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bluebell oli into guess for your guys
of professor stephen cancer joins us is booked is a reset iran turkey america's
future and it's kind of past many faces of
welcomed pressure
great to be here
all right now
let let's talk about it
the the general idea behind about
are you saying that we should
realign ourselves as far as what allies were playing in the middle east and
perhaps israel is not the best ally to have errors
is that right or or my statement lost
well there's something to what you say i think that's what
how these countries became
very interesting angered countries are very different
from the rest of their muslim neighbors
and then in the end i talk about what all this means now that i've told you
everything about
what turkey is and what he wanted so why is that interesting
and i come up with what amounts to about by three part conclusion my first
implosion is
our policy in the middle east is
hopelessly stuck in a past era
we have a great policy to deal with the middle east of thirty years ago but
that's not daring in our policy doesn't change the middle east has changed
form endlessly the threats for the u_s_ have grown but also there
very tantalizing opportunities for us there but
we can take advantage of them because our policy is not change it so that's
point number one
point number two is if we want to have a new approach to the middle east
we should probably try to work
with other countries
i think that the u_s_ does need partners needs to listen to advice
however
we're not a very good advice taking nation
america's good at giving advice nor us a bit of listening
and we feel for example in the middle east
we get
the middle east other countries don't get they don't understand including
countries that live there
and we should therefore tell them what to do it not listen to their advice
i think we gotta get past that and find some partners and in my third
part of my thesis is
if you're going to find partners
who would they be
not tomorrow or next week for the whole
twenty-first century
ob and i think you look for countries that have to qualifications number one
they should be countries whose
long-term strategic goals are somewhat parallel to your own
and number two who they should be countries whose societies are something
like yours you don't have just uh...
relationships between governments regime to regime or
ruling elite two ruling elite so these two when you look at these two criteria
countries who strategic interest parallel hours and countries who
societies or something like hours turkey and iran are the only two
really because i think a lot of people would look at them go up obviously
insert
while israel has been a valuable ally for the united states in the past ten
most of the cold war israel and saudi arabia were our two allies and we shaped
our policy toward that part of the world according to
what seemed to be good for israel and what seemed to be good for
saudi arabia
with saudi arabia i feel like there's a lot of reasons why this relationship was
not
societies have nothing in common and the strong influence of our radical
fundamentalism they are in the money the from saudi arabia that's going to
promote militant anti americanism around the world
makes them
less than ideal partners for us now israel is a little different
i think it is right for the u_s_
tube continue to be a partner in a supporter of friend israel but
when i was in israel researching this book
i noticed the interesting to current in israeli opinion
and i think that these parallel here in the u_s_ that
there's a growing number of people
in israel i think we're asking themselves
is our government taking steps
that seems smart to protect us in the short run but actually in the long run
are undermining our security
i really believe that israel
is not going to be able to defend itself indefinitely
only by
military
the best protection for israel over the long run
is com neighborhood here for
anything that calms the region down
is good for israel even if some israeli leaders tell us at the moment that this
is a panel
well i i couldn't agree more with that but
how does that affect our ability to be long-term allies with them yeah i mean
a suit
but i'm not so shouldn't assume that they're going to go in that direction is
your assumption the opposite of that they're not going to go in that
direction
and that hands their the warring with the neighbors than does not make them a
good ally or
what you're thinking along those lines
i feel that we can't be held hostage
to the hot house environment of internal israeli politics
and that's what's essentially shaping the direction israel the political
system in israel is quite strange it and it gives a special influence to
fringe in radical and fundamentalist groups
and that shapes israeli day to day policy so over the long run i don't
think it's right for the u_s_
to decide what's good for israel anymore by listening only
so what the leaders of israel telescopic we've got to let we're maybe we should
be participating in that decision
yeah i'm not know we totally agree i bet that i don't think that's
elise from our perspective i don't think it's controversial so now of course
other part that
made a lot of people in washington recruit if they're watching
could go what
is that your thoughts on a rotblat why do you think there are natural allied to
us women
right now we're being told by the establishment that there are pa panic
it's true we've been fed this sasser axis of evil cartoonish idea about it
run and certainly the iranian regime is not very pleasant and they'd be a very
prickly partner
in this incarnation
unless
ghraib is a really fascinating country and i've just come back from couple of
weeks there
there are two things about iran that i think qualify it as a good partner for
