Tip:
Highlight text to annotate it
X
>> THIS IS "GPS" THE GLOBAL
PUBLIC SQUARE.
WELCOME TO ALL OF YOU IN THE
UNITED STATES AND AROUND THE
WORLD.
I'M FAREED ZAKARIA.
WE'LL START TODAY'S SHOW WITH
SOME BIG QUESTIONS.
IS AL QAEDA BACK?
IS IRAQ COLLAPSING?
WE HAVE A VERY SHARP PANEL TO
TALK ABOUT THE VIOLENCE IN THE
MIDDLE EAST AND WHAT IS FUELING
IT.
ALSO, HAVE YOU MADE YOUR NEW
YEAR RESOLUTIONS TO STAY
HEALTHY?
THEN YOU WANT TO LISTEN TO DAVID
AGUS, ONE OF THE WORLD'S MOST
PROMINENT DOCTORS AND MEDICAL
RESEARCHERS, WHO HAS BOILED IT
DOWN TO SOME SIMPLE RULES FOR
THE NEW YEAR.
NEXT, EVERYONE IS TALKING ABOUT
AMERICA'S DECLINE IN THE MIDDLE
EAST, VIS-A-VIS CHINA, BUT A
MAJOR EUROPEAN INTELLECTUAL SAYS
DON'T BELIEVE ANY OF IT.
AND, ANOTHER INSTALLMENT OF HOW
TO RUIN YOUR ECONOMY IN FIVE
EASY STEPS.
LAST TIME VENEZUELA TICKED OFF
ALL THE BOXES.
WE FOUND ANOTHER COUNTRY THAT IS
FOLLOWING THE SAME SAD PATH.
FINALLY, FROM HEAD TO TOE
COVERING, INCLUDING THE EYES TO
NO COVERING AT ALL, WHAT IS
APPROPRIATE FOR THE MODERN
MUSLIM WOMAN?
I'LL SHARE A SURPRISING SURVEY.
>>> FIRST, HERE'S MY TAKE.
HERE'S A STARTLING STATISTIC.
MORE THAN 8,000 IRAQIS WERE
KILLED IN VIOLENT ATTACKS IN
2013.
THAT MAKES IT THE SECOND MOST
VIOLENT COUNTRY IN THE WORLD
AFTER ITS NEXT DOOR NEIGHBOR
SYRIA.
AS VIOLENCE HAS SPREAD AND
MILITANTS HAVE GAINED GROUND IN
SEVERAL MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRIES
PEOPLE HAVE BEEN WONDERING HOW
MUCH OF THIS HAS TO DO WITH
AMERICA, WITH THE OBAMA
ADMINISTRATION, AND ITS LACK OF
AN ACTIVE INTERVENTION IN THE
REGION?
"THE WALL STREET JOURNAL" AND
"COMMENTARY" MAGAZINE HAVE BOTH
ARGUED THAT THE OBAMA
ADMINISTRATION'S DECISION TO
WITHDRAW TROOPS FROM IRAQ TO
ZERO IS DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE RENEWED VIOLENCE IN THAT
COUNTRY.
THEY AND OTHERS HAVE ALSO ARGUED
BECAUSE THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION
STAYED OUT OF SYRIA, THINGS
THERE HAVE SPIRALED DOWNWARD.
LET ME SUGGEST THAT THE SINGLE
GREATEST BURDEN FOR THE VIOLENCE
INTENTIONS ACROSS THE ARAB WORLD
RIGHT NOW LIES WITH THE
PRESIDENT, THOUGH NOT PRESIDENT
OBAMA.
AND IT LIES WITH AN AMERICAN
FOREIGN POLICY THAT WAS NOT TOO
PASSIVE, BUT RATHER TOO ACTIVE
AND INTERVENTIONIST IN THE
MIDDLE EAST.
THE INVASION AND OCCUPATION OF
IRAQ TRIGGERED WHAT HAS BECOME A
REGIONAL RELIGIOUS WAR IN THE
MIDDLE EAST.
LET ME EXPLAIN HOW SPECIFICALLY.
FROM MARCH THROUGH JUNE OF 2003
IN THE FIRST MONTHS OF THE
OCCUPATION OF IRAQ, THE BUSH
ADMINISTRATION MADE A SERIES OF
CATASTROPHIC DECISIONS.
IT AUTHORIZED THE DISBANNING OF
THE IRAQI ARMY IN TOTAL AND
SIGNED ON TO A POLICY OF
DEBAATHIFICATION WHICH MEANT
ANYONE IN IRAQ WHO HAD BEEN IN
THE TOP FOUR LEVELS OF THE BAATH
PARTY UNDER SADDAM HUSSEIN WOULD
BE BARRED FROM HOLDING ANY
GOVERNMENT JOB.
