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Yermukhamet Yertysbayev, Presidential Adviser of the Republic of Kazakhstan for Political Affairs
When in 1991 the Union was about to collapse,
I remember that our president was asked for the first time
why he conducted such a desperate struggle
for the preservation of the Union
when it was clear that the Union was about to collapse.
The conversation took place in the autumn.
He replied that, when working as the secretary of the Central Committee on Industry
and as Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic in 1980,
he like no other studied the entire national economy of the Soviet Union,
knew the industry and the structuring of the economy of Kazakhstan,
which had thousands of threads connected to all regions of Russia.
And he talked about the fact that
if the economic links were cut off for at least one month,
it would lead to disaster.
Indeed, in 1994, Kazakhstan's GDP fell 40%.
Only during the Great Patriotic War
did we reach such a level.
We had a catastrophic situation in Kazakhstan,
when production almost stopped,
and inflation and hyperinflation were horrifying.
I do not want to recall it.
And in March 1994,
when we had a very bad situation in the country,
speaking here, at Moscow University,
Nursultan Nazarbayev proposed the idea of the Eurasian Union.
Then, many reacted critically to this,
they thought it was a question of the political situation,
but 18 or 15 years later, now I just cannot say,
in 2007, the heads of state of Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan
signed a declaration on the need to create a single economic space -
the future Customs Union,
which should inevitably become the Eurasian Economic Union.
Of course, the global economic crisis has played a role
in terms of escalation, in a good way,
and intensification of this process.
I think the two years of the Customs Union
proved this to the whole world.
Trade turnover sharply increased,
including trade with the European Union.
Removing numerous administrative barriers
allowed Kazakh businessmen, Russian businessmen
to work in a completely different mode.
I think that the prospects of the Customs Union are very great.
After all, there is a market with a population of 170 million people,
although it is said that an independent, efficient market
can only work with a population of 200-250 million people.
Of course, Ukraine's accession to the Customs Union
would dramatically change the situation.
In the middle of the 21st century
there will be three giant centers in the world -
America, the European Union, which can be integrated with our Eurasian Union,
and the Asian continent, of course.
Mikhail Vinogradov, president of "Petersburg Politics"
In Russia the context in which the Republic of Kazakhstan acts
in the conflicts that naturally arise in the former Soviet Union and around Central Asia
is usually underestimated.
I would like to ask, what in your opinion is important
in the trends over the last year
that can be recorded or noted in the relations of Kazakhstan with the region?
I am primarily interested in, probably, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan,
to some extent, Turkey and China.
Back in 1995, our President invited
the leaders of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan
to establish the Central Asian Union of States.
The population of the region is over 65 million people,
if taken collectively;
there is a very good infrastructure,
hard-working people with long traditions,
especially if you take the tradition of the "Silk Road" trade,
crafts and so on.
The market model of Kazakhstan,
plus combined resources -
it was a good idea, which met with a rather cool reception from the leaders.
The issue of integration and constantly uniting efforts
in terms of competitiveness, especially in the era of globalization,
is quite urgent,
and I honestly do not understand
the position of some leaders on this issue.
Therefore, we have a much larger trade turnover
with Hungary or Poland than with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan,
and that's what's sad.
As for Turkey, it takes a leading position in terms of investment,
hundreds of joint ventures with Turkish businessmen are working in Kazakhstan.
By the way, our president recently attended the Turkish-Kazakh business forum.
He was there with the sole purpose
of promoting and advertising the Customs Union,
ato show the attractiveness of the Customs Union to Turkish business.
I recently visited Hungary and Poland;
I have noticed this trend among the elite and entrepreneurs
who do not want further integration in the European Union in any case,
the introduction of the euro in these countries;
with great hope, optimism and greed they look to the east -
to the Russian market, the Customs Union,
to the prospects that are opening up for business.
We have, of course, quite normal relations with our southern neighbours,
but the main vector of integration has been chosen.
This is Russia.
Government policy, as Napoleon said,
is defined by its geography.
We have 2,000 km of common border with China,
but we will never integrate,
you know for what reason,
I do not want to recall this.
We have a 8,000 km border with Russia,
including 2,000 km of sea in the Caspian Sea.
This is an open border of friendship.
And we have a long common historical experience with Russia.
I will not go into details on historical estimates of the past,
especially in the era of the Russian Empire,
and even the Soviet Union,
but the fact is that the Kazakhs made a giant leap thanks to Russia
in the 20th century,
urbanized their country, created industry,
developed the economy and jumped from a semi-nomadic state.
