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Governor Joey Salceda,
former stock market analyst and presidential economic adviser,
is finding it hard to stay optimistic
amid the global economic recession.
Despite the government's assurances
that the Philippines can weather the storm,
Salceda warns of the gravity of its impact,
the dangers of first-world protectionism
and the silver lining he sees for the country
after being ravaged by what is being dubbed
as The Greater Depression.
Governor, you made bold predictions last year
regarding job losses and companies closing shop.
We're seeing now that it's happening
at a much faster rate.
Are we supposed to be panicking?
Panicking within an
emerging economy like the Philippines,
given the host of other
factors within our context --
number one we have a lot of other persistent structural problems.
Our inequitable poverty,
our immature political system,
immature but antiquated political system.
It's the way we organize ourselves.
We cannot afford to panic.
We should be very worried.
I mean everybody should be very worried.
I think worry is a better word
than panic.
In President Arroyo's
State of the Nation Address last year,
she said that the BPOs (Business Process Outsourcing),
China and the migrant workers' remittances
will make our economy stable
in light of the economic crisis.
Don't you think we're relying too much
on the migrant worker market?
The Philippines can no longer rely on this
as a natural safety valve
for our domestic excess labor.
Anything that depends on external markets will give.
Exports,
tourism,
BPOs -- all of them.
Migrant workers.
I mean there are two trends, I think,
that are worrisome to me.
One, of course, the "Americans First" policy,
provisions of the stimulus package
of the U.S.
The U.S.$888 billion stimuli package
passed by the House of Representatives.
Second, really, as you can see, the anti-
... the growing aversion to foreign workers
in many of our host economies
like Great Britian,
South Korea,
Japan.
I think political contingencies will dictate
that protectionism will be at least ...
there will be ...
the pendulum will shift from greater openness
to one that is more protectionist.
That's bad for the Philippines
because of our 54 percent exposure.
I think on a net basis,
we have one of the biggest exposures to the world
because your migrant workers is 13 percent of GDP,
your BPO is 3 percent,
your tourism is 3 percent,
then you have 37 percent exports exposure.
We're looking at 30,000 job lost since October.
After 18 months, what are we looking at?
We're talking about 200 thousand.
So next year, 300?
A full 1 percent of the total,
total labor.
And the problem there is
it will happen in the high ...
the more, what we call,
the "good" jobs.
So what the government will do is create bad jobs.
When you say "bad jobs" -- in other words, short-term jobs.
The food crisis will manifest itself
in another way.
It's cheap, but people will have no money to buy it.
So you think we should still push through with an election,
which in the past
has proven to be a very expensive exercise
for the Philippines?
No, it's just 4 to 6 billion pesos. (US$83 million)
Well, that's big. In light of the economic crisis.
Well, no matter how expensive it is,
we have to do it because we are a democracy.
In this kind of situation,
hope is sometimes already enough
for you to at least
stimulate the positive impulses within your system.
You have a new president,
hopefully who will give us some fresh air,
allow us to, you know,
there's a new face, so you can hope again.
Definitely, there will be a honeymoon period.
Where you can have at least some
broad domestic consensus
on doing certain things.
Are we in trouble, governor?
Oh we are. We're in deep trouble.
We're small.
Our ability to respond
to global challenges
is also limited by our political structure,
the way we organize ourselves.
So this situation we're preparing for,
this storm lashing at the United States,
is going to become a tsunami here in our country.
That's why even if our house is sturdy,
we need to build a boat.
Because the only feasible way of surviving the tsunami,
that is you ride it out.
You don't swim under it.
You just have to go over it.
It's unfortunate, it's difficult,
but something can be done.
Though as I said,
there are no cures.
They're all cushions.