THIS MEANT TENS OF THOUSANDS OF
BUREAUCRATS, SCHOOL TEACHERS,
HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF SOLDI
SOLDIERS, ALMOST ALL OF WHO WERE
SUNNI WERE THROWN OUT OF WORK.
ANGRY, DISPOSESED AND MANY
ARMED.
THIS MEANT THE COLLAPSE OF THE
IRAQI STATE AND OF POLITICAL
ORDER, BUT IT ALSO MEANT THE
RISE OF A SECTARIAN STRUGGLE
THAT PERSISTS TO THIS DAY.
THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION WENT TO
WAR IN IRAQ TO SPREAD DEMOCRACY,
BUT, IN FACT, IT SPREAD
SECTARIANISM, DISPLACING THE
SUNNI ELITE WHO HAD LONG RULED
THE COUNTRY AND REPLACING IT
WITH A HARDLINE SHIA RELIGIOUS
SET OF PARTIES THAT USED THEIR
NEWFOUND POWER TO REPRESS THE
SUENIES AS THEY HAD BEEN
REPRESSED.
PRIME MINISTER NURI AL MALIKI
HAS BEEN UNWILLING TO SHARE
POWER WITH THE SUNNIS WHO
COMPRISE ABOUT 20% OF IRAQ AND
THAT HAS DRIVEN THEM INTO
OPPOSITION, EXTREMISM AND
TERRORISM.
DURING THE SURGE, HE MADE
SEVERAL PROMISES TO CHANGE HIS
WAYS, BUT OVER THE LAST FEW
YEARS, HE HAS RENEGED ON EVERY
ONE OF THEM.
THIS SECTARIAN POWER STRUGGLE IS
THE ORIGINS OF THE CIVIL WAR
THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING IN IRAQ
FOR 11 YEARS.
IT IS THE CANCER THAT HAS SPREAD
BEYOND IRAQ INTO OTHER COUNTRIES
FROM SYRIA TO LEBANON.
THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION SEEMED
TO HAVE MADE THIS MASSIVE
STRATEGIC ERROR ALMOST
UNTHINKINGLY.
THERE IS A REPORT THAT A FEW
MONTHS BEFORE THE INVASION,
PRESIDENT BUSH MET WITH THREE
IRAQI EXILES AND APPEARED
UNAWARE THAT IRAQ CONTAINED
WITHIN IT SUNNIS AND SHIAS AND
ARAB LEADER CONFIRMED TO ME IN
HIS MEETINGS WITH THE PRESIDENT
IT WAS CLEAR THAT BUSH DID NOT
EVEN UNDERSTAND THERE WAS A
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
SECTS.
OTHERS IN THE ADMINISTRATION
BETTER INFORMED, WERE CONVINCED
THAT THE SHIA WOULD BE
PLURALLESS AND DEMOCRATS.
THOSE OF US WHO WARNED OF THESE
DANGERS AT THE TIME, WERE
DISMISSED AS PESSIMISTS.
SO IF WE'RE TRYING TO UNDERSTAND
WHY WE SEE A SUNNI/SHIA BATTLE
UNFOLDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE
EAST, KEEP IN MIND, THAT THE
PRIMARY CAUSE IS NOT THAT THE
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION DID NOT
INTERVENE IN SYRIA, IT IS THAT
THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION DID IN
IRAQ.
LET'S GET STARTED.
>> YOU'VE HEARD MY TAKE ON
WHAT'S BEHIND THE TURMOIL IN THE
MIDDLE EAST NOW LET'S TURN TO A
PANEL OF EXPERTS.
RASHID KHALIDI IS A PROFESSOR OF
MODERN ARAB STUDIES AT COLUMBIA
UNIVERSITY, AUTHOR OF "BROKERS
OF DECEIT HOW THE U.S. HAS
UNDERMINED PIECE IN THE MIDDLE
EAST" RICHARD HAAS THE PRESIDENT
OF THE COUNCIL ON FOREIGN
RELATIONS, DIRECTOR OF POLICY
PLANNING AT THE STAPTS
DEPARTMENT IN 2001 TO 2003 AS
THE IRAQ WAR WAS BEING PLANNED
AND FOR ITS START.
FROM 2004 TO 2007, MEGHAN
O'SULLIVAN WAS DEPUTY NATIONAL
SECURITY ADVISER AT THE WHITE
HOUSE FOR IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN.
