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Rajab Safarov, Director General of the Center for the Study of Modern Iran
In the near future, in the Persian Gulf, military exercises will begin;
the exercises will be large-scale, I would say,
unprecedented in terms of quality and geography of the event.
It is really quite a threatening factor.
The exercises will involve almost all the monarchies of the Persian Gulf.
The U.S. Navy will be actively involved in them.
For the first time the UK will be actively represented.
There is a sense that the West led by the United States shows the Middle East a powerful fist
and is going to relocate its capabilities and military force to this zone.
The U.S. military leadership does not hide its plans and intentions
that after the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and Iraq much of their armament
and military forces will be relocated to the Persian Gulf.
This is obviously important since the vector of geopolitical events is now shifted into this zone.
The general trend is that in the very near future we will face serious geopolitical turmoil.
What are the goals and objectives of these maneuvers?
First, the reason or cause of defusing the Persian Gulf
and defensive measures to ensure the preservation of international shipping and maritime infrastructure
is trumped-up, and in fact this has nothing to do with the realities of today.
First, the level of mine clearance of the Persian Gulf
almost does not correspond to the scale of the reaction of the West.
Second, everyone knows about the upcoming presidential elections in Iran.
They thus want to provide not only the psychological pressure on the leadership and people of Iran,
but also the direct political and military pressure on the country.
The exercises will be held from 6 to 30 May, the duration is also unprecedented,
and they really are held almost close to the coastlines of Iran,
and any provocation could lead to unpredictable consequences.
Therefore, I believe, in this case, holding a large-scale exercise near the coast of Iran
is a true provocation factor destabilizing the situation in the area and causing a backlash from Iran.
Heydar Jemal, chairman of the Islamic Committee of Russia
In the context of these military exercises I can only say that in my opinion,
the United States has no interest that liberal pro-Western forces, the so-called reformers,
come to power in Iran with their agenda, which consists in broad agreement with the West,
a broad program of concessions etc.
The United States has the task to break the triangle "Iran - China - Russia",
but not by liberals and pro-Westerners coming to power in Tehran.
It wants the aggravation of the game.
This aggravation is only possible if the line of Ahmadinejad will be continued in varying degrees in Tehran.
Similarly, they deliberately pursue a policy of destabilizing the internal situation in Pakistan
using drones for deliberately targeting civilians.
Do they know that about 5,000 women, children and civilians were killed,
not having anything to do with the warlords, the Taliban and so forth?
Certainly.
They just want to cause a military coup in Pakistan,
which automatically pushes India into the arms of the United States
and into the anti-Chinese coalition.
Nearly the same goal is pursued by the current exercises in the Persian Gulf.
They understand that the Iranian nation has such a mentality that when it is threatened,
it will never surrender facing such blackmail.
It will always take a position of opposition.
But they do want this.
They do not fear that even more radical anti-Western group will come to power in Iran.
They do not fear.
They are well aware that Iran is a weighted, careful state,
which itself does not commit any acts of aggression.
Therefore, they are absolutely sure of the stability of this wing of the situation in Eurasia.
But they want aggravation of the game between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula,
they want to increase confrontation with Turkey, they want to damage relations with Egypt
– by the way, the process has already begun.
That is, they want a large-scale isolation of Iran and, possibly, a series of conflicts,
which would be attended by intermediaries not directly involving the United States.
They've already failed in Afghanistan and Iraq,
and they want to supervise conflicts in which they themselves are not involved as arbitrators.
In my view, the purpose of the pressure of these maneuvers is to lead not liberal
but conservative forces in Iran today to power.