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IN THESE CHALLENGING ECONOMIC
TIMES WHEREHE FISCAL CLIFF IS
LOOMING, PEOPLE ARE WORRIED
ABOUT SAVING ENOUGH FOR
RETIREMENT.
DAVID SCRANTON IS HERE WITH TIPS
FOR CUTTING THROUGH THE
CONFUSION TO SAVE COMFORTABLY
FOR YOUR RETIREMENT.
LET'SALK ABOUT YOUR BUSINESS
FILE.
IT'S KIND OF UNIQUE.
I LIKE TO TELL PEOPLE THAT I
SPECIAL ICE IN EVERYTHING OTHER
THAN THE STOCK MARKET.
IN OTHER WORDS, WE SPECIALIZE IN
THE UNIVERSE OF INCOME
GENERATING STRATEGIES.
OK, HOW DID YOU DEVELOP THAT.
IT ALL STARTED BECAUSE I HAD
BEEN A STOCK MARKET-BASED
INVESTMENT ADVISOR, LIKE MOST IN
THE HEY DAY OF THE 1980'S AND
1990'S.
I'D ALSO BEEN A PRETTY GOOD
STUDENT OF STOCK MARKET HISTORY
AND HISTORICAL CYCLES AND TRENDS
AND HAD REALIZED THAT WE'RE
ABOU TO COME TO THE END OF THE
GOOD TIME AND THE MARKET WAS
GOING TO TURN.
WHEN IT DID TURN, IT WAS
PROBABLY GOING TO BE ABOUT 20
YEARS IN A BEAR MARKET BEFORE
THINGS GOT BETTER.
IN THE SPIRIT OF TRYING TO DO
WHAT'S BEST FOR MY CLIENTS, I
CHANGED MY BUSINESS MODEL RIGHT
IN THE LATE 1990'S.
WHY DO YOU SAY HISTORY IS
RELEVANT AND IMPORTANT WHEN
MAKING INVEMENT DECISIONS?
HISTORY IS THE THING THAT GOT
ME TO DRAW THIS CONCLUSION, AND
QUITE FRANKLY, YOU KNOW, WE GO
BACK NEARLY 200 YEARS IN THE
STCK MARKET, YOU FIND EVERY
TIME WE HAVE A BULL MARKET
CYCLE, GOOD PERIOD, IT'S USUALLY
15 YEARS, GIVE OR TAKE A LITTLE
BIT.
EVERY TIME WE GET INTO A BEAR
MARKET CYCLE, IT'S USUALLY 20
YEARS OR SO OR LONGER.
WHEN I TALK ABOUT A BEAR MARKET,
I MEAN AN EXTEND CREATIVE ZERO
GROWTH ACCOMPANIED BY A LOT OF
MARKET VOLATILITY.
OW CONSISTENT ARE LONG TERM
MARKET CYCLES?
THEY'RE REPEATABLE, PREDICTABLE?
THEY ARE VERY REPEATABLE AND
PREDICTABLE.
IN HISORY, GOING BACK AS MUCH
AS 200 YEARS, YES.
WHAT'S THE DIFFERENCE?
A LOT OF PEOPLE TALK ABOUT
ECONOMIC RECOVERIES, RECESSIONS
AND SO ON YOU.
HAVE TO UNDERSTAND THAT IN A 20
YEAR BEAR MARKET, YOU HAVE GOOD
ECONOMIC TIMES AND BAD ECONOMIC
TIMES.
THAT BAD STOCK MARKET CYCLE,
THAT BEAR MARKET IS MUCH MORE
POWERFUL THAN EVEN THE GOOD
ECONOMIC TIS.
THAT'S WHY I CALL IT A BIO
RHYTHM.
IT'S MUCH BIGGER THAN ANY OHER
ECONOMIC CYCLE.
WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY GROWING
YOUR MONEY THE OLD FASHIONED
WAY.
YOU KNOW, TRADITIONAL
INVESTING HAS TO DO WITH
INVESTING IN THE STOCK MARKET.
