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We all have a sense of the passage of time. This sense comes from observation.
Seasons come and go. In the first quarter of the year, winter turns to spring. Leaves
and flowers appear, and by mid-summer, all is green. This change is echoed in autumn
when the same leaves and flowers disappear and winter returns. The comparison between
the summer and winter tells us that we are in the presence of change. We are prisoners
of the cycle of the seasons, but this is not a bad thing. Seasonal changes can be predicted,
and this allows people to specify the time that crops should be planted. People know
that there will be sufficient sunshine and rain to raise the crops. Unlike the cycle
of the seasons, some changes cannot be predicted. This is true with changes in culture. With
regard to culture, change can happen suddenly. In the recent past, women could not vote in
elections. We heard the complaints of men that women were not intelligent enough to
vote. Today, in almost all countries in the world, women have the right to vote. Ideas
about right and wrong also change over time. Books and movies that were once banned are
now freely available. In Christian countries, people quoted from the Bible in order to support
laws banning some activities. For example, one hundred years ago, women could not own
land in many countries. Changes in technology are also difficult to predict. A little over
one hundred years ago, the Wright brothers flew in the first heavier-than-air airplane.
That first rough flight was less than one hundred meters in length and just a meter
or so above the earth. Today, we can send robot vehicles to Mars that can drive around
and send pictures and data back to earth. We can specify where these vehicles go and
what information they send back. Changes in information technology are also dramatic.
Once, books were hand copied and therefore rare and very expensive. The invention of
printing approximately 600 years ago made books more widely available. Today, the Internet
provides almost unlimited information at minimal cost. These examples show not only that technological
change can occur suddenly, but also that the pace of such change is increasing. A few generations
ago, the lives of grandparents, parents and children were very similar. There was little
change from generation to generation. Today, by contrast, technology used by young people
might be unrecognizable to older generations. Our grandparents or great-grandparents used
letters to communicate. Today, we use email or online chat sessions. This gap is certain
to become even wider in the future as the pace of change speeds up. Today s high technology
will slip behind and seem old-fashioned in shorter and shorter periods. It is as if we
were on an express train bound for the future. The train is speeding up and there are no
brakes. The train shakes and the ride gets rough as the speed increases faster and faster.
The view from the train windows is unfamiliar. We ask the conductor where we are going. The
reply comes back: The future.