SHE'S NOW A PROFESSOR AT THE
KENNEDY SCHOOL AT HARVARD.
AND PETER BERGEN, OF COURSE, IS
CNN'S NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST
AND THE DIRECTOR OF THE NATIONAL
SECURITY STUDIES PROGRAM AT THE
NEW AMERICA FOUNDATION.
RASHID, WHEN YOU LOOK AT ALL THE
TURMOIL BREWING IN THE MIDDLE
EAST, WHAT DO YOU SEE AS THE
CAUSE?
>> WELL, THERE ARE MANY CAUSES,
BUT ONE CAUSE IS THAT YOU HAVE
SOME SECTARIAN ISSUES THAT ARE
WORKING THEMSELVES OUT.
ANOTHER CAUSE IS A WHOLE
POLICIES THAT I THINK ERICAN -
EXACERBATED THINGS.
A THIRD CAUSE IS AMERICAN
ALLIANCES WITH COUNTRIES THAT
HAVE THEIR OWN DOGS IN SOME OF
THESE FIGHTS, SAUDI ARABIA,
ISRAEL, OTHERS.
EACH OF THESE I THINK EXACERBATE
ASSET OF PROBLEMS.
>> HOW DO YOU SEE THEM?
>> A BIG PART COMES FROM WITHIN
THE MIDDLE EAST ITSELF.
THESE ARE SOCIETIES THAT HAVE
NEVER REALLY DEALT SUCCESSFULLY
WITH MODERNENITY.
PEOPLE CONFUSE DEMOCRACY AND MA
JOR TARISM.
THERE'S NOT A SENSE OF MINORITY
RIGHTS OR PLACES IN THESE
SOCIETIES.
SO ALL SORTS ARRIVE BETWEEN
GOVERNMENTS AND INDIVIDUALS.
THOSE ISSUES HAVE NEVER BEEN
SORTED OUT.
IT'S ALWAYS THE LEAST SUCCESSFUL
PART OF THE WORLD.
IN MANY WAYS I AGREE, FOREIGN
POLICY BY REMOVING SECTORS OF
AUTHORITY IN MANY CASES
UNATTRACTIVE BUT CENTERS OF
AUTHORITY AND NOT DOING THINGS
NEEDED TO PUT SOMETHING BETTER
OR AT LEAST EP DURING IN ITS
PLACE.
WE SAW ASSAD MUST GO, PUT
PRESSURE ON HIM BUT VIRTUALLY
NOTHING HAPPENS TO SEE HE GOES
MUCH LESS TO REPLACE LIMB WITH
SOMETHING BETTER.
GADHAFI MUST GO.
NO BOOTS ON THE GROUND.
I'M NOT SAYING WE SHOULD HAVE
DONE BOOTS ON THE GROUND BUT
BEFORE THE UNITED STATES STARTS
ADVOCATING OR PUSHING FOR REGIME
CHANGE BE IT IRAQ, LIBYA OR
SYRIA, WE NEED TO BE SURE WE
HAVE SOMETHING WE THINK THAT'S
BETTER TO GO IN ITS PLACE AND WE
ARE PREPARED TO DO THE EXPENSIVE
PROCESS OF PUTTING THERE.
IF NOT, WE HAVE BETTER START
THINKING TWICE BEFORE WE MAKE
REGIME CHANGE THE DEFAULT OPTION
FOR AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY.
>> IT SEEMS TO ME, MEGHAN, WHAT
RICHARD IS DESCRIBING, YOU KNOW,
IS THAT THERE WAS A SETTLED
ORDER IN THE MIDDLE EAST, MAY
HAVE BEEN AN UNJUST ONE, AND IN
MANY OF THOSE CASES THE SHIA
WERE PERSECUTED AND ONE OF THE
THINGS THAT IRAQ UNLOCKED WAS
THIS, YOU KNOW, WHAT VALLY CALLS
THE REVIVALAL OF THE SHIA.
I REMEMBER READING HIS BOOK AND
IN IT HE SAID ALL THE WARS OF
THE MIDDLE EAST ARE NOW GOING TO
BE WARS WITHIN ISLAM ON THE
SECTARIAN LINES AND IT TURNED
OUT TO BE QUITE --
>> I THINK VALI WAS RIGHT ON
THAT POINT.
NOT ONLY SHIA MAJORITIES COMING
TO POWER BUT WE REALLY SAW KIND
OF THE UP ENDING OF THE WHOLE
ORDERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST.
WE'RE STILL SEEING THAT PLAY
OUT.
