Tip:
Highlight text to annotate it
X
This is the world in 1959. The size of this bubble represents the number of children born
in the world. It was 100 million children born in 1959. On this axis, here, we can see
the death among these children. Child mortality was 150 deaths per 1000 children born. This
axis goes from 20 deaths per 1000 to 500 deaths per 1000. This axis down here shows the income
per person. It was 3000 dollars per year in 1959. the axis goes from 500 dollars all the
way to 30000 dollars. But the world was, obviously, very unequal. I will show this by splitting
the world bubble into country bubbles. Look. Each bubble is a country, the size is the
number of births. I will zoom up to show you what has changed since. The blue ones here
are the developing countries. he brown ones here are the industrialized countries. And
you can see that the industrialized countries had higher income and lower child mortality.
But what has changed? I will start the world and you can see, year by year, how the child
mortality is falling. Here we go. It's falling, it's going down, child mortality is getting
lower. Income is increasing. The former developing countries are coming into the circle here
which represent the industrialized countries. the big one there is China, going all the
way down. You have a new pattern in the world. The high income countries had a very high
income and very low child mortality. but also some developing countries have reached all
the way down here, what I should say "former developing countries". Most countries in the
world are in the middle position, and some had very high child mortality and low income.
now, how fast did that change take place? Millennium Deveolopment Goal (N°4) is specified
by the United Nations as a lowering of child mortality with two-third in 25 years. tht
is inone generation. But a modern way to measure that is to measure the Average Annual Rate
of Reduction. This is a way to meausre child mortality in the same way as we measure economic
growth, in percent change per year. The aim is to change child mortality by lowering with
4,3%. More than 4%, we could say. Now, let me give you an example. Norway is a very successful
country, with very high income and very low child mortality. I will now take Norway backwards
into history. Look, Norway flies back within history and it lands in the year 1900. Norway
had a high child mortality - 140 children dying every 1000 born. It was up here among
contries that have the highest child mortality. And now I will make a very interesting comparison.
I will compare Norway with Bangladesh. I have chosen 1990, the year when we started to measure
MDG goal. Then Bangladesh had 140 children dying, exactly the same as Norway had in 1900.
that was 90 years of difference. And now I want to know which country will lower the
child mortality faster: Norway, more than 100 years ago, or Bangladesh, 16 years ago?
Here we go! Bangladesh is reducing in the same speed as Norway. but now Bangladeshj
is going faster. When we reach 2006, Bangladesh reduced with 4.7% and achieved the MDG goal
rate and they were faster than Norway. Not to be suprised, actually. Because now they
have vaccines, antibiotics. We know more about the importance of the brest feeding. So it
should be able to reduce faster, and it did. But I will give Norway one more chance. I
will compare Norway 1916 with Egypt 1990, the year when MDG goal measurement started.
Egypt then had 91 children dying per 1000, and here we start. You can see how they are
going down. Egypt is becoming faster and faster in the speed. they are very successful in
reduction, actually 5,5%, much faster then the MDG goal rates. But Norway in the past
could not follow. The final chance for Norway, we will compare Norway 1932. norway had the
same child mortality as Brazil had in 1990. Here we go. Brazil is fast, Norway goes into
the Second World War. That was a difficult period. they haven't had any chance to go
as fast in that period as Brazil did in the last 16 years. Brazil reaches amazingly 6,3%,
much faster than MDG goal rate. this tells us in practice, MDG goal can be achieved!
now, let's looh how Norway will continue. norway was indeed in history very successful.
but it reached down to its present position by a reduction of 3,3% per year. (And what
about) the other countries of the world? these green ones, they have achieved MDG goal exactly
as Bangladesh, Egypt and Brazil, or they are very well on the way to achieve that because
we continue to measure that after 2006 . the yellow ones here are countries which have
gone in Norway's speed. They have reduced child mortality, but not really as fast as
the target set by UN: 2,3 or 4%, perhaps. Our concerns are the red countries. Look,
the red countries up here have high child mortality and almost no reduction. They reduced
very little or not at all. The main concern for me is that these countries have the lowest
income and the highest child mortality. It means that the countries with the highest
child mortality are those which also have the slowest reduction. That is a really serious
concern. We must make vaccines and treatment reach those in greatest need. now, there is
good news. Look at this country, Tanzania. According to the measurements from 1990, it
has insufficient reduction. But I will show you a more detailed study. this is published
in the Lancet. the main medical journal in April this year. It shows on this axis the
years from 1990 (to 2005) . And here it shows child mortality. Tanzaniz, indeed, during
the first 9 years of MDG goal measurements, it did not reduce at all, it was a red country.
but what has happened is this: now they have a faster reduction. -The researchers that
did this careful study (Tanzanian researchers together with international researchers) they
were careful, they said this was a short period, and there is an uncertainty range, this little
lines show the uncertainty range. but they said, it's highly probable, because at the
same time certain actions were taken. We have marked them here. Tanzanian government doubled
the health budget: Tanzania has an economic growth now. The Aid organmizations provided
vaccines and immunizations through an international coordinated effort. And bed nets were provided
that protect the children against malaria death. So we have good reasons to believe
that Tanzania now actually is a country on track to MDG goals, after a period of 9 years
with noreductions. Good news! I have a final graoh: the total number of children who die
in the world. We actually know this estimate fairly well. We know that in 1970 there was
more than 15 million children dying. this has declined so that today it is less than
10 million children dying. If we continue as we do today, it will continue to decrease.
But too slow, I think, and many who are like me have been able to study this. We are eager
that we move faster. Because what can be done with what we have in our hands today is this.
(shows the graph) If we add bet nets to everyone that needs it we will save 1 million children.
And if we add new vaccines which now exist for protection of children against pneumonia,
infection of the lungs, we will save two million children. If we provide service for pregnant
women and new-born children we will save another 2 million. We can save 5 million children
every year within 10 years. That is achieving MDG goal. It is in our power to replace funerals
for children with happy children!