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there's a great article out by Amanda Marcotte
about the psychology of the republican absolutism
and intransigence in this government shutdown and she basically makes two
points
the first one is that in the republicans are acting like gambling addicts
which is an interesting analogy I never thought I then it didn't cross my mind
at all
and I'm going to whine a second and her second point is
that the massive irrationality other Republicans
can actually end up in some legislative victories
which is why under no circumstances can the president go any further
and give them what they want so she says quote
one thing that's certain is that Obama cannot give
even a symbolic concession on its surface
that would seem like the thing to do the republicans won a victory so they can
say face
give it to them and everyone walks away however
if you understand the sunk cost fallacy
you'll know it doesn't work that way if someone who is in the mindset
get something in return on their investment they often will feel
more emboldened to hang in hoping
they can get foale return on their investment
now that is a really good point
and they've actually done studies on this
and there's a chemical reaction that occurs
in the brain of gamblers a
when they get those intermittent victories so for example you can go to
the roulette table you can go play blackjack
and you can ball four hundred dollars but then you wanna hand and you get back
on your and sixty two dollars let's say
and you get a rush dopamine serotonin just like a just like a drug rush
and your thought process
isn't well look i net loss tax amount of money that's a bad thing you don't do a
rational calculation and use may have
you all I got this was a big win what if I win like this
every single time Italy also so
that's what's going on in this negotiation with the republicans they
dig themselves into this horrible hole where they don't know what they're doing
the following their leader Ted Cruz like lemmings right off the cliff right
into a political up fail according to the poll but also policy bill could you
not gonna get you what
you're trying to defund a law that passed in 2009 is not possible
right a so and
then if Obama gives them a little bit say are okay let's go ahead and
will get rid of the medical device tax is
okay there you go if we are to a Dr right without that will make the
republicans
you know take a deep breath and go well good now we can walk away
the same for press happens again we will happen in them where they go
well maybe next time
we can make a fake crisis
will do the same thing and maybe we can actually get the full be fun next time
so you give them an inch they take a *** mile
after release more we're looking at %uh never thought about it like that
she continues quote you lose one hundred dollars but then you get back $10
do you walk away in most cases no intermittent rewards and how they work
on the brain just make this whole phenomenon worse
as someone who got sucked into candy crush
I can tell you right now it's a demand on even the most determined a
rationalist
to avoid the lower of intermittent rewards its actually better to give in
right away
every time they act than it is to say no sometimes
any yes sometimes that's how strong the poll
love intermittent rewards is if a gambler one every time they played
they would actually lose interest a lot faster
than someone who win sometimes in losers sometimes
but the good news is that consistent know who is
or just as and probably more discouraging to someone in the gambling
mindset
that republicans RN so she saying the way you
do the right thing if you're the democrats is a your *** idiots
*** off and then eventually it's like you know a kid
who is really hyper they burn themselves out to run in circles until they burn
themselves out
you just can't feed into it she continues so hopefully the democrat can
understand this and hold the line
it's just psychology 101
again but great points here I don't know she's a
a psychologist irv she has training in it
when I first went to school that was my first interest in
was gonna be my first major so I have some training in it
but I abandoned their for political science as you guys can tell
but but there's one major point I think she's messing
all I again *** is fantastic
the republicans have already gotten those
intermittent victories so she's talking as if well
of Obama just hold strong and need to him said no every single time and I'll
tire themselves out
but the reason why they're not tiring themselves out is because
President Obama already gave in multiple times
now what's my evidence for that again
the democrats gave the republicans the exact budget
that they wanted so the original democratic budget was like
1.3 trillion dollars and the Ryan budget is $986 million
and the democrats lowered it to let go kill you 1.1 trillion
okay we'll give you one trying you're still not watching okay here
take your take a budget the exact size the Ryan budget
so we have a democratic senate Democratic president and we're getting a
republican budget
that's on her about right so the RTK in like crazy
not to mention in 2008 on the radio health care debate
the democrats came from single payer to public option all the way the individual
mandate
right any stalling any motor was a sixty-vote
but all democratic right because they had a super-majority
so they came all the way in 2009 then repeatedly came on other issues and
naked on the budget
and that's why the republicans are molded still looking for their next
intermittent victory so the republicans are already hooked on this they're
already in the gambler mindset