I OFTEN SAY THAT YOU'RE INVESTOR
IS CROSSING HIS FINGERS OR TOES,
HOPING TO GET CAPITAL
APPRECIATIO.
SOMETIMES WE FIND OUT THAT IT
CAN TURN INTO SHRINKAGE INSTEAD.
INVESTING THE OLD FASHIONED WAY
IS INVESTING FOR INCOME.
THAT INCOME CAN BE USED TODAY
AND SPENT IF SOMEONE NEEDS IT,
OR CAN BE REINVESTED TO GROW
YOUR MONEY THE OLD FASHIONED WAY
OR ORGANICALLY.
GOT IT.
WHY DID YOU DECIDE TO WRITE THE
BOOK?
I WROTE THE BOOK OUT OF
FRUSTRATION THAT MY PEERS, I
DON'T MEAN PEERS LOCALLY, HAVE
AN ABILITY TO BURY THEIR HEADS
IN THE SAND WHEN THE MARKET
TURNS BAD.
THEY TELL CLIENTS TO HANG IN
THERE AND STAY THE COURSE.
ACTUALLY, WHAT'S INTERESTING IS
WHEN THE FIRST DROP HAPPENED
SINCE THE TURN OF THE CENTURY
AND THE SUBSEQUENT RECOVERY
RIGHT AREN'T 2006, I'D HOPED
THAT A LOT OF OF MY PIERCE WOULD
CHANGE THEIR BUSINESS MOD EMAS I
DID AND I SAW THAT THEY JUST
HADN'T DONE IT
AT THAT POINT, I ACTUALLY
STARTED A COMPANY CALLED
ADVISOR'S ACADEMY WHERE WE TEACH
AND TRAIN AND PROVIDE RESEARCH
FOR OTHER ADVISERS.
I THOUGHT THAT WOULD HAVE
EFFECT.
UNFORTUNATELY, IT DIDN'T.
THE SECOND DROP HAPPENED IN
2008, 2009.
IT SEEMED MOST OF MY PEERS WERE
BURYING THEIR HEADS IN THE SAND.
I DECIDED IF I WANTED TO GET THE
WORD OUT TO THE PUBLIC ABOUT HOW
PREDICTABLE THESE CYCLES REALLY
ARE, THEN I NEED TO WRITE THE
BOOK.
GOT IT.
WHAT ARE SOME OF THE BENEFITS
WITH WORKING WITH A FINANCIAL
PROFESSIONAL?
WELL, EVERYBODY IS EMOTIONAL
ATTACHED TO THEIR MONEY.
THAT'S WHY OFTEN PEOPLE MAKE THE
LONG DECISIONS, YOU KNOW, BUYING
LOW AND SELLING HIGH IS A REALLY
SIMPLE CONCEPT, BUT IT'S NOT
EASY, BECAUSE THE HUMAN MIND
GS IN THE WAY.
THE IDEA IS THAT A FINANCIAL
ADVISOR IS SOMEBODY WHO SHOULD
BE EMOTIONAL DETACHED FROM YOUR
MOY, WHICH MEANS THEY SHOULD
MAKE GOOD OR AT LEAS HELP YOU
MAKE GOOD, LOGICAL INFORMED
DECISIONS.
THEY ALSO SHOULD BE ABLE TO
EDUCATE YOU.
A GOOD FINANCIAL ADVISOR IS KIND
OF LIKE A COACH.
A COACH CAN'T PLAYHE GAME, BUT
HE CAN TRY TO GET THE MOST OUT
OF HIS PLAYERS.
SURE.
WHERE CAN WE FIND YOUR BOOK,
DAVE?
IT IS AVAILABLE ON
AMAZON.COM OR BY CALLING MY
OFFICE IN WESTBROOK,
CONNECTICUT.
YOU HAVE SOME ADULT EDUCATION
CLASSES COMING UP.
YES, YES.
YOU NEED TO PREREGISTER,
EY'RE COST ASSOCIATED.
YES, WE'RE TEACHING TWO OF
THEM COMING UP.
FOR MORE INFORMATION, CALL OR
VISIT SCRANTONFINANCIAL
GROUP.COM.