And in alliance with Russia, I am referring to the former Soviet Union,
we created a state-territorial border of Kazakhstan,
which allowed us to declare independence in 1991;
it was certainly well worth it.
We have preserved the language, culture and traditions,
and from this point of view we have no alternative
but close integration and further progress in our relations with the Russian Federation.
When our neighbours, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, now want to enter the Customs Union,
we can only support them.
Therefore, it must be clear that this is not about creating a new empire,
it is about creating an economic union of equal states,
which in the 21st century will be competitive
in the struggle for markets against China, the European Union,
the United States and other economies of the world.
This is the number one issue.
It is vitally important for both Russia and Kazakhstan.
Sergei Mikheyev, Director General of the Center for Current Politics
Can you share your views on the current situation
in the Caspian region in a few words?
First, the question of determining the status and position
of Kazakhstan in this regard,
although it is clear that with Russia all these issues are resolved,
and the issue of the situation around the South Caspian Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan pipeline,
the situation in Iran,
which could also threaten stability in the region.
On the Caspian Sea, as far as I know,
very intensive and good discussions with all parties, including Iran,
have been carried out.
You know the problems of the Caspian Sea:
if at least one of the countries bordering the Caspian Sea
has a negative stance on an issue,
the issue actually comes to a standstill.
As for Russian-Kazakh relations,
there are absolutely no problems.
Just yesterday I saw another document -
our Oil and Gas Minister and his Russian counterpart signed it on Kashagan,
the largest oil field work.
Next year the work will begin.
That is our goal - by 2015 to have 150 million tonnes of oil per year.
Once again, I want to emphasize and focus
on the excellent relations between Kazakhstan and Russia,
which allow us to use Russian territory, Russian transit,
to sell oil, petroleum products and natural gas through Russia to Europe.
This allowed Kazakhstan to have $85 billion in the national fund now.
Such friendly relations are, of course, mutually beneficial,
because some of Kazakhstan's oil goes through Russian pipelines,
I will not go into the specifics and details.
I emphasize again,
Russian-Kazakh relations are the most exemplary and ideal
in terms of bilateral relations.
Leonid Gusev, senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies of MGIMO
How does your President and the leadership
see the activity around the situation in Afghanistan?
The fact is that after Obama's re-election as president,
he, in theory, should keep his promise to withdraw troops in 2014.
And I remember that somewhere else 1.5 years ago
Nursultan Nazarbayev said that we needed to negotiate
with moderate Taliban groups;
then this information disappeared.
Does anything go in this direction?
I would remind you that in September 2002,
Kazakhstan and the United States signed strategic partnership agreements,
mostly relating to the fight against terrorism,
drug trafficking and security issues in Central Asia, as well.
America considers Kazakhstan to be its main partner
on resolving the Afghan problem,
I mean the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan.
This is a major technological and organizational challenge.
Imagine, every 7 minutes transport aircraft will take off
from Afghanistan through northern Kazakhstan air routes,
railways will be used,
as well as Kazakhstan's Caspian ports and of course, Russian territory:
we are due to withdraw 175,000 trucks from Afghanistan.
This is a vast amount of machinery, equipment,
weapons, aircraft carriers, tanks and so on.
That is a lot of work to do,
and Kazakhstan, I repeat, is one of the main participants
in the solution to this problem.
As for Afghanistan, I have recently spoken on the topic.
In fact, the problem is more complex.
42 countries are involved in the resolution of this problem.
You know, 87-90% of the drugs in the world are still produced in Afghanistan.
The country is crammed with numerous equipped laboratories
which are deeply hidden.
They still produce ***,
which poisons the Central Asian region, Russia, Europe
and the whole world.
For 10 years the Americans were there,
and still the problem persists.
Many Afghans, representatives of public and political elites,
are against the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan.
By the way, 30,000 American trainers
will remain in Afghanistan after the withdrawal
in order to resolve this issue.
In part, we are to blame for this.
I'll just give you one example.
Kazakhstan supplied 100 000 tonnes of high-grade flour
to Afghanistan for one year only.
And others were doing this, including Russia.
As a result, last year, or the year before last year,
the price of bread in Afghanistan was the lowest in the world,
there are no Afghan farmers motivated to grow wheat.
Why grow wheat,
if cultivating poppies can yield 12-15 times more money
than one hectare of wheat?
Another thing is that about a thousand or fifteen hundred students
from Afghanistan have graduated from Kazakh universities.
These are future doctors, engineers, teachers,
industrialists, agriculturists and so on.
This is really effective aid.
Therefore, we are constantly engaged in the Afghan problem,
and we will get more and more involved in it.