Tip:
Highlight text to annotate it
X
Well in the last lecture, we were discussing about population policies, and to recapitulate
what we have discussed is, that population policy is a statement which must be issued
with the sign of the ahead of this state. Population policy may be about some specific
aspect of population or more aspects of population, it can be about size, it can be about growth
rate. So, some countries may feel that their growth rate is higher than it should be from
development perspective and therefore, it must be reduced.
Some countries may feel that their growth rate is lower than what they would like to
have or what is good for the development of the country, and it must be raised. Or some
countries may have a pro-natal policy means policy which encourages reproduction. Some
countries may have antenatal policies, policies which discourage reproduction.
For example, European country most of them have pro-natal policy, they want to increase
their birth rate, because their total fertility rate has already gone below 2. And in several
countries, it is close to 1.2 or 1.3; and they are facing the problem of population
implosion, possibility of negative growth rate and the problem of aging of population
means rising median age of population. The policy may aim at encouraging or discouraging
migration or they may be policy regarding raising age of marriage or proportion unmarried
in different age groups or it may be something about social mobility. We have also seen that,
by enlarge the developed countries have pro-natal policies and the less developed countries
have antenatal policies. Though, several of countries of Latin America
and Africa, do not have an explicitly stated population policy which may be in, either
they are happy with the present population trends or there are only indirect ways or
there are statements by bureaucrats or different ministers in charges of different departments
about good or bad effects of population. In developed country, there are some other
issues also like ***, AIDS, human rights, rights of migrants or rights of women and
children; and specific policies to deal with the problem of trafficking of women and children.
In less developed country, the issue of ***, AIDS is a new issue. And several countries
of Latin America, Asia, Africa now have some policy regarding prevention of ***, AIDS or
fighting ***, AIDS epidemic. Some of them must be more concerned in Africa,
there are countries were the prevalence rate of *** has gone to the level of 24 percent
among adults 15 plus. So, they are worried about ***, they have also calculated what
has been the loss in life expectancy due to this much of prevalence of ***.
Now, today after discussing this, what is population policy, what are types of policies,
we have also discussed little bit about role of different leaders or sections of society
in determining population policy. For example, I said that although population policies are
statements by heads of states; but in determination of population policies, intellectuals, experts,
consultants, academicians, civil society activists or NGOs and religious leaders or women’s
groups have also played an important role. Today, we will see if it is possible to examine
effectiveness of population policies. That we have a policy India has a policy today,
starting with statement of policy in 1976 by Doctor Karan Singh and then followed by
Janata Policy, we have National Population Policy 2000. Now, just having a policy is
not enough, the policy must be effective and therefore, there must be some ways of examining
exploring to what extent our policies are effective.
Now, this is a difficult question. So, in today’s lecture we will see what are all
the considerations or what are all the complexities involved in examining effectiveness of population
policies, be it a policy on fertility or marriage or migration or mortality. It has not been
easy to evaluate effectiveness of policies.
So, first let us define what we mean by effectiveness. Since to implement population policy a nation
state has to spend resources, it is legitimate to ask whether policy is effective or not.
In all 5 year plans, we have a certain amount of money year mark for implementing family
planning program or population policies. I think in the first 5 year plan we started
family planning program by putting a target of spending 65 lakh rupees on this. And then,
in the second plan the money grow significantly and then in subsequent plans. Today we are
spending crores of rupees in implementing our family planning program; we call it family
welfare today. So, since we spend a large amount of money
in implementing a population policy; obviously, the policy makers would like to ask what has
been the result of spending, so much of money on the policy? Because, then you can compare
effectiveness of spending money or resources on different kinds of policies on such education
policy, family planning policy. Somebody can ask, whether it is worth spending
so much of money on population policy; why do not we spend more money on education, why
do not we stop family planning program and spend more money on education; ultimately
we know that, it is education or modernization or efficacy, which is going to lead couples
to limit family size. So, we we need to know, what is the effectiveness
of policy? Because we are spending money on that; then in discussing effectiveness of
population policies, the starting point is how does one defines the effectiveness of
policy. There are sometime, we make a distinction between efficiency and effectiveness.
