president
a week see clearly most of the judiciary
are beholden to unfortunately I think it's part of a
other conscious test but to
provoke mmm alright think that the new military leadership
are inviting are pushing opera soaking
to date to be some kinda violent backlash because
that legitimizes their narratives that this is somehow a
part about anti-terrorist what and it legitimizes
crackdown right that makes perfect sense to me
as a exhorted add to that does this actually
on this is sort of plate
at was very controversial a year ago when president Morsi was
attempting to push through some really aggressive reforms to things like the
judiciary and a lot of people
a reacted very negatively to what he was pushing
does what's happening with the judiciary now split
not necessarily justify what he was doing the kind of put a different light
on it look I think
that was the and understanding
lapd there was an awful lot
that would have to be changed that would have to be
built almost from from the fresh
East egypt was going to to the terminology the weekend to use was going
to have a successful democratic transitions
and that that was an appreciation the
much of this would take time somebody perhaps had to
be moved on sooner rather than later
and I think there may be two takeaways from what we've seen so far faster ball
the the Brotherhood was probably not ambitious enough
enough what it tried to do
while it was in power intended underlining
mechanisms also the old regime but number two
how difficult that would have been and I think it would be fair to say we also
how difficult it would be impossible
it walls if you didn't have a broader coalition
said she lost the Brotherhood doing this and I think
that is one of the criticisms levelled against president Morsi
up but I think what we see from the next
East there was a eighty
state that it would take he is in years
to get the better of
and it is an interesting analogy to make a turkey
is it just how long it has taken to
really undermine the role that military for instance straight plays in life in
Turkey even up to and including this latest trial
and the part of that analogy is that secular liberals forces
also in turkey when they were in power remain somewhat
circumspect to a loss to the deep state
in our in school on way
because they saw the deep space is double walk against the Islamist
an Egypt of course we way are you in the process
but it does seem that again the so-called liberal secular forces
up hopes about the purse for limited
I they would have thought limited democracy we're seeing no democracy
it'll probably it's a military junta now
I'll to the possibility of Islamist rule
Gregory it worked out better where you could have had a strong reliance
between Islamist Democrats and not Islamists democrats
with Tom no in turn to the last two years the question is will we have to
sign out in the future
right and I actually Daniel Levy could shoot arm
for some other for our audience define what the deep state
is cuz I think that's a really important terms kinda understand we're talking
about a place like Egypt
what let me next it look every country has had its
to bits of its political
system its affiliates the way it is world
so transparent and open and the dates that are
that are less so I guess one could look at the American system
and now look at some us how some lobbying influences work in congress and
say america has an element to taste
or more aspects of the national security bureaucracy or something like that
didn't hear you I'm sorry I i'm I'm saying something maybe something like
the National see
security bureaucracy or something like that as well a it
exactly that but also kept up to the role that the
they're all the pics financial be commonplace in in the system
but in a place like Egypt be which is so much
for the town in terms of being behind on on on the democratic wrote you have a
you have a system look to have various
and people all of the military
backed up by a judiciary that was a
up 0.8 and sees itself told in the subway
state bureaucracy especially state up security
democracy the Intel the interior ministry
arm want to switch
acts up including the role that the military to ease %uh
in the economy not although which adds up to a very powerful
complex Nathan Brown whose a
scholar at carnegie is written about not just the
each state that the broad States and that we've seen towards stayed in place
there are different ways of looking at best
but that's the basic concept so getting back to the
analogies you drew with Turkey which i think is a very interesting one because
it it seems like arm one aspect in a historical context of what's going on is
that
some other kinda roots %uh modern terrorist movements like
al Qaeda are routed and kinda
unusual crackdown in Egypt against
I the Muslim Brotherhood that began decades ago so there's kind of
that wave oppression and abuse connected with some other threats we
we face in the in a modern context in Turkey
are even though some people might see air to one is kinda have
you know cracking down on protesters and in a hand in public parks in Istanbul on
things like that he's far from perfect leader
but he was the product I love islamic politics in Turkey that actually
kinda renewed its commitment to democratic process in the face
I love a the real did the deep state in Turkey in fact some what we do you think
that the
where does the Muslim Brotherhood kinda go from here
in the in the faces this is their a possibility
Ave other continued renewed commitment to some type of democratic process or do
you think
there's a you know a retraction from the process for free
obvious reasons
can I think this is obviously wanna things that the
I'm not military regimes had you been a change in Egypt now
plays all tries to use its 80 which is it
that it can use the anti-terror
I storyline both domestically
and internationally now
if we almost as you suggested seeing season comes through
we play as I'll general not
against the original some somebody second-generation
a to leadership site to not feast
the Muslim Brotherhood has communist rule
number of iterations spend to get to the place
where we're at in the latter Mubarak used when they participated in
parliamentary elections
even know the extent of their a
he representation I was circumscribed
and right through to deciding they would run and even run to the presidency which
they said they were going to do initially
I'll want Egypt seem to have a a
he also to assess system that they'd be given her
affect crack at it so to speak so the
the Brotherhood including this generation a problem leaders the people
are now
back under arrest many of these people hold known crackdowns in the past
no lengthy spells in prison in the past but
their contemporaries but many of them would not be alive today
as a result of previous crackdowns today no just
how Louis Clayton's
you going back to a pulse alt being an underground movement
I'll being a move would bring day cheesin
armed resistance is say no how much a price
as a movement and as individuals they're liable to pay service
it took a long time to get said the place that they got to in terms of
standing up to the more hardline I
some faced Islamist elements I'll
in the fight over whether to embrace democracy or not in this fight over
whether to embrace elections or not
the al Qaeda tourists another group of course said
I'll democracy Weston name Western import
