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>> PEGGY PICO: The number of people employed in the county at any given time is a key indicator
on how the logical economy is doing. In March�the jobless rate in San Diego county
was 7.7% a significant drop from 9.3% just a year ago.
Here to explain what this means are Alan Gin, economics professor at the University of San
Diego and author of the school's index of leading economic indicators and Erik Bruvold
president of national university system for policy research, welcome back.
>>> Thank you. >> PEGGY PICO: How many jobs are we talking
about in the past year? >> If you compare March�of this year to
March�of last year we have add more than 32,000 jobs that's the highest number we have
had since 2000 >> PEGGY PICO: What kind of jobs?
>> It's a broadbased recovery but strongest sectors include leash sure and� leisure
and hospitality and the services sector, you hope those will become fulltime jobs and employment
gains in the technical services as well >> PEGGY PICO: Erik this sounds like a whole
lot what's behind this? >> We have seen continued strength where San
Diego is strong which is on our scientific and technical side our R&D side has continued
to do well and second recovery in the real estate market and that's important.
We saw for the first time gains in construction, not as much as we would like to see and as
Alan's indicators are shown over the last few months we have seen an uptick in building
permits. >> PEGGY PICO: They're interlinked there.
How about these, Alan, parttime construction workerers, high paying, low paying?
>> I think it's a combination, we have seen growth in the technical services and those
tend to be highpaying jobs but we have Aed jobs in the lowpaying sectors, don't want
to denigrate anyone but jobs? Restaurants and temporary services and that's
a worry because you would like to see job growth in what would be considered the middle
class sector. >> PEGGY PICO: Do you think that we will see
that growth in the near future? >> I think we will see some growth but there
might have been a shift in terms of the structure of the economy which doesn't bode well so
that's going to be one of the challenges in the years ahead.
>> PEGGY PICO: Erik do you see this good growth, biggest in the last four years do you see
this as something we can sustain? >> Absolutely, but I think there is one caution
on the horizon. We have seen this story twice before where
we have seen good growth in the early parts of the year and then it's slumped off.
As long as we don't have a manufactured crises coming out of Washington, Sacramento, Europe,
I think consumer confidence will stay strong and we will see this growth continue hopefully
for the end of year we're at over 30,000 jobs to the economy here in San Diego
>> PEGGY PICO: As long as the people in Washington don't panic we might be able to sustain it.
>>> As long as the adults are in control I think we will be in good shape.
>> PEGGY PICO: Alan what about sequestration, will that impact us?
>> That's a concern because we're dependent maybe more than other areas on government
spending, our defense and research, things like that.
I think what that will do is slow our recovery, we would add more jobs but I don't want to
derail it. Ear on a solid ground right now and we can
fight through any illaffects of the sequestration. >> PEGGY PICO: Erik, did you think this was
a solid indicator, we are moving up as far as the economy in San Diego?
>> I think so. We've gotten through the risk of a doubledip
recession, or downturn. Again, the key is going to be for that consumer
confidence to grow and continue to solidify and if it does we will see job growth in retail,
increased construction activity and our housing economy continue to recover and recover stronger
and that's going to be the key. We need to see those confidence numbers continue
to grow and solidify. >> PEGGY PICO: Alan, where are we lagging?
As far as job losses? >> There are concerns about retail at this
point. We have seen a slow down in terms of spending
nationally, I think part of it has to do with the fact that we have lost a lot of good paying
middle class jobs and that's held us back a little bit but overall I think things are
moving in the right direction at this point >> PEGGY PICO: Good news for a change, Alan
and Erik thanks for talking with us.