Efficiency is kind of input output relationship, while effectiveness means more of output,
what have we achieved; effectiveness what have we achieved how many couples we have
reached, how many villages how many district how many states; and what proportion of different
categories of population segments we have reached, how many people are using family
planning methods, that is effectiveness. Efficiency means what have we achieved on
per unit expenditure basis. So, we are talking about effectiveness. Here, a simple definition
of effectiveness may be that it is the degree to which a policy is able to achieve its desired
objectives; the policy may be in the field of development, in the field of regional equality,
or in the field of long term needs of society. So, in population policy it means that by
spending so much of money in implementing population programs. What has been the result?
There are certain prerequisites of effective population policy, how can we make our policies
effective, something which will also be required in exploring effectiveness of the policy.
First, the policy must be stated in unambiguous and unequivocal terms. There must be clear
goals objectives targets policy must be stated in unambiguous terms; that means, if I have
a policy to influence population growth rate I cannot check the effectiveness, there will
be some change in population growth. I must clearly state that, the policy is about achieving
a reduction in growth rate of population; and not only a reduction, but I must also
say that, I want to achieve a growth rate of this much in next 5 years and then, this
much in next 10 years then, this much in next 15 years. We must have unambiguous and unequivocal
population policy statement. So like, if you look at population policy
of India in the beginning, the goals of population program were stated in terms of achieving
birth rate of 25 as early as possible. At some point, they started talking about achieving
birth rate of 25 by a certain date. Then the policy was stated in terms of total fertility
rate. At some point, policy was stated in terms of net reproduction rate at the national
level and then, at the level of each state. And today, we are talking it more in terms
of population stabilization, which is related to net reproduction rate, but we are talking
recently, we have also talking more specifically about infant mortality and maternal mortality
ratios. Once we have clear statement unambiguous statement of policy then, it is possible for
us to check to what extent our policy has been effective.
Then another prerequisite of effective policy is good governance. Even Gunnar Myrdal long
back in his famous book Asian drama said that, the countries of Asia have rather soft state,
soft state means the state is not able to achieve its own goals; what it was to achieve,
what it desires to achieve, what targets it fixes for itself. It is not able to achieve
that, which relates to a degree of governance transparency, corruption freeness, commitment,
motivation, concentrated efforts, so all that is required for good governance.
Then strategies are based on good understanding of the socio-economic and cultural milieus.
Based on my understanding of socio-economic and cultural milieu of India, I cannot have
a policy that in next 5 years India must have same life expectancy, which Japan has today;
our life expectancy is say around 65 years, it is not feasible for us to have a life expectancy
of 82 in 5 years time. So, policy must be our policy statements must be feasible statements,
there should not be too ambitious or unrealistic. Then there is a good political support for
the policy, if we have a policy in democratic society sometime this can happen that, to
show their face to united nations or to group of nations like millennium development goals,
the state declares a policy, but because of multiplicity of interest of plural society
plural nature of society, they are not able to provide lend support political support
to its own program. For example, in our country sometime governments hesitate to lend full
support to population policy, due to fear of backlash among minorities. So, if there
is a lack of political support political commitment, then the policy cannot be effective.
Then, adequate resources are mobilized to implement the policy, we must have a correct
calculation of how much resources are required to implement the policy. If you make suboptimal
expenditures you give money for construction of building to all, you give money to appoint
doctors, you give money for vans or jeeps or engine vehicles; but you do not give money
for petrol or you do not give money for medicines. Or recently, we were doing a study of ***
in Dewas district of Madhya Pradesh we came to know, there was a common complaint among
the providers at the district level at STI clinic level that from time to time. They
have been suffering from lack of testing kits, and lack of medicines; and if there is a lack
of testing kits then how can *** policy be effective? People may come for *** tests,
they may be send by NGOs or by TI partners or some of them may come on their own; but
you do not have equipment or you do not have kit to test them or you do not have medicine,
you do not have regular supply of ART all you efforts are wasted.
