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YOU FROM THE SUN.
SO HARD.
>> YEAH, THIS IS 24 TIMES AS
LARGE AS THE AIR FRANCE SEARCH
AREA.
AND THAT TOOK TWO YEARS TO FIND
THE PLANE.
LET'S TAKE A LOOK WHAT'S BEING
CONSIDERED.
THEY HAVE A LOT OF RESOURCES.
THEY HAVE AS MUCH AS THEY CAN
GET RIGHT NOW.
IT TOOK OFF FROM KUALA LUMPUR,
FLEW LESS THAN AN HOUR AND
VANISHED WITHOUT A TRACE.
LOOK AT THE HUGE FLEET THEY HAVE
OUT THERE LOOKING FOR THIS RIGHT
NOW.
AMONG OTHER THINGS, CLOSE TO 60
AIRCRAFT AT WORK INCLUDING
THESE.
THIS IS A P 8 POSEIDON FROM THE
NAVY.
THIS PLANE CAN FLY MANY, MANY
HUNDREDS OF MILES EVERY DAY
SEARCHING THE OCEAN SURFACE FOR
ANY SIGN OF ANYTHING.
IT'S A STATE-OF-THE-ART
SUBMARINE HUNTER.
IT CAN SPOT A TINY PER SCOPE.
IT CAN SPOT DEBRIS IF IT'S OUT
THERE.
THEY HAVE AROUND 40 SHIPS OUT
THERE.
NOT ONLY SCANNING THE SURFACE OF
THE WATER WITH PEOPLE LOOKING AT
ALL HOURS BUT ALSO SCANNING
BEMOOETH NEATH THE WATER WITH
VARIOUS IMAGING DEVICES TO HELP
THEM CLOSE INNEN ON A TARGET.
STILL, IT'S A LOT OF TERRITORY.
THAT'S NOT ENOUGH.
THEY NEED BIGGER MORE HI-TECH
HELP THAN ALL OF THAT.
ONE OF THE THINGS THEY HAVE
RELIED ON IN THE PROCESS HAS
BEEN THE SATELLITES THAT WE'VE
HEARD SO MUCH ABOUT.
SATELLITES MATTER BECAUSE
THEY'RE GIVING DATA THAT ALLOWED
THEM TO ESTABLISH THOSE TWO BIG
ARCS WHERE THEY THIS MIGHT BE
THE SOUTHERN ARC AND THE
NORTHERN ARC OF THIS TRAVEL WITH
THE IDEA THAT MAYBE, MAYBE THE
PLANE IS SOMEWHERE OUT ALONG ONE
OF THESE ARCS.
THAT BRINGS UP AN INTERESTING
POINT, ERIN.
OF THE MINGS THE MALAYSIANS SAY
THEY'RE GETTING THE MOST HELP ON
IS ANALYSIS OF ALL THIS DATA.
THIS ISN'T JUST A MATTER OF
DIGGING AND LOOKING.
IT'S A MATTER OF LOOKING AT WHAT
YOU ALREADY HAVE AND SAYING DOES
THIS GEB ME A CLUE WHERE TO LOOK
NEXT.
>> HOW DO THEY DECIDE WHERE TO
LOOK NEXT, TOM OR FRANKLY, I
GUESS THIS IS THE QUESTION, WHEN
AN AREA IS, QUOTE UNQUOTE, DONE?
>> WHAT THEY'RE DOING BASICALLY
IS A FORM OF DO THE MATHEMATICS
IT'S CALLED BAYSIAN THEORY.
BAYSIAN THEORY BE BASICALLY IS A
MATTER OF ADJUSTING YOUR
PROBABILITIES OF WHERE SOMETHING
MIGHT BE BASED ON EVERY NEW BIT
OF EVIDENCE.
THAT'S WHAT HAS LED THEM, FOR
EXAMPLE TO, IDENTIFY THIS SPOT
ABOUT 2,000 MILES OFF THE COAST
OF AUSTRALIA.
IT'S NOT TERRIBLY BIG COMPARED
TO THE WHOLE SEARCH AREA BUT
IT'S GETTING A LOT OF THE
ATTENTION RIGHT NOW BECAUSE THEY
PUT IN ALL THIS INFORMATION
ABOUT THE PROBABILITY THAT THE
PLANE HEADED SOUTH, THE
PROBABILITY THAT IT MADE IT THIS
FAR, THE PROBABILITY THAT IT
DIDN'T LAND SOMEWHERE OR THAT IT
WAS UNDER THE CONTROL OF
SOMEBODY ELSE.
ONCE THEY GET HERE THOUGH, ERIN,
STILL A BIG CHALLENGE.
EVEN IF THEY FOUND DEBRIS THERE,
THEY GO HAVE TO GO TWO MILES
DOWN ON A MONTHNOUS OCEAN FLOOR