WHERE YOU HAVE MINORITY VEE
GEEMS GOVERNING MAJORITY
REGIMES.
>> LIKE ASSAD.
>> SOME WAYS SYRIA IS THE EXACT
MIRROR OPPOSITE OF IRAQ WHERE
YOU HAD A SUNNI MINORITY
GOVERNING A SHIA MAJORITY.
I AGREE THERE'S BEEN AN UP ENDED
BUT IT'S TOO EASY TO THINK THAT
CALM STABILITY WHICH WE FONDLY
LOOK BACK ON IN SOME CASES,
WOULD HAVE PERSISTED IN THE
ABSENCE OF WHAT HAPPENED OVER
THE LAST DECADE.
AS BOTH OUR GUESTS HERE HAVE
ALREADY INTIMATED, SECTARIANISM
DIDN'T COME ABOUT AFTER 2003 AND
THE REMOVAL OF SADDAM.
CERTAINLY AS SOMEONE WHO SPENT
THE BETTER PART OF TWO YEARS IN
IRAQ, I'LL BE THE FIRST TO ADMIT
THERE WERE THINGS WE DID THAT
INADVERTENTLY REALLY DID
INCREASE SECTARIANISM, BUT I
WOULD SAY THAT NOTHING HAS
HAPPENED FROM THAT POINT TO
WHERE WE ARE TODAY, WAS
INEVITAB
INEVITABLE.
>> PETER, WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> CLEARLY PRIME MINISTER MALIKI
HAS ADDED TO THE KIND OF
TENSIONS IN IRAQ BY, YOU KNOW,
EXCLUDING SUNNI OFFICIALS AND,
OF COURSE THEN YOU HAVE AL QAEDA
COMING IN NOW TAKING PARTS OF
FALLUJAH.
ONE OF THE REASONS IT'S NOT AN
INEVITABLE SITUATION IS WE MIGHT
SEE SUNNI TRIBES IN FALLUJAH
RISING UP AGAINST AL QAEDA
AGAIN.
YOU MIGHT SEE AS WE'VE SEEN SOME
OF THE OTHER SYRIAN REBEL GROUPS
ATTACK AL QAEDA GROUPS IN SYRIA
AND SO, YOU KNOW, THEY --
ENCODED IN THEIR DNA, THEY SEEM
TO MAKE THE SAME SET OF
MISTAKES, TRY TO IMPOSE TALIBAN
RULE ON THE POPULATION THAT
DOESN'T GO DOWN WELL AND PEOPLE
RISE UP AGAINST THEM OR WAIT TO
BE LIBERATED BY SOME OUTSIDE
FORCE.
>> YOU TALK ABOUT THE MISTAKES
THAT MAY HAVE BEEN MADE
INADVAERNTSLY BUT I KNOW YOU
ALSO FEEL ONE MISTAKE THE OBAMA
ADMINISTRATION MADE IN IRAQ WAS
GOING DOWN TO ZERO.
DO YOU REALLY THINK THAT 5,000
AMERICAN TROOPS WOULD HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO MATERIALLY AFFECT --
WHAT APPEARS TO HAVE HAPPENED,
MY SENSE, THE SHEER MAJORITY
SIMPLY HAVE NOT SHARED POWER
WITH THE SUNNI MINORITY WHICH
HAS MADE THEM MORE EXTREME AND
RESORT TO BRUTAL TERRORISM,
WOULD 5,000 AMERICAN TROOPS HAVE
CHANGED THAT?
>> CERTAINLY I THINK IT'S TOO
SIMPLISTIC TO SAY HAD THE OBAMA
ADMINISTRATION LEFT A RESILL
DUAL FORCE IN IRAQ, 5,000 OR
10,000, THAT THINGS WOULD BE
DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT TODAY.
I WOULD SAY THERE ARE TWO WAYS
IN WHICH THE OBAMA
ADMINISTRATION MIGHT HAVE HAD A
DIFFERENT POLICY THAT COULD HAVE
MATERIALLY AFFECTED THE OUTCOME.
THE FIRST IS, IF THEY HAD LEFT A
RESIDUAL FORCE IT WOULD HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO TRAIN, CONTINUE TO
WORK WITH THE IRAQI SECURITY
FORCES, WHICH HAVE JUST SHOWN
THEMSELVES NOT TO BE UP TO
COMBATTING THE AL QAEDA INFILL
TRANTS FROM THE SYRIAN BORDER.
SECONDLY, THIS IS THE PART THAT
MOST PEOPLE REALLY UNDERESTIMATE
IS THE FACT THAT THE U.S.