So, you must use the operations research methods to compute exactly how much and what type
of resources are required components of all the resources. Then socio-economic development
and the population policy are influencing the targets in the same direction that is
also very important. Because, if this is not happening, then you are not able to achieve
your objectives, that is the problem as we will see later in some later slides that that
is the problem that countries of Europe are facing today.
Socio-economic developments are taking couples to decide to produce only 1 child or not to
produce any child, but their policy is to raise fertility levels. So, then the policy
cannot be effective, because the policy is going in one direction and socio-economic
modernization and development they are going in another direction. And lastly, that civil
society is an agreement with the goals of the policy.
So, specifically last time when I mentioned, what is population policy and I said that,
this is a statement issued with the signature of the head of the state. So, it was clear
that, policy is always a state policy, but sometime civil society may not see eye to
eye with what the state policy is. Civil society, they have its own views, if religious leaders,
if civil society, if experts, consultants, media, thought leaders in the country do not
agree with the state policy, then also achieving effectiveness will be difficult.
There are some other difficulties too like difficulties practical difficulties in assessing
effectiveness of the population policy. First, evaluation of population policy is problematic.
The reason is that one cannot have an experimental method to evaluate the implementation policy
in our sociology, the common research methods are survey, interviews.
Or ideally, even one can even think of experimental design, but we cannot have experimental design
in a country like ours, you cannot; you know if you want to use experimental design to
test effectiveness of policy, then it means dividing all the states into groups, control
and experimental. Running one kind of policy in one group of states and running another
kind of policy or not running policy in the other group of states. And examining the effects
of them, after a gap of 5 years, 10 years, 15 years.
On political and ethical grounds, this control experimental thing is not possible in testingness
effectiveness of national policy just because, sociologists want to use experimental design
to test effectiveness of policy; the national government will not permit and cannot afford
to have separate policies for separate states or have policy for some states, and not have
policy for other states. So, you cannot use your conventional experimental kind or comparative
comparative method, you not use comparative method in this sense.
Then population trends depend on policy as well as on multitude of other factors, such
as institutional contexts, economic conditions, culture, value of children; there are lots
of researches on value of children by psychologists or by interdisciplinary teams of social psychologists
this issue what is value of child or what are values of children; so, this in itself
is a very complicated issue; then religious doctrines and autonomy etcetera.
So, population policy or efforts on the part of the state I just one part of all the things
which affect the results in the fertility, the mortality, migration, social mobility
etcetera, if all of them go in the same direction, then obviously, state policy will be effective.
If economic condition, culture you know they are not suitable, then the policy will not
be effective, actually you cannot even have policy always.
When we became independent then, the thought leaders or political leaders like Pandit Jawaharlal
Nehru, they were all supporters of population program. But, there was also a feeling among
all the leaders experts, political activists, political workers, grassroots workers that
we lack the institutional context of the, we lake those economic conditions or culture
in which population programs could be implemented. So, we started very cautiously with Gandhian
approach, people thought that the mansion of population policy or population program
will be taken as a very sensitive and irreligious or shameful thing to do to. It was in 1951,
1952 the condition was not as it is today. Today, we have come to that stage when we
are saying that, we must introduce sex education at 8 th standard level among young adults
young adolescent, because of *** and other issues.
And in general, there is more favorable climate, many parents also welcome if we introduce
sex education directly or indirectly even at the junior level. But in 1951, 1952 even
the mansion of words like population program, family planning were taken as something talking
shameful as something talking about sexuality or deviance or immorality or sensitive thing,
things which should not be in public domain or which should not be discussed in presence
of children and young adults. So, in that climate we could not have a population policy,
except that we said that we must control our population; and we advocated that Celibacy
or Brahmacharya is the right method for that. So, for example, how can one separate the
effect of family planning program from the effect of modernization and development? This
is a serious problem in examining effectiveness of policy.