the I N T a Islamist
crossword not something that can be justified in colonic towns
and right now of course what you're seeing
ease that schism Activision is playing out in a way
in which those who I think when some
distance enid internalizing a degree
of democracy say are being terribly weekend
up some say you shouldn't have done that you shouldn't have gone there in the
first place does have a different interpretation
I'll old Islamic doctrine
how that doctrine interacts with contempt sighting in Tempe politics
I and certainly it would take more violent of
to helping strengthened I don't think the Brotherhood
celts are about to go down that path but other Islamist groups
both took formal organized groups and Indiana individuals and people doing
copycat
and out ideas on that site alone
will feel important and they will increasingly have
a wider 21 or very disenchanted disaffected
am very very angry people to appeal to in to draw on
and that will play it seems right into the military strategy
love kinda turning you know just making this a
out and war on terror frame and I I think that that brings us to
how events are being perceived and
and in Western countries and I think you know
there was certainly sympathy when people were out on the streets protesting Morsi
and a lot of kinda
general observers here perceive that is you know maybe people out kind of
pushing to preserve the your that original goals at the Thai rear uprising
but now is this turns in to more overtly what
it you know certainly was too great extent from the beginning which really
is a military coup
and we look at arm where we might have leverage points to
influence events on the ground and I I'm just wondering if do you think that part
of the problem
from the from a Western perspective is a just the continued inability
to see that Islam and democracy can be compatible
and that's allowing us to
in some respects be ambivalent about something that maybe that was happening
in like Chile or something would be much more obvious to us
I think you're absolutely right eighties
Kingdom to redistrict call conceptually too many people to make
number one course have our own prejudices
are we still so live in the shadow of 9/11
which currently live in the shadow alt an awful lot most
I Islamophobia and an anti-arab racism the
exists Austin in our society is the results of course the fact that
to push them to the wat I not gonna be a liberal cup of tea
in any sense of the term there republicans guidos
whether it comes to women's white KY school according to progressive issues
too
that I think what good raise questions as to just how democratic they can be
I think in the context it can temporally Egypt
chiaki would be you make the best of what you've got
benefits murderous military
dictators foresees these guys getting bogged down on the street is
I think I think to my mind is quite clear I'm
Y-one sympathies would like but nevertheless ask that's a
I can understand what difficult out think to
people to I get their heads around
and then many takes you into this territory where
each easier for people to depiction in
kinda scary and unsympathetic times when for instance will
will hear people saying look they paid the ones who went out on the streets
they wanted martyrdom they were ready for martyrdom it's a totally different
mindset
act I find out really
unacceptable actually yeah because in most instances when
when when people put themselves
all the line to the course in this case because let's face it is
is a democratically elected president being deposed by a coup
in most circumstances as you say chili or anywhere else
would say that is a worthy noble cause and the people willing to pay the
ultimate price
we normally see that is something very noble and I don't think we should apply
a totally different set of rules
because of the nature of the people who are willing to make that sacrifice
these people don't want to to get killed
we saw yesterday I'll to take redirected marches
in order to try and avoid bloodshed
yeah no I thats that makes perfect sense I
one final question Daniel Levy do you think it's time for the united states
for European countries to
whole aid I from Egypt or do you think that that would just kind of push
Egypt a closer to countries like Saudi Arabia and other sort of conservative
forces
in the Middle East that are that are backing the coup right now
festival a some European countries have suspended their age ready
a spending arm sales I European foreign ministers
a meeting on Wednesday on
to discuss what steps to take a
president I'm has overseen out
suspension order translation all 12 joint military exercises which is really
love shopping on the scale
also response that one can get to the military assistance continues
I think that more does have to be done
Intel all I wouldn't
a a response that demonstrates that we are serious
18 in stop being OK
I'm not whether or not this you get a change change in Egypt and I don't think
we have decisively
which I don't think we have to decide spending
like Stickles we should be calibrated signals correctly on the scale and just
canceling
military exercises yes not enough in the basic what happened
and we should also be be doing the right thing and sending the signal
elsewhere does that put Egypt into other people's arms
that it happened anyway day you hadn't at the military
to you at the sound the up the United and perhaps
Arab Emirates another's lining up to welcome the change
and wassup up far more in assistance
United States and Europe act together can or will
of stock public position that Egypt into an anti-western
camp I i would say the following if this is a trial again
being on our site I continue skateparks
I don't think you're really going to buy then
as an ally I think Justin just as happened in the past
the moment the military a leaders
she didn't rest 29 against West
into Valley popular simplicity
against the West start up their own
I'll narrative to their own legitimacy
they will do it whether we go soft on them today or whether we go *** them
today
so better to show them that we have to pay to back down
and ability to do the right thing and the other reason to do that
is that there was a political started the business talks in Egypt
to the small western oriented and that has been backing the school evening
torching it
and they should know it's not going to be business as usual it's not going to
be normal relations
if they are not a current on the military backed out so we don't have to
decisive let's reach
but we should be doing the right thing makes perfect sense and also as we joked
about
around here a little bit cynically when when Obama canceled the bilateral
military exercises the Egyptian military said that that's okay we're all our
hands are actually pretty for the moment
so I so I think I that's why I play a game of brinksmanship
a man with a switch to the other reason we should be doing more they're saying
you know what
we'll need your help and to be honest if that's the case I think america has
better
places to spend its money Europe as better places to spend its money
and we should shouldn't French now makes perfect sense
I Daniel Levy the European Council on Foreign Relations and the New America
Foundation as well as a man with a
a strong inner rabbi as we're talking jacket for the interview
thank you so much for your time at really appreciate it
thanks so much thanks a lot like a Hokitika