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BIANNA GOLODRYGA: Hi, everyone.
I'm Bianna Golodryga, and this is "Yahoo News Live."
Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders
face off in their first one-on-one debate just days
before the New Hampshire primary,
and things could not be any more heated between the two
Democratic rivals.
Hunter Walker is national correspondent for Yahoo News.
He's joining me in New York.
And Robert Shrum is a long-time Democratic strategist.
He was senior adviser to both the Kerry-Edwards
and Gore-Lieberman campaigns, just to name two of them.
He's now professor at the University of South Carolina
and is joining us from Los Angeles.
Welcome to you both, Bob.
ROBERT SHRUM: Southern California.
BIANNA GOLODRYGA: I'm sorry.
California.
California.
And he's joining us from Los Angeles.
Welcome to you both.
Bob, I want to start with you, because the three words that
seem to resonate on the Democratic side
now are moderate, progressive, and revolution.
There's been a lot of attention focused
on the division within the Republican Party.
Could you say we're seeing one amongst Democrats now?
ROBERT SHRUM: Sure.
And I think the challenge for Hillary Clinton-- as she goes
into this debate tonight-- I mean,
she'll do the expected thing-- attack the Republicans,
try to position herself as the person who
can go against them in November--
but she has to give a more convincing answer on issues
like the speaking fees.
No one believes-- as she said last night--
that she wasn't thinking of running for president when
she took the money from Goldman Sachs.
But beyond that-- and it goes to the heart of your question--
realism is not a rallying cry.
It doesn't motivate people.
What she needs to do is convey a sense of vision.
Her slogan is "Fighting for us."
She needs to tell people how, in concrete human terms,
what she wants to do is going to affect and lift their lives.
I think beyond that, the issue of progressive--
who's progressive, who's not progressive-- that's
not the heart of the matter.
The heart of the matter is connecting with people
and making them understand the kind of change you stand for.
BIANNA GOLODRYGA: Let me pick up on that with you,
Hunter, because Hillary Clinton called herself
a progressive who gets things done.
Bernie Sanders said he doesn't define someone
as progressive who takes that amount of money
from Wall Street banks.
As you heard from Bob, that's a big problem
that she has going on, especially with regards
to her answer last night, and the answer
she's given in the past, whether it's relating it
to 9/11, what have you.
Is the camp concerned about her Wall Street connections?
HUNTER WALKER: I don't know that they are enough.
I think that the e-mail issue really
resonated for people initially.
And frankly, I was covering the speaking fees--
some of the money with the foundation-- a long time ago.
I think there's some real problems there.
And I've actually been surprised that it hasn't resonated more
for people.
I think when we see secret e-mails--
even your grandma gets that.
Like, I don't have secret emails.
And then it outrages people.
This stuff is a little more complicated,
but it might even be more important.
What's interesting is that it had largely
gone under the radar.
And with these gaffes-- you know,
when she was saying she was dead broke,
when she was pointing out-- as you did before-- she argued
that 9/11 justified taking donations from Wall Street,
because she was like in the rebuilding effort.
And then this moment of saying, well,
that's what they offered me.
I mean, these things--
BIANNA GOLODRYGA: And that's what previous secretaries
of states receive as well.
HUNTER WALKER: Right.
I mean, this can drag it out into the spotlight
when it was issue that was largely being ignored.
BIANNA GOLODRYGA: And, Bob, as someone
who's worked on so many campaigns,
how concerned should Hillary Clinton be,
and the fact that she got such a disappointing turnout and vote
from the younger voter in Iowa?
ROBERT SHRUM: Well, I think that's a big problem.
She cannot win in November, I don't think,
without turning out young people.
And I know President Obama will campaign
hard for if she's the nominee.
I know that Bernie Sanders will campaign hard for her.
But she's going to have to do a lot of that herself.
She's an excellent debater.
We've seen that.
But what she has to do is just up
her game in this debate tonight.
She has to be able to convey to young people
what she really stands for, how it matters in their lives.
And she has to enlist and empower them.
You know, Peter Hart-- who is a superb Democratic pollster--
had a wonderful line the other day.
He said, last time she faced a glass ceiling.
Now she faces a glass curtain.
Voters don't know if she's approachable,
if somehow or other they can touch her,
if she relates to them.
She has to get beyond that.
She has to go out there and connect.
And I know that word is overused,
but she really does have to connect with people.
She showed she could do it in 2008.
She's got to do it now.
BIANNA GOLODRYGA: Yes, she even acknowledged last night
that the frustration with not attracting younger voters
and said that's something that she needs to work on.
But, Hunter, on the flip side, we
know that the most dedicated and loyal voters
are the older voters.
And that's an area where Bernie Sanders
lags behind Hillary Clinton.
What is his camp going to do about attracting those older
voters who tend to congregate towards Hillary Clinton?
HUNTER WALKER: I'm not sure that his biggest problem.
I think if we look at the demographics
of the early primary states, despite what's going on,
Bernie Sanders is still the insurgent here.
And he's done well in Iowa.
That was basically a win for him,
even if it was a slight win for Hillary.
He just defied expectations with that.
They're nearly tied in delegates.
He's positioned to get a big, big win in New Hampshire.
The problem is that the next two states
are Nevada and South Carolina.