Then some major issues, lack of consensus regarding the major goals of the population
policy. A problem, which affects our policy even today, if you talk to 10 persons in ministry
in ministry of health and family welfare or if you talk to 10 experts, there is no clarity
regarding what actually we want to achieve. Some people will focus on health, some on
education, some on inclusive growth, some specifically on TFR or NRR, some on population
stabilization. Then lack of adequate measurement of parameters
of population system. This is another problem. Parameter you may say that, the parameters
of population system are clear fertility, mortality etcetera. But, how do you measure
them, there is not one measure, each of the components of population growth is measured
in terms of several indicators several measures. What is migration, do you want to use data,
data or some other kind of data fertility what do you measure in fertility, birth rate
or general fertility rate or age specific fertility rates or gross reproduction rate
or net reproduction rate what do you in what terms you want to evaluate their population
policy. And you fix different measures of parameters of populations system, you have
different results. And in terms of like if looked at from the
prospective of couple protection rate, our achievements are enormous. More than 65 percent
couples in India today are using family planning methods so great. But, in terms reduction
in growth rate of population we have not been so successful, even the last census produce
a growth rate of more than 2 percent. So, somebody from that prospective can say that,
we have not succeeded. Somebody from the perspective of couple protection
rate can say that, we have more than succeeded. Initially the goal was to reach 60 percent
couple protection rate, because it was thought that once we reach 60 percent couple protection
rate, we will have TFR of 2; but, we have more than 60 percent couple protection rate
and our TFR is still quite high. Couple protection rate in the lagging states is also not so
bad, but their total fertility rate is very high 4,4.5, so that depends on the measurement
of parameter. Then lack of reliable data is another problem.
Today, gradually we are learning to collect reliable data on different aspects of population
parameter, but we cannot say that we have reliable data and everything we do not have.
For example, we may have reliable data on birth rate our sample registration scheme
data may be quite, but we do not have reliable data on maternal mortality ratio.
So, there are certain parameters, on which we have reliable data, there are certain we
do not have reliable data on unemployment. There are many things on which we are still
not able to produce reliable data. Some people may even doubt the validity of the figures
of couple protection rate, because much of your couple protection is from female sterilization
and cases of of data due to targets in the family plan program at grassroots level such
things are reported very common. Then, conversion of statistics of family planning
users into reduction in total fertility rate that is another big issue on which you require
contributions from mathematicians statistician that you have achieved a couple protection
rate of 65, which is not immediately reflected in birth rate impact.
How many births are averted? One measurement in evaluation of population policies has been
births averted means how many births are prevented from taking. Births averted that, if you did
not have family planning program, then you would have so many more births; and because
of family planning program so many births are averted.
And you see this, birth averted figure you would like to know how many births are averted
till say 2000 then 2001, 2002, 2010, what would be births averted in 2015, 2020; they
cannot simply be added you know birth averted every year cannot simply be added, because
they will have long term effect on reproduction or number of women in reproductive period,
number of men, number of women and child births etcetera.
Sir Sir, do you think this parameter can be measured births averted?
Yeah it is measured we have to measure it to to say that, the family on the issue is
that we spend money resources we spend resources on family planning. By spending resources
on family planning, we increase the percentage of couples percentage of married couples in
India children are born only to married couples; percentage of married couples using family
planning methods or what we call, couple protection rate.
Now, this couple protection rate must ultimately result in reduction in total fertility rate.
And why does it result in reduction in total fertility rate? Because, in between in number
of births are averted, because of this rise in couple protection rate, a number of births
means if you had not used family planning methods, if your had not used family planning
methods, you would be producing many more births than you are producing today, that
difference is births averted. Now, what I am saying that, computing birth
averted from the figures of couple protection rate is a very complex exercise, because it
depends on a number of factors; It depends on age distribution of population, it depends
on uses of family planning method, which methods are more in use; whether people are using
condoms or they are using IUCD or oral pills or male sterilization or female sterilization.
Then age of acceptance of family planning methods for separate methods.
