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Let's tweet this, I'm looking at Twitter ( NYSE:TWTR )
after-hours. The company announced earnings that well, let's just say
they didn't go too well, at least not what the market was expecting.
A few different things, first of all,
just as general note that's pretty obvious to all but the most casual
observer,
trading after hours is really not particularly advisable unless you
have extra money that you want to give away or you
just feel lucky.
But you can see a lot of times, not always, and that's the problem,
a lot of times the first to move is wrong.
You've got somebody anticipating the news, or maybe they see the headline
number and they do something stupid like buy.
Meanwhile the smart guys, it's kind of like the young bull and the old bull
on top of the hill and the young bull says to the old bull, "Hey, let's go, let's
run down there,
et cetera, et cetera." And the old bull says, "Hey, why don't we just walk?"
And so that's what's happened here, you've got the young bulls just
rushing in, buying this stock, and the smarter guys are sitting back waiting
for a little more information;
$70.00 down to
well below 60.00, like 56.00, 57.00.
That's a pretty big move and if you're the guy that bought up here,
you're selling somewhere. It could be during the conference call this stock goes from
$59.00
up to 79.00, who knows. The bottom line is this is kind of like the Badlands of
trading here,
after-hours, simply put; you just don't want to do it.
We can even look at the 1-minute chart.
If you're a nimble trader and you know what you're doing, you can trade
this move,
but this move is over now; this is something else.
So let's look at the set up for tomorrow;
first of all this is the first earnings report that Twitter ( NYSE:TWTR ) has done
since going public. If I recall correctly
they weren't particularly that transparent before
they went public, I mean there was kind of a deal
where, because of their size or the number of investors they had, or
something,
they didn't really have to publish a whole bunch of stuff,
and guess what, they didn't. And so you've got all these analysts on,
all across the board, giving you numbers that they're just pulling out of their
hat
about how Twitter ( NYSE:TWTR ) is going to be a $100.00 stock, or
Twitter ( NYSE:TWTR ) is going to be a $20.00 stock. It was all across the
board,
nobody really knew for sure though,
like a lot of analysts, always confident, sometimes correct.
So what do we do now? First of all
the stock is down, we've got some data, I am NOT going go into fundamentals here
because
you're not looking to me for fundamentals,
and also I'm not smart enough to really be able to tell you
whether this stock is cheap or expensive. But I will tell you this because I've got a
pretty good memory,
when the stock was down here,
40ish, there were a lot of folks saying,
"You know, the subscribers just aren't what people think they are going to be,
these guys are very popular, but they're not going to generate the kind
of revenues that are being forecasted so this
is a wonderful story that's going to have a really bad ending."
There were a lot of folks that were looking for Twitter ( NYSE:TWTR ) to go
lower, and frankly I believe
I shorted this stock, I shorted it somewhere, I don't exactly remember when
because on my losing trades, just like my profitable trades, I just kind of book it
and move on.
But I know that I lost money on the short,
I think I was shorting Twitter ( NYSE:TWTR ) here, but it might have been up here. The
bottom line was I wasn't expecting it to go lower, the technicals looked
like this stock could go lower and so I
fired off a short and then promptly got stopped out because the
stock continued
to move higher. So this is one of those that have kind of
confounded a lot of people, myself included.
But now