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The second step in our ideal redesign methodology is to analyse problems in the current system
and also problems in the current future of the system. As a theoretical background to
problem analysis, we will deal again with emergence, co-production, impact and current
futures. We have discussed those in the introduction to this module and in more detail in the previous
module. What we need to bear in mind as we do a problem
analysis is that the logic of the problem is not the logic of the solution. We are not
doing a problem analysis in order to find solutions. That is very important. Even if
we find occasionally a problem that can be solved, we list it also, we list all problems
that we can identify. Those we can solve and those we cannot solve, but need to dissolve.
Our orientation in this exercise should be to identify as many problem co-factors and
problems as we can. So the first exercise we are doing is to identify
the problems in the current system. And you are asked to identify five or more of your
biggest problems. And we suggest you look especially for boiling frogs. Those are the
problems that are gradually getting worse. That you don't maybe even notice they are
getting worse. An example could be a declining enthusiasm for what you are doing. This is
a very subtle frog and you may miss it. So be aware to look for the biggest problems
you can think of. The second exercise will ask you to identify
the problem co-factors. For each of those five or more problems you have listed, you
are now asked to identify the co-factors to each of those problems. And the exercise asks
you first to do a free flow, so list any co-factors you can think of. And when you are thinking
you are finished with the list and you have dealt with all five or more problems and their
co-factors, we suggest that you use multi-dimensionality and look if you can add to any one of those
original problems some more co-factors. So you would look could I add some psychological
co-factors, like lack of enthusiasm, or some cultural, ethical, aesthetic, knowledge related,
economic, political, technological, maybe some ecological, physiological, biological,
physical co-factors, depends what you deal with. Physical, biological and so on would
be relevant for example in situations if you are dealing with maintenance or healthcare
or something like that. It may not always be of relevance in each problem context.
You have now identified problems and problem co-factors, so we would like you to determine
which of those problems and co-factors need solving and which need dissolving. We have
explained the difference between the two of them in praxis, however, it may not always
be easy to distinguish. And we leave it to you if you want to solve or need to dissolve
the issue. So the exercise involved is marking each problem and co-factor accordingly.
We would also like you to do an exercise where you identify past failures and the co-factors
of these failures. This can be a very important exercise to learn from your past failures
and to use those failures as improvement. We all should be using past experience to
learn from. So this is what we want to do here. First of all, identify one or two of
your biggest failures in your work life. If you recently joined an organisation, you can
also look at your past work life. If you have only recently started to work, then look for
the failures in a school project for argument's sake. And then identify the factors that co-produced
each failure. And treat them as the previous exercise, your failure would be like a problem,
and the co-factors would be treated like co-factors. The next exercise we want you to do is to
draw a systems dynamics model. So what we want you to do you take your problems and
a selection of co-factors, put them on a piece of paper and draw a systems dynamics model
with it. In other words, draw the impacts between them. The arrow means this problem
impacts on another problem. For example, if one of my problems is growing workload and
another one is lack enthusiasm for work and I am looking at does my growing workload impact
on my lack of enthusiasm? If the answer is yes which I am sure it would be, then you
are drawing an arrow from the growing workload to the lack of enthusiasm. Once you have drawn
the various arrows, you get a good idea of what your work situation is like, what the
dynamics of your work situation is like. You will find that those variables that have a
lot of arrows going out are the so called active variables, you would need to focus
later on in the design especially on those variables, because if you change something
there it will have impact on a lot of the other variables. Those variables that have
a lot of arrows moving into them they are the so called passive variables, they are
affected by other things, so you would not necessarily change that particular variable,
but you will have to change those that give rise to the passive variable. It is also useful
to include some external variables. What we mean here if you read through your list of
co-factors of the previous exercise, you will find that some of the reasons why you have
one of those problems you listed at the beginning, it is because other stakeholders in the environment,
other departments maybe, the organisation as a whole or even from outside the organisation
have an impact or are a co-factor why you have a problem. It is useful to include a
few external variables, variable is another word for co-factor here, or problem that we
are putting into our systems dynamics model, so include a few external ones. So that you
get a feel how your function is interrelated with a larger whole and how that impacts on
you, because later on in the design we will need to also change how we are interacting
with our environment. We will have to come up with some problem dissolving ideas around
that as well. We would also like you to do a trend analysis.
And what we mean here is to identify important quantitative data that you can trace back
into the history of your organisation or your work life and project them forward. For example,
if you are five years in your organisation, what was the cost situation and how has it
changed. Or the budgets or marketing, what changed in the market share, or in the amount
of sales. Did they decline, did they increase? Identify key quantitative data that could
make a description or could give an indication how your work situation has changed in the
course of the last few years and then project them forward into the future, in the next
five to ten years. In forecasting we have a rule of thumb that says you can only forecast
as much forward as you have data in the history. So don't take change of last year to this
year and project it twenty years forward into the future. This is not necessarily a valid
forecasting technique. Also we would like you to look for data pertaining
to your function. If you are in marketing, then take that area you are responsible for
and not necessarily the marketing situation of the organisation as a whole, or the whole
marketing department. We would also like you to do a qualitative forecast. Take one of
your boiling frogs and describe how it has changed over the last five years, how it has
become gradually worse and how it would change over the next few years if the current momentum
carries on as it does now. Both quantitative and qualitative trends if
they are getting worse can be boiling frogs. But we want you to describe the one quantitatively
and another qualitatively. And then the last exercise is to explore current
future scenarios. A scenario is really a story of how a situation unfolds into the future.