Effectiveness, how effectively effectiveness of different methods. Some methods may have
100 percent effectiveness, some methods may have lower effectiveness; sterilization may
be almost 100 percent effectiveness, but condoms will not be 100 percent effectiveness, oral
pills will not be 100 percent effective. So, there is a some degree of effectiveness of
each method. Then mortality data, why mortality data, because
if a woman accept sterilization at the age of 35 then it is not that, because she has
used female sterilization as a family planning method at the age of 35, then only next year
some birth will be averted. The advantage of using female sterilization at 35 will be
will be there for several years to its. If she had not gone for female sterilization,
she may have produced a baby at 36, 37, 38 up to 49.
So, effect of family planning method continues for a long time. And then, it also depends
on the continuation some people this is a problem with spacing methods, which can be
withdrawn which can be used withdrawn reuse, how long do people continue with family planning
method, how long do they continue using oral pills or you know these methods.
So, for establishing a relationship between this and this, so many things are required;
and you required reliable data on each, you require statistical mathematical models, then
only you can have a clear understanding of how family planning statistics are producing
results in terms of births averted, which will ultimately need to reduction in total
fertility rate. Then another issue is the lack of a clear
theoretical understanding of population development nexus and how the effect of policy be separated
from the effect of development and modernization. If we have achieved a couple protection rate
of 65 is it due to family planning program of India or is it due to development and modernization.
Can one say that, if India did not had family planning program, then the couple protection
rate today would be 0, it would not be 0 due to modernization and economic development
on. In the western country, there was no family
planning program and still for the reason of what we call social capillary, because
they wanted to raise their own status and status of their children; despite opposition
on the part of Catholic Church and state, they went for family planning. In our country,
we would certainly have some figure may not be 65, but may be 20 or 25, even in absence
of family planning program we would have some couple protection rate.
So, while you are evaluating the effect of policy you cannot say that, the whole 65 percent
is due to that. May be, if you can arrive at a figure like in absence of program, it
would have been around 25 then, 65 minus 25 the effect of program or policy is only 40
something like that. Then another problem is that, in different
countries either due to of funds or because, the do not see an immediate gain of that.
There is a lack of appreciation for monitoring and evaluation of population program. States
thing that, it is enough that they have policy, they have targets and they instruct, they
order their ministries or their administrators and their staff to work towards achievement
of targets; but there is no attempt to evaluate the efforts or you know there is no midterm
or long term evaluation. Monitoring and evaluation usually monitoring is done when the program
is going on and evaluation when the program is completed. So, that is another problem.
Lack lack of consensus regarding the major goals of population policy is a serious problem.
Therefore, even those governments that now have an officially stated policy have taken
decades to arrive at the policy statement and get it approved by appropriate state body.
You see, we we started our program in early 50’s, but the first parliament approved
formal policy document on population could be issued only in 2000 and and that means,
at a gap of 50 years; it took 50 years for Indian parliament to attain consensus.
Government of India was by by enlarge favorable to population control, but there was consensus
and 50 years is a longtime in the history of a country. So, lack of consensus regarding
the major goals you know goal everybody said that, the population must be controlled, but
how which method should be given more priority? What should be our communication policy? What
should be direct and indirect methods? What should be the nature of organization of ministry
of health and family welfare? What should be the relationship between states and center?
What should be the relationship between different departments? What is the role of different
departments of government of India. These have been burning issues.
And we have taken a very long time to decide about them. And then lack of data, if you
do not have data, if you do not have data if you do not have data on continuation you
require specialize service to collect data on continuation of practices, you require
data now this continuation would come mostly from special surveys. Age distribution, age
distribution will come from routinely collected official records, and also from population
census. Then usage of family planning method various
types of methods from routine administrative statistics, from market research, from diverse
sources. And the age of acceptance, surveys of acceptor will give you information about
age distribution of acceptors of family planning methods. Effectiveness, effectiveness require
specialize studies sometime experimental control trials. And mortality data, mortality data
you need and for making you you require age specific mortality rates; and this age specific
mortality rates may come from effective vital registration system or in our country they
come from sample registration system.
