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Risk appetite is given a strong lift in Asian session as Chinese trade data stunned investors.
China's trade surplus jumped to $31.6b in December comparing to expectation of $20.1b.
Exports rose an impressive 14.1% comparing to expectation of around 5.0% increase. Imports
also 6% comparing to expectation of 3.5%. For the whole year, trade surplus soared 48.1%
to $231.1b with exports up 7.9% to $2.05T and imports up 4.3% to $1.82T. Asian equities
are generally higher with Nikkei up nearly 100 pts while HK HSI is up over 230 pts. The
data has in particular given Aussie a push against dollar and yen.
ECB and BoE meetings are the major focuses today. The ECB will very likely leave the
main refinancing rate at 0.75% and the asset purchase program unchanged in January. A prominent
message delivered at the press conference last month was that some members of the Governing
Council favored a rate cut, but that the "prevailing consensus" was to keep rates unchanged in
the end. With the lack of material change in the macroeconomic situation in the region,
we expect the central bank to stand on the sideline this month, while maintaining the
accommodative stance.
On the data front, New Zealand trade deficit widened slightly to NZD 700m in November.
Australian building approvals missed expectation and rose 2.9% mom in November. Canadian new
housing price index is expected to rise 0.2% mom in November while building permits are
expected to rise 2.4% mom. Initial jobless claims in US is expected to drop slightly
to 365k in the week ended January 5 while wholesale inventories are expected to rise
0.3% in November.