We would like you to do current future scenarios, in other words, if the problems, problem co-factors
and other factors in your work life carry on as they are now, based on the momentum
from the past, how the story would look five to ten years from now. What we would like
you to do is to identify two stories, one is what is the best case scenario and the
other what is the worst case scenario. So if I am for example wanting to look into my
health in the next five years, and I am looking at my nutrition, my exercise, my stress management
and a few other critical variables, then what is the best case that my future could look
like in terms of health five or ten years from now, and what is the worst case. And
to make a story like that we need what we call a scenario logic. What is the underlying
logic that things are getting so much worse or that things get relatively less worse,
stay the same or even get better. Although the current future rarely gets better unless
we already have ideals and we are already moving towards an ideal.
Let us give some tips for problem analysis. The most important tip is do not use keywords
to describe a problem or a problem co-factor, but use a sentence or a part sentence. For
example, communication problem. I have communication problem in my work is not a problem, this
is a keyword, we don't know what we are dealing with. Is there too much communication, are
you overburdened with too much or don't you have the kind of communication that you need
or it is a communication withheld from maybe your boss, or what? You need to be specific
what the communication issue is. And the rule here is anybody reading what you wrote must
be able to understand what the issue is. You have to be clear and specific. And I cannot
emphasise that enough, especially in teamwork. You go and say don't do keywords, do sentences
and people still come back with keywords. We have throw those things out as output because
they are meaningless. We cannot emphasise that enough.
Also, the more effort you put into the problem analysis now, the better foundation you will
have to create an ideal design for your function and also for the organisation as a whole.
The reason for this is that the output from this module will be used as input to the systemic
project / function (re)design module. In that module you will make a more detailed redesign
of your function and your work life than you will be able to do in this module. In this
module we will just make an initial simple design.
The module output will also be used to improve other functions and the organisation as a
whole if you are part of the organisation transformation programme. The organisation
transformation programme depends on the transfer of data from different users. For example,
if your function is human resource management and one of your co-factors decribes some problems
with the IT system, then those problems with the IT system will be provided as input for
the IT persons to deal with. It is very important that you are very clear and very precise in
your problem analysis and problem co-factor analysis. If you are not clearly able to express
your problem, nobody else who is supposedly responsible for that co-factor can do anything
about it. Let us now summarise the problem steps again
and relate them to the different theoretical concepts. First you were asked to identify
problems in the current system. Those problems are typically an emergence from various co-factors
that you were asked to identify in the second step, so identification of problem co-factors
has to do with the fact that everything in the universe is co-produced. Then you were
asked to distinguish between problem solving and dissolving and this has to do with the
distinctions between problem solving, which is restoring the system to the current future,
and problem dissolving, which implies creating a new, transformed future for the system.
Then we asked you to identify some past failures, those failures again are an emergence from
different co-factors which you also were asked to identify and which relate to co-production.
Then you were asked to draw a systems dynamics model to determine the impacts between the
problems and problem co-factors and to get a sense of the dynamics of your situation.
Then you identified trends and extrapolated them into the current future and also explored
current future scenarios. So again this has to do with the current future and how it could
possibly unfold in the worst case or the best case.
What is the importance of problem analysis in general? First of all, the problem analysis
gives you an indication about the nature and the magnitude of your situation and the change
that will be required. Are there lots of things wrong? Is there qualitatively something wrong,
or are there just a few niggly little problems that you can fix and your situation will be
better in the future? So it gives you a very good indication of that. Are you a problem
riddled system that needs to be redesigned? Or are you a well functioning system that
needs to be optimised? In other words, few minor things being changed and a few isolated
problem being solved. Very important is that the more problems and problem co-factors you
identify, the greater is the potential for improvement. Really, one cannot improve a
perfect system. There is nothing as boring as perfection. If you have no problems in
your life, how will you want to develop? It is the challenge of not knowing where to start.
However, if you are listing a lot of problems, then suddenly you have an idea this needs
to change, that needs to change, and suddenly change development becomes easy, one is motivated
to change. Now that you have analysed your problem situation
from various angles, it can be useful to integrate your situation and express it using a-rational
or non-rational methodologies such as drawing, storytelling, symbols, analogies, or if you
are brave even dancing and music. The exercise we would suggest that you do is to draw the
current situation, make a picture of it or give symbol that expresses the current situation.
Not a specific problem, but the whole current situation of your work life and the problems
in it. The method uses the creativity of your subconscious mind and also the pattern recognition
ability of your subconscious mind, so it is quite possible that there is a deeper underlying
cause of your work situation that suddenly is coming to the fore as a result of this
exercise. It very often expresses very beautifully in one picture what you have been analysing
now for quite a few hours. And have fun doing it!