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Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen,
good afternoon dear participants and guests,
our present moderator Sergey Brulev offers a kind of a large-scale, philosophical conversation.
I'm not a philosopher and I don't know if I can keep up with the proposed scale,
but still according to the idea of the present discussion, while preparing to it,
we have decided to talk seriously, on a high, far-reaching level, grasping a truly global scale.
Starting from such global, not just country, scale,
it seems correct to try to understand possible origins of this demand for innovations.
The easiest answer is that it should emerge wherever exists a problem.
Demand is always a reaction to a problem; it is a request for its solution.
And if we try to grasp the global scale, we should talk about global issues,
and that's why we now see the first slide -
the issues of materials, the issues of energy,
the issues of human being in that case as a consumer of these materials and that energy,
and the issue of nature - the mother of humankind and materials and energy -
which now should survive all that is requested from it.
In that sense, the most important question I'd like to answer for myself is a simple question:
what's going on? What's going on with materials, what's going on with energy,
what's going on with humanity and what's going on with nature?
So trying to stick to the global scale, as I was actually asked to,
let's begin with the first and simplest stage - materials.
Here on the slide is a dynamics of production of materials for the past two and a half centuries,
I think it looks very convincing.
There is an evident trend, that was broken somewhere in the beginning of the last century,
and that generally all by itself is a kind of caution.
Going along, from materials.
Let's see what generally, on the global scale, is happening with industrial production.
The trend is similar, but even steeper - that is clearly seen from the shape of the curve.
Energy - what is going on with energy consumption on the globe?
And here we have the same dynamics for the same period of two and a half centuries.
Moving to the next stage - a human being for whose sake the production
and consumption of materials is growing,
for whose sake the production and consumption of energy is growing.
And here we also see the dynamics with abrupt change in 20th century.
If the century was started with the population a little less than 2 billion,
now you see - we are getting close to 7 billion,
and recently the UN has reported that in a few days we should expect
the birth of a 7-billionth resident of the Earth.
We will make every effort to make it happen, but nevertheless the fact remains the same -
the dynamics is very clear, self-evident and completely new.
Moreover, in addition to the size of population as a consumer of materials and industrial goods,
in parallel we should impose another vision, another chart -
what is happening with an average life expectancy.
And the dynamics here is also unprecedented.
As we can see, the last century has begun with about 42-43 years, and finished with 63 years.
Today's average life expectancy in the world is 69 years.
This means that the total amount of request from humanity today is of such extent
that has never been seen before in the history of mankind.
I think that even what has been said is enough to look at the potentials of nature in a new light.
After all, the materials and energy and population growing at absolutely unprecedented extent
are supported only by mother nature, there is nothing more to be based on.
And it is here where we can see the first signs of a real large-scale conflict unfolding before our eyes.
It has dozens of displays, the most notorious of them is the concentration of the carbon dioxide,
CO2, the Kyoto Protocol and topics associated with it.
This is a reflection of the same conflict which leads these days to the melting of ice sheet
of the Arctic and Antarctic; of the same conflict which leads to global warming.
And no matter how differently this is interpreted by various scientists,
as anthropogenic factors or not,
you will not find any reliable researcher today who would say that the problem doesn't exist.
There are no such people, because it's obvious that this issue exists in all trends.
If you bring them together and combine all that has already been said,
that actually means the breaking point of trends in the 20th century.
Here are all provided charts at the same time; they show a qualitatively new situation.
The past century has resulted in breaking of all trends - the consumption of materials,
the industrial production together with a technosphere, energy and, most important,
it has obviously resulted in the growing conflict of all mentioned above with nature.
If that is so, and such breaking point in the 20th century is evident,
and we are now living in the 21st century,
maybe it is time to ask a simple question: what's next, what is going to happen at the next stage?
What can and should be expected in the already arrived 21st century?
Telling straight, the first thought is: it should continue as it is already happening.
In other words - the 21st century should continue the trends of the 20th century.
The answer is simple - it is impossible.
Given the very large range of opinions of scientists, experts and analysts,
the absolute consensus forecast today is
that the continuation of the 20th century's trends in the 21st century is unthinkable, it just can't happen.
Just because all types of resources on our planet have physical limits.
This means that the scenario of continued growth should be excluded.
The scenario of the same growth dynamics that we have now and that is known to us,
the one we have spend all our lives with, this dynamics is completely over.
Moreover, it is well known that there is a very serious and very influential group of scholars
who have much more pessimistic - or more precisely, almost catastrophic views.
These people say that we are facing not just stagnation,
but a qualitatively new situation of a radical change of the upward trend to the downward one.
And they are very solid people, not some outcasts;
in fact I'm talking about well-known group of experts,
who in the 70s of the last century have founded the Club of Rome
- Aurelio Peccei, Dennis Meadows, this is the team that continues to work.
And with reliable calculations and arguments they suggest that the only scenario
that is left for us - scenario that is close to a catastrophe.