If you spend little bit time on policy problems of less developed countries you find that,
economically less developed countries are also statistically less developed countries
in this respect; you do not have as good quality of data on all these parameters for less developed
countries, as you have for the developed country. Less developed countries lake detailed data
on family planning and population parameters. The available data are of an incomplete or
unreliable. Then there are technical problems. How does one convert the data on number of
users of family planning into measures of births averted and the percentage impact on
the birth on the rate? That is another issue. First of all converting couple protection
rate into births averted and then, effect of births averted in different years on birth
rate. So, the ultimate goal is to reduce the birth rate, how is it raising couple protection
rate helping us in reducing birth rate.
For evaluation of program you need, baseline data on age distribution and age-specific-fertility-rates,
data on pattern of mortality, reliable data on family planning all these parameters, rate
of continuation discontinuation and effectiveness of different methods.
To evaluate the effectiveness of population policy the evaluators need a clear definition
of whether the goal of the stated policy is to reduce population growth rate; which depends
on three things: fertility, mortality and migration, or fertility rate or mortality
rate or all. So so far what we have learnt that, to evaluate the effectiveness of policy,
we must have a clear definition of what the goals are.
I have been repeating this, Garrett Hardin you know he asked a question regarding policy,
what is your policy do you want to reduce birth rate or do you want to reduce population
size? He said that, for development planning in those countries where population has already
gone beyond the optimal level; there is a need to reduce population size. But, if you
are only reducing birth rate, then you are not reducing population size, your population
is still growing may be at a slower pace. And if during the time your birth rate is
declining, death rate is also declining or death rate is declining faster than your population
growth rate is increasing. So, you must be clear about what the goals
of population policy are. The goals must be clear measurable and meaningful. Suppose,
the goal is reduce the fertility, then should the government aim at reducing birth rate
or total fertility rate or other measures of fertility, a clear analysis is required
to identify all factors on which the target indicators depend.
Birth rate depends on age distribution, net reproduction rate does not depend on age distribution.
So, along with specifying the targets of the policy, there is also a need to identify all
those social economic demographic factors on which your indicators depend like birth
rate will also depend on population momentum. It is easier to reduce total fertility then
birth rate, because birth rate depends on both age specific fertility rates and age
distribution of population.
It is not in the hands of planners to change the age distribution of population. Our state
can make all the best possible efforts to reduce age specific fertility rates, but it
is not possible at all for the state to make changes in the age distribution of population.
Effects of age distribution are going to remain there for several decades. Further, reducing
the growth rate of population is still more a difficult task.
As discussed previously, reduction is age age specific fertility rates does not immediately
reduce the growth rate of population and for several decades population would continue
to grow despite reduction in total fertility rate; that means if India is to achieve total
fertility rate of 2.1 next year, even then it will take 30, 40 more years for India’s
population to become stationary or to get stabilized.
Then there are other issues, difficulty in analytical and empirical separation of the
effects of the policy from those of development and modernization, qualitatively issues are
clear. The issue is to what extent reduction in birth rate is due to policy and to what
extent due to changes in value system or changes in value of children or changes in literacy
or education achievements or changes in levels of empowerment or changes in social development,
but technically or empirically it is not so easy to separate the effects of various types.
More over two processes may work in the same or different directions in the developed countries
they are working in the different direction. In many less developed country, they are working
in the same direction. So then, if they are working in the same direction, then your estimates
of achievement or effectiveness may be. You may say that, all the achievements in terms
of averted births or reduction in birth rate is due to population policy or family planning
program; but actually that is because of both, modernization economic development social
development on the one hand and population policy on the other.
Finally, a lack of appreciation for monitoring and evaluation of population program is another
issue. It is only now the government of India gives on project basis, a projects to independent
consultants for monitoring and evaluation, there is also international donors and international
organizations. The program managers may not see the direct
utility of evaluation studies at all, it also depends on how bright or committed the top
ranking bureaucrats are. Some of us would have been involved in consultancy or developmental
research have found that when a department is headed by a bright committed, motivated,
honest, independent bureaucrat at the top; then it takes monitoring and evaluation studies
more seriously. And sometime when this is not the case, then
no evaluation is study gets done, because these study too require expenditure of huge
resources. And some people may think that, why waste money on monitoring and evaluation,
just spend all the money on running the program; and in absence of these studies however, one
cannot judge how effective the policy is.