These have a big minority demographic,
and that's where he's having a problem right now.
Older voters may be less of a worry
if he's able to get a lot of momentum
out of these first four states and sort of have
an inspirational, underdog upset story.
So I think it's really going to be a moot point,
because if this minority firewall that she's
got in Nevada and South Carolina can hold,
we're going to be talking about a much different race on Super
Tuesday.
BIANNA GOLODRYGA: And something that we
heard from a sense of frustration
from Senator Sanders at that town hall last night
was on the question of electability.
And, Bob, when we talk about a general election,
will voters flock to a 74-year-old who
throws out words like revolution,
promises to raise taxes for everyone significantly,
and is self-described as a socialist?
ROBERT SHRUM: Well, I think we ought to be fair to him
in terms of his tax increase for the middle class.
He argues to the extent that it's true
that the middle class will actually save money
because their health care costs and premiums will go down.
They'll pay slightly more in taxes,
but they'll save a lot in terms of health care costs.
I don't think we know that.
But I will say this.
At the beginning of the process, nobody
thought that somebody who was a self-described democratic
socialist could do very well in these primaries.
So far he is doing well.
And I think it is true that she has a firewall in South
Carolina and the south.
But it's also true that John Ralston-- who's
very smart about politics in Nevada--
thinks that there's a very real chance that
could be competitive.
And on Super Tuesday, you also have Minnesota voting,
you have the Colorado caucuses, you have Massachusetts.
So his challenge is number one-- and this is the difficult one--
is to crack the minority vote.
I think that's very tough for him.
I think she's overwhelmingly favored there,
as she's favored for the nomination.
And number two, he's got to do well
in those non-Southern states.
He'll have the money to continue,
but he also has to have the argument, the plausible case.
If he's the nominee, by the way, Republicans will attack him.
They'll say he's a socialist.
They'll accuse him of all sorts of other things.
And a lot of how that turns out-- if he were the nominee--
would depend on how he responded.
The one anecdote to that, by the way,
are those three presidential debates.
Because the country actually pays a lot more attention
to them than they do to ads in the general election.
And how he came across there would make, I think,
the biggest difference.
BIANNA GOLODRYGA: That's a good point.
You mentioned Republicans.
Hunter, let's quickly turn to the Republicans now
and news coming out from their camp.
We know that the three have already taken themselves out
of the running.
But when you look at Donald Trump's latest numbers,
and you look at the battle between him and Ted Cruz now,
Donald Trump appears gracious Monday night,
now coming around, saying that Ted Cruz rigged it
and that he wants a recount, what have you.
Who's winning between the battle of Trump and Cruz?
And are we going to see Trump's camp change
anything at all come Tuesday?
HUNTER WALKER: Well, you know, all the experts
caution that polling in New Hampshire is notoriously fluid.
But right now-- and we still don't really
have that many numbers that show the effect
of the caucus-- Trump still is doing well in New Hampshire.
So that's good for him, because he did OK in Iowa.
If he holds and gets that first place spot in New Hampshire,
I know his people think South Carolina is
a great state for him.
The flip side of that is that this
is a guy who has predicated his argument for the presidency
largely on his poll numbers.
I mean, anyone who's watched him for 10 minutes has heard,
he's winning big here.
He's doing big here.
He's a winner.
He's number one.
And Ted Cruz just stuck a pin in that argument.
So it's really going to be important to see
how much of the air goes out for New Hampshire.
And if he has two bad finishes, I think he's in big trouble,
just because of how he's positioned his candidacy.
BIANNA GOLODRYGA: And, Bob, of course,
looking to New Hampshire here-- you've
got Jeb Bush and Chris Christie really
in a do-or-die situation, where big donors are saying,
if you can't make it out by Tuesday,
then you've got to start rethinking about who
we're going to be supporting.
Who's in bigger trouble, Jeb or Chris?
And do you think that they're a sort of union
that we're seeing now-- to go after Marco Rubio-- is
a smart strategy?
ROBERT SHRUM: It's the only strategy they have.
I think Christie's in more trouble,
because if you look at the polling--
and it is fluid in New Hampshire-- Bush
is actually doing better than people expected.
In one of the latest polls, he's running in second place,
and in the other, Ted Cruz is.
But what's happened is the so-called mainstream
candidates have formed a circular firing squad.
And they've put Marco Rubio in the middle.
If he survives that, does well, comes in second, for example,
then I think he's very likely to become
the overwhelming mainstream choice.
If Jeb Bush somehow or other pulls this off and comes
in second, or John Kasich pulls this off and comes in second,
then I think you're going to see a muddled sort of establishment
side of the Republican contest that will benefit Ted Cruz,
I think, ultimately more than anyone else.
BIANNA GOLODRYGA: A lot of momentum right now
behind the senator, of course, ahead of Tuesday's big vote.
But we want to thank both of you for joining us today.
Thank you so much, Hunter.
Thank you so much, Bob Shrum from the University of Southern
California.
Really appreciate having you on.
ROBERT SHRUM: Thanks.
BIANNA GOLODRYGA: And we always look forward
to hearing what you have to say.
You can follow me on Facebook and Twitter,
@BiannaGolodryga and use #YahooLive
to let us know what you think about the Democratic race
for the White House ahead of Tuesday's debate--
today's debate.
Thanks so much for watching.