This curve is fairly hypothetical, but imagine, that the population of 7 billion,
which is just about to be reached,
to the end of the century should be reduced to 2-2,5 billion or even 1,5 billion people.
This is a three or fourfold reduction of the number.
This is a trend, which never occurred neither in the history of humanity nor in the history of the Earth.
Such scenario is absolutely devastating, with consequences,
a scope of which is still just slightly acknowledged.
Frankly speaking, I think that regardless of whether you are a supporter
or an opponent of that approach,
it is absolutely clear that we all must do our best to avoid this.
There are children, grandchildren. One hundred years is not a thousand years,
it's quite a foreseeable period of time.
And to found out the trend of a threefold reduction of population would be unthinkable.
Although that's what reliable scientists are saying. In our view, such trend is not acceptable,
and if that is so, what's left, at least at the level of common sense, not of a hefty analytics?
It's obvious that there is only one trend left - the trend of balanced, sustainable development.
The very same sustainable growth which is discussed today all over the world.
This is probably the only possible conscious way of mankind development in 21st century,
but we need to understand how that can be done.
In our view that can be done only via a breakthrough solution of fundamental issues
which include development of new materials, development of new energy,
development of basically new medicine. In other words -
maintenance of the humankind is essentially possible only after
radical reversal of existing technological patterns.
It is possible only if new materials and the new technosphere
will be drastically less material-consuming, more energy-effective,
and if new medicine will be able to cope with the problem of maintaining the duration
of human life we already have, and even extending it.
But in each case I have to use the word 'new',
and in this sense I think that that the scope of such challenge
should be addressed by our country too.
You know, at that point we often meet a kind of a total pessimism, a total disbelief.
The idea that nothing can be done, that it's all just chatter,
that no result can be achieved, is very widespread.
The scale of such mindset is becoming frightening.
Along with my colleagues from Rusnano we represent the minority of participants,
who strongly disagree with this view.
Our position is exactly the opposite, and I'll try to show why.
The thing we are talking about is an attempt of the Russian answer to these global challenges.
And respectively this answer should touch on new materials, new energy and the new medicine.
Is it possible, and what can be done in our country to make a contribution
to addressing global challenges the humanity is facing?
Let's start with new materials. This is naturally the first group.
Of course, I'm talking about our experience, which is quite limited.
But it exists, and it's incorrect to pretend that it doesn't exist.
In this area we currently have 45 working industrial projects,
that is 45 companies, 45 plants already existing or under construction.
In this area 36 research institutes and universities are involved in the scientific part of the cluster,
and 12 Russian institutions of higher education are training specialists in this field, the one of new materials.
We divide it into polymers, semiconductor materials, nanoceramics, metals and alloys, overcoats.
Each of them could be discussed, but let's take the first one - construction and building materials.
The projects I have just told about are listed here.
There are not too many projects in this cluster, only seven.
For example, basaltoplastics.
Here at the trading show you can have a look at the products, which are already on the market.
We are talking about the replacement of the steel reinforcement,
which is a classic of the iron-concrete construction, with the basalt one, that is, almost a *** one,
and more precisely, made of basalt fiber.
It's clear that such products are much more ecologically friendly.
Equally important is that their weight is much less.
Hence, the consumption of materials is reduced.
Even more important is that stone is definitely better insulating material compared to metal.
And finally, the most important, products that are manufactured in Cheboksary by 'Galen' company and
will be manufactured at the factory under construction in Yakutsk,
are on the sale stage cheaper than classic steel reinforcements.
This means that we are talking about an innovative project,
products of which are not only better at service,
including a better resistance to corrosion and a better chemical protection, but also cheaper.
This combination is rather rare, but here it is achieved, and you can see this project today at the trading show.
Generally for new materials we plan to raise production output of the projects,
which have been mentioned before, to 153 billion rubles at the end of the year.
New energy. Lots of discussions here, and not only the words.
In this area we also have interesting projects on the run, a little less in number, only 18.
But all of them are living, have a reliable scientific and educational support.
That, by the way, is an important detail.
Almost none of the projects can emerge if it is not supported by science, if it is not supported by education.
We divide it into four clusters - accumulation, transmission, generation and saving of energy.
We can select any of them, but let's have a closer look at the accumulation of energy. What's happening here?
We have several projects to date, at least three of them were named here; one can say a lot about each of them,
I'll take one - lithium-ion batteries of the new generation.
As I understand it, this is not just another product, but a breakthrough in that sector.
And in fact I think that it is even cross-sector.
It's well known that electric transport is being discussed for many years.
The problems of electric transport are well known,
and professionals are well aware that the basic, key sticking point today is a battery.
It's quite clear that traditional, alkaline batteries are unable to solve the problems set by electric transport.
Lithium-ion is the new generation. In November of this year we are starting up the largest plant in Eurasia
that will produce lithium-ion batteries of the new generation.
Along with the construction of the plant new automobiles are being designed.