Often students ask a question whether developed countries are more effective in implementing
population policy? There is no doubt that the developed countries are worried about
low fertility, particularly because it causes aging. It not only raises proportion of the
old, but it also increases proportion of very old 80 plus among the old or 60 plus; means
the population of 80 plus divided by the population of 60 plus. And this requires analysis of
causes of fertility decline.
The comparison between developed and developing countries in performance in implementing policies
is not sound. However, because they are dealing with different types of problems. Macdonald
in 2006 said that there are several causes of low fertility in the developed countries.
The major causes are: social liberalism or reflective modernization; economic deregulation
or the new capitalism. The former refers to the condition of postmodernism,
postmodern family, postmodern orientation, postmodern attitudes, postmodern believes,
postmodern political situations, postmodern family. And postmodernism coupled with organized
capitalism with emphasis on reason, certitude of science, industrialization caused the first
demographic transition and fertility declined to 2 to 3.
Now, reflexive modernization or post modernization led to fulfillment of women’s claims for
gender equity, individualization of the individual, and lifted the lid on divorce. Simultaneously,
economic deregulation made a revolutionary impact on the labour market, the end of jobs
for life you do not have jobs for life. India is also by this in formalization of labour
force in the last plan was only indicative of the fact that, they are no jobs for life.
There is more informalization and contractualization of work. So, leading to uncertainties in life.
And a desire among pay rates not to have so many children. The increased demand for higher
level of human capital; flexible flexible employment, contractualization of job, unemployment,
uncertainties. These factors are more prevalent in the developed countries. Consequently there,
the reflexive modernization produce the second demographic transition in which fertility
went below the replacement level.
And will the industrially advanced, postmodern societies this is a question now, they will
be able to have third transition and improve fertility levels through state intervention
or community action. There is no simple answer. They are trying they they are trying to give
all kinds of benefits. Even our country which is facing the problem
of population explosion is giving so many facilities to central government employees
for we have expanded maternity leave, we are giving paternity leave, even fathers are now
entitled to certain days of leave, when a child is born. We are saying that, women employees
can go up to 2 years of leaves how much 730 days up to 2 years, they can take leave to
take care of their children. So, we have high fertility and at the same
time we are following the western model to facilitate child birth. But, we know that
those who are you know the other day I was say high school passed those who are high
school passed and certainly those who are in government jobs. They are not willing to
produce children. So, that is a situation in developed countries.
Therefore, not compare India with Sweden, or India with Denmark one can compare India
with Bangladesh, because they have similar policies and similar socio-economic characteristics.
Both are developing countries with low income, large rural base and strong influence of religion
and tradition. Perhaps, you cannot even compare India and china, they started similar level
of incomes, similar structural condition, same percentage of population in urban areas,
similar health infrastructure, the old traditional feudal believe systems patriarchy a preference;
but we decided to go for a democratic plural country and China went for some kind of totalitarian
communist ideology controlled society and therefore, we cannot compare.
In china, it is easy to implement a one child policy. In India, as a state policy it is
not possible for us to have that. India and Bangladesh can be compared, similar situation,
antenatal policies means against fertility, one cannot compare effectiveness of policy
between Mexico and France. In the two cases institutional mechanisms and conditions are
very different.
It appears that with the end of value of children it is impossible to raise fertility unless
new institutional mechanisms are developed, which virtually coerce women to reproduce
children. So, maybe a time will come, if the present continue, the society will have to
curtail women’s freedom or women’s empowerment and use some kind of force we do not know;
if incentives do not work, society have to survive, if incentives do not work.
Then maybe some women can be withdrawn from and coercion maybe use. We are living in postmodern
uncertain world and we do not know what will happen in the future. Merely giving the more
facilities for producing children will not help, this is not helping. Any attempt to
predict post-transitional fertility in the developed countries is in vain.