the u_s_ first of all
although iranian regime is quite repressive out the society's amazingly
democrat
like at people had generations to assimilate the ideas of
democracy there if democracies is a system they chose themselves that was
not imposed on them
seventy percent of iranians are under the age of thirty
so you have
the makings of a very democratic country if we can somehow peel off
that religious regime and i think that will happen as we move forward
the more unusual concept that i'm trying to get across is that
not only our iran in the u_s_
not fated to be enemies ever but we actually have a lot in common in terms
of our strategic interest what would that be
first of all
iran has a huge ability to stabilize
in fact they can probably do more to stabilize a rock than any country in the
world including the united states
we are deter too
get out of a rock
but we don't want to rock to erupt in violence as soon as we wait
and run
can help make sure that doesn't happen if it wants to do
iran also has huge ability to influence afghanistan
a lot of afghanistan used to be part of the run up until iran lost a few wars in
the nineteenth century run is
very deeply
network inside afghanistan
you run is eager to assure the free flow of energy from the persian gulf to the
west
iran is the bitter enemy of radical movements like columbine and al-qaeda
so going forward newt's the interests
which don't changes
regimes jie
you see that actually
no strategic goal that the u_s_ wants to reach in the middle east
can be achieved
without it
and in fact of course a raha democracy until we overthrow
which iraq obama knowledge in his speech in cairo so
we women have fifty you're wrong direction that with a rock
so by and yet the service their heads explode when you come this
arron being them puzzle panels country it is now
is definitely
partly our fault
it we hadn't overthrown there democracy and impose their shaadi gave
a great of majority of the oil revenue to us in the british we would now the
problem we had you know with i a telus
now having said that
how do you deal with the short term where you have a regime that is
undemocratic
in a big selections
illegitimate an at a post or interest
here's what i think i'd like to do with iran op
if they democratic movement in your own were telling us isolate those people
don't talk to them treat them as pariahs
then i think we would want to listen carefully to that because those are the
people who support values that we profess to support but they're not
telling us that
the democratic movement in iran
isn't a bad position it doesn't have any good options
the best of the bad options
is that the rejeen would somehow be drawn out of its paranoia and its fear
sold the people who support what we would like to call american values in
iran
are telling us
try to engage our leaders now how could we do that
not the way we're doing it now are present policy
is to tell them
you have to negotiate on the nuclear issue and accept restrictions on your
nuclear program
but it's not realistic to expect iran to give up
what is effectively the highest card its diplomatic hand but without getting
something in return so what i'd like to see a stick was what we did with china
when we made that opening in the nineteen seventies which is
make a list of all the things we don't like about a run at what they do in the
world
but also ask you one
to make a similar list what would they like us to change and what would they
want from optus
and then see if you are or putting up the agenda
if the iranians are willing to make a bargain in exchange for things that we
can provide for iraq
but professed his riverboats your actually talking about actual
negotiations
and you know that establishment bc frowns upon
they kicked what newt up no we told the what to do it i don't tell us what to do
what i don't negotiate with them is just a matter how much they bend to our
welfare your exactly right and this is the big problem with our relations with
iran is that
we're being guided by our emotions we are really angry at you weren't with an
angry at them for thirty years and we want to
hit them back because we feel a bit asked
it's like that little boys in the sandbox routine
emotions
is always the enemy sound foreign policy
if we lead emotion outside the room
just think cooley only about what's good for hess
this is not a giveaway is not something where interviewers just think about
what's good for ops
and then you begin to realize
some cover-up rocha with iran
we actually be a great week
for our security interests ls one more question around we're trying to
professor scenic as a result of the book reset
iran turkey in america's future
when it comes to
iran today you know we obviously had elections over rate and then we have the
green movement but you wrote in one of your articles that the green movements
in a lot of trouble so
and it might actually be over
bob tell me a little bit about that
and then then what callow what they did wrong
out like this come back from a couple weeks travelling
around iran
and this question was the main question and i went there to as to what happened
to the green we were reading all those stories about hundreds of thousands of
people on the street now we'll see those stories tall
i got more or less the same answer from
the dozens of people that i spoke to on streets against this question and they
said moral estates
we tried that
it didn't work
they'd beat us police arrested jailed and we don't want to be beaten anymore
thrown in jail diverse strong were footwear for it now
so it's over for now we probably will get
the result that we want over the long run but out were not going to get it
immediately
so a lot
that is probably understandable for a country as twenty-five centuries of
history to think that way but