Today at the forum, at the trading show, we present the whole product line of electromotives -
from Lada-Kalina, or Ellada, as it is called, to Kamaz.
They are either already certified or at the final stage of certification.
And their basis is the new generation batteries.
I'll tell only about the bus, the pretty one, which stays at the entrance to the building.
It was produced in the Saratov region and uses these batteries.
As you understand, in that case the need for a transmission is completely eliminated; it doesn't need a gear box.
Power is transferred from the engine to wheels by cable,
and this means a drastic reduction of weight, a sweeping simplification of maintenance,
it doesn't need such amount of parts, maintenance is much cheaper,
let alone fueling, which is many times cheaper,
and environmental effects that could change ecological atmosphere of a city.
In this city, in Moscow, where we very positively interact with the new mayor,
we expect to get the first order for hundred of the new pilot buses in the coming year.
Residents of Moscow know that reserved lines for public transport have just appeared throughout the city,
and these lines should be used by new transport.
I'm convinced that electrobuses, which now can go up to 240 km on a single charge, should become this new transport.
Such parameters are rare in the world.
In any case, we are talking about the batteries that are at the level of the highest technical standards in the world.
Generally, all projects in the area of new energy that we are developing
should give us by 2015 a production output exceeding 2 billion dollars (66 billion rubles).
This is the output we see on the basis of the already existing projects.
Although the project conveyor, the classic pipeline, continues to work, and the process isn't finished.
Medicine is the last topic I'd like to discuss, but certainly not least of importance, and challenges here are not less global.
Here we naturally work together with science and educational potential.
Our clusters here are prevention, diagnostics, therapy and surgery.
For a change, let's select not the first, but the second one, and look at the diagnostics. What's happening here?
We suppose that this issue is very important, although maybe less dramatic than surgery or even therapy,
but it's exactly here where the reasons of most dramatic consequences for morbidity and mortality lie.
It is well known that the two main reasons influencing the level of mortality in our country are
cardiovascular and oncologic diseases.
It's also well known that both of them are much easier to cure if they are diagnosed at the early stages.
In fact, the early diagnosis both for oncology and for cardiovascular diseases,
is the basis of significant mortality reduction and people's lives saving.
And I'm talking not about some abstract things, but about absolutely practical projects that are unfolding right now.
Here are two examples of what is named here:
the first one, which is going to be discussed here, the diagnosis of thrombosis.
This may sound too scientifically, but in fact we are talking about a unique to the world,
I want to stress that - unique, there is no other such-like technology,
allowing to recognize the danger of thrombosis at extra-early stage.
It's clear that when a thromb emerged, a countdown is a matter of hours,
there are only few hours left, but in order to recognize it at the early stage
we require a completely unique technology and unique equipment.
Such technologies are developed in Russia.
A group of young scientists from the Russian Hematological Center,
headed by professor Ataullahanov, one of the founders of the hematologic diagnostics,
has constructed the equipment that allows not only to identify the risk of a clot formation at the very early stage,
but also to diagnose the opposite danger - blood incoagulability, or hemophilia.
Both of them are diagnosed, and the diagnosis is extremely simple,
makes almost no requirements for qualification of the medical stuff.
We expect to complete certification not later than the autumn of the next year
and to start mass production of that equipment, especially as currently it is requested both in Europe and the U.S.
By the way, this equipment is presented on the trade show, you can have a look at it.
That's what I want to say on the cardiovascular system.
Oncology, early diagnostics, as I have said before.
Ufa, Orel, Lipetsk, Voronezh, Tambov and Bryansk - these are six Russian regions,
which tomorrow, here at the forum, will sign with us a unique agreement.
The point is that in these regions in a short time we will build and put into operation the complexes
of positron emission tomography and computed tomography.
This is a classic branch of nuclear radiation medicine.
This branch was founded and developed in Kurchatov Institute, which is the world's leader.
But now we are talking not about a science, we are talking about the devices that are working under the logic of business
and can offer, with the support of high-tech medicine from the state,
real prices for extra-early diagnosis to residents of Orel, Lipetsk, Voronezh, Tambov, Bashkiria and Bryansk.
I'm convinced that this branch of diagnostics can really help
to decrease mortality from cancer and cardiovascular diseases.
Therefore, based on what just has been said, only in medicine, in these projects we can reach quite an appreciable level
of provisioning of medical products and services of almost 40 billion rubles.
That is actually what I was planning to say.
In conclusion, I'll sum up the essence of what I have said:
according to my understanding, today, in 21th century, humankind is facing qualitatively new challenges.
And being immersed by current issues of the dynamics of the economic development, GDP, the debt, the rate of inflation,
we often are unable to see beyond this perspective.
The scope of the new issues is unprecedented.
Humankind has never faced such challenges before.
At the same time I was trying to show that our country too is capable
to make the real contribution to resolving of these unprecedented challenges.
Thanks for your attention.