It is more difficult to implement population policy in the developed countries than in
the developing countries. I am saying this to convey the point that, implementing policy
has always has been difficult. So, it is not that in India only we are facing the problem
of not getting desired result in the field of population programs. This is so everywhere
similar is a case; even in the developed country actually, they find it still more difficulty
to implement their policy than in the case in less developed countries.
We are modernization is favoring implementation of policy, there post modernization is contradicting
with the aims of population policy. Yet, there are some who see that it is possible. And
for this society has to support family, particularly women.
At the end let me quote something from McDonald let me read this thing. The solution to low
fertility in the of developed countries lies neither in the moral right’s call for a
rolling back of social liberalism that is not possible, nor in the old left’s agenda
of rolling back economic deregulation. Both waves of change have achieved may of the desirable
outcomes for which they were intended. Most people prefer to live in a society that
offers social freedom and personal choices; once people have tasted social freedom and
choices it is impossible to take them back. Most prefer to work in environment that rewards
enterprise and endeavor. But, most people prefer to have long-lasting intimate relationships
and to have children. The solution, therefore, lies in a third wave of social change, new
and substantial priority to the support of family life-especially the bearing and rearing
of children. New perspectives on the family are required
that recognize the vital social and personal significance of family life and that understand
that family life will be played out amid the social liberalism; and the new capitalism
that are integral to twenty-first-century economies and societies.
To follow McDonald, then the population policy in the developed, postmodern, societies, effectiveness
would not be effective unless family life is supported; the population policy will not
be effective, unless family life is supported this is clear. That, if you want to have effective
policy you cannot have direct policies, you have to support family. The question is how
and another issue is what will be its repercussions for the very institutions and values that
have produced the weakening of family - the freedom and the individual choices.
The developing countries have some other problems; lack of conceptual clarity disagreement among
the opinion makers, academics and planners that is a biggest problem. But there are other
problems too; fear of misuse of funds, lack of governance, religious or ethnic resistance,
and transfer of responsibilities in the field of family planning and health to private sector,
individuals or non-government organize.
This is quote from Jain that ICPD - International Conferential Population and Development. ICPD
makes some very unrealistic demands on national governments. The implementation of a broader
population policy as embedded in ICPD recommendations would require a cross-sectional approach to
policy making. Experience in policymaking with such an approach however, has not been
promising so far, either in the population field or in other fields.
At least six factors would hamper implementation of such an approach in any setting. The extent
to be which these issues are resolved would determine the degree to which a broader policy
is implemented in a country and succeeds in reducing growth and improving individual wellbeing.
The factor are: Lack of conceptual clarity, disagreement among academics and intellectuals,
concern about losing funds for family planning, absence of effective bureaucratic structures,
lack of effective accountability mechanism, and waning role of government. I thing this
quote from Jain also summarizes what we what I have tried to say today.
So, what are the lessons for India if we want to have an effective policy, first of all
we must be clear about the goals of the policy. We must have right kind of commitment; we
must have intersectoral or interdepartmental coordination. We should also encourage family
planning, as well as beyond family planning factors like raising age of marriage, social
development, empowerment of women etcetera etcetera, so that the goals of policy can
be achieved. There are complex issues in judging effectiveness of policy, if there are any
questions?
You see, right from the beginning we have use a multimedia approach in family planning,
which means interpersonal communication change agents or extension workers going to the people
talking to them face to face in certain kinds of things that helps, but we have also involved
a, folk media and also mass media. So, radio, T V, newspaper and wall writings, posters,
pamphlet, leaflets, books, slogans India’s approach has been to use all kinds of media,
informal, formal and mass media and everything traditional media mass media in implementing
population program. Thank you sir.
For certain purposes interpersonal communication have for making people aware mass media helps
more, but for taking decision for helping couples to take decision, face to face or
interpersonal communication can effect more. And this interpersonal communication is usually
done through ANMs, Anganwadi workers, these days ASHAs. So, that is the way grassroots
level workers.