that's not our schedule in america we want something is going to happen there
right now and nothing is going to happen
what you know but while that also
commotion was happening at the elections there readies work of this error
i would say on the show they got to do it now because if they don't
of course over the course of time
it's a dictatorial government they will could pull people and they will rest in
the report for them
and elwin it so the only chance that that movement had was
in that immediate timeframe
and one st retract though and and and or in the position they're in now
that doesn't mean that it's going to have an annex amitag though another
thirty years without
i don't know what happened to him in square
and then they web agonist ralph
i don't think that they're going to have to wait for another thirty years but
that you are right sat there's a reason why governments use repression against
protestors and that is that usually works
now u_s_ what went wrong with the movement ob i think you can see at least
three weaknesses in that movement from the perspective of today first of all is
there's no coherent leadership
second
there's no coherent program
they had not even answered the fundamental question deal want to
overthrow the religious really weird more reform
you've got to have an answer to that if you got a program
and the third thing they lack is a big social base
this is the major difference between this protest movement
and the protest movement that overthrew the shah in the nineteen seventies that
movement
had support at every level of society
the queen movement was never able to achieve
and well look at other a little split on it
but let me throw some in congress who are out there
i thought that in the midst of those uprisings
that if they didn't poor people and i'm not nestle advocating some to say as a
looking back on it
what would work and what would that work
in a report to work they had to pull a couple of guys out of the buildings
dragon in the streets
and honestly killed
okay if they
because
if the regime is not scared for its life
they're not going to bob turley changes by independent involuntarily image
but there's the other side of this and i think this is something very important
to understand about iran's
there's no people in the world who understand better than iranians
how dangerous violent overthrows of governments can be
they have a terrible tragic experience from the late seventies everybody at
every level of society united against the shot even people who hated each
other and totally different ideas about where iran should go
they all agreed on one thing
whatever comes next
it's gotta be something better
what happened
they've got something worse
how i think it run-ins have deeply assimilated this idea
it's dangerous to overthrow a regime you don't like violently because there can
always be something worse and i think i have a relay that
binary i'm not advocating for right infinite i've always had to give her
non-violence
but i'm just say is a matter of practical
thought or you can overthrow the government or are you not and might
guesses if u if u if you want to overthrow the government they are the
poor people in the streets
asked him politely wasn't get the job that they didn't get the check if you
want to do it at that time yes you would have had to do that we can see that now
and i think it runs were not willing to do that
overtime
abt i think the rise of this young generation is going to resolve this
problem you are going to see a transition we're going to get the result
that we want in iran but it's going to be on their schedule and a big problem
is
will the centrifuges keeps bearing and will we wind up in some huge nuclear
confrontation before we get there
our first missouri's oracle up basically at a time here that we didn't has
entered it all
show is called a young turks all those and america show obviously but
you would disagree that there is a fantastic shipped over
turkey is the model we would like other countries in the muslim middle east the
final it's a thriving democracies any booming economy
if you're walking around in iran and syria a and iraq bara age etc
and asking yourself
what kind of country what i'd like to have been in the lab
turkey is the great example and that's why anything we can do
to promote turkey as an example for the islamic world is going to for them but
especially good for us up you know what i had a real quick call thomas friedman
wrote this absurd article here do you know you know my thought on it
sadly peter you're from us and as below fencing that's it now matter there yes
israel
their use to us
what what is the right kind of
thought it's crazy to think the turkeys either turning islamist in a society or
that it's foreign policy is there's a lot of anger in turkey not so much
against israel but specifically about casa invasion of gaza occupation
that's what's causing this uprising there if israel had not invaded gaza
interest was israel it would've maintain the same good relationship with her view
that it's head over many decades
but there is an intense emotion in turkey about what's happening in gaza
i hope this relationship isn't frayed at too badly because it's important for
israel to have a abridged out of its isolation turkey is the only muslim
countries in the middle east that can play that role so that relationship is
very important for peace and i hope turkey doesn't learn a bad lesson from
us which is shape your foreign policy while you're really angry
yes that it didn't work out for us uh... after nine eleven
all right now the book is called reset iran turkey in america's future adak
cancer has a reading today actually friend los angles seria at seven pm
pacific at borders in westwood thank you so much for your through appreciate
loving with young turks