PRESENCE WAS SOMEWHAT OF A
CORRECTIVE COMPASS ON IRAQI
POLITICS.
FOR THE LAST SINCE 2003, IRAQI
POLITICS WERE A COMPETITION
BETWEEN THE TRADITIONAL ARAB
POLITICAL CULTURE AND THE NEW
INSTITUTIONS THAT IRAQIS AND
AMERICANS WERE TRYING TO BRING
IN.
AND THE FACT --
>> THE FACT THAT WE SUPPORTED
MALIKI WHO HAS TURNED OUT TO BE
A HARDLINED SHIA THUG.
WE SUPPORTED HIM EVEN THOUGH HE
DIDN'T WIN THE LAST ELECTION
WITH THE MAJORITY.
>> BUT AFTER WE REMOVED THE
TROOPS, HE ACTUALLY -- THE REST
OF THE IRAQI POPULATION REALLY
LOOKED AT THIS AND SAID, WELL,
AMERICA ISN'T REALLY THERE TO
BUTTRESS THESE NEW INSTITUTIONS
AGAINST THE RESURGENT CULTURE
AND MALIKI TOOK THAT AS A SIGNAL
THAT HE ACTUALLY COULD HAVE HIS
WAY AND THERE WOULDN'T BE AS
MUCH OF A PUSHBACK ON HIM.
WHAT WE SEE REALLY HAPPENING IN
THE LAST WEEK IS THE FACT THAT
AL QAEDA HAS LEARNED TO BE VERY
GOOD AT EXPLOITING SOCIAL AND
POLITICAL TENSIONS IN IRAQ AND
YOU SEE THESE TWO THINGS COMING
TOGETHER IN THE REAL AND VERY
SERIOUS PROBLEMS THAT HAVE
MANIFESTED THEMSELVES IN AL
ANBAR.
>> WHEN WE COME BACK, WE'RE
GOING TO TALK ABOUT WHAT THE
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION COULD DO TO
RESPOND TO ALL THIS REGIONAL
STUFF AND, OF COURSE, TALK A
LITTLE BIT ABOUT BOB GATES
MEMOIRS, THOUGH NONE OF US HAVE
READ.
>>> AND WE ARE BACK WITH RASHID
KHALIDI, RICHARD HAAS, MEGHAN
O'SULLIVAN AND PETER BERGEN
TALKING ABOUT THE MIDDLE EAST.
RASHID, WHEN WE TALK ABOUT ALL
THIS TURMOIL GOING ON IN THE
MIDDLE EAST AND ALMOST
EVERYWHERE IT SEEMS TO HAVE
TAKEN ON A SECTARIAN QUALITY,
SECT AGAINST SECT, YOU KNOW,
THIS BRINGS THIS OLD TOPIC WHICH
IS, ARE THESE ANCIENT HATREDS OR
ARE THEY MODERN POLITICIANS WHO
ARE EXPLOITING THESE DIVIDES?
THE SHIA/SUNNI DIVIDE GOES BACK
TO THE 7th CENTURY.
IS THAT WHAT IS AT THE ROOT
HERE?
>> NO.
VERY SIMPLY NO.
YOU HAD PEOPLE CONVERTING FROM
SHIA TO SUNNI, IN IRAQ IN THE
EARLY 20th CENTURY.
INTERMARRIAGE ALL OVER IRAQ, ALL
OVER LEBANON.
I CHALLENGE ANYBODY TO FIND AN
INSTANCE FROM THE 18th TO THE
BEGINNING OF THE 20th CENTURY
WHERE SECTARIANISM IS THE
PRIMARY DIVIDE IN ANY ONE OF
THESE SOCIETIES WHERE SUNNIS AND
SHIAS LIVE TOGETHER.
>> WHAT TURNS IT ON?
>> ONE OF THE THINGS THAT TURNS
IT ON IS THE CREATION OF
SECTARIAN STRUCTURES BY THE
COLONIAL POWERS, THE FRENCH IN
PARTICULAR IN LEBANON AND IN
SYRIA AND THE BRITISH IN IRAQ,
PLAYED A SECTARIAN GAME.
WE THEN CAME IN WITH OUR P IN MY
VIEW, SOMEWHAT LIMITED
UNDERSTANDING OF THESE THINGS
AND IN IRAQ, DISMANTLED THE
AWFUL STRUCTURE THAT THE BAATH
HAD CREATED BUT WE ALSO
DISMANTLED A STATE THAT HAD BEEN
BUILT UP SINCE TIMES, AND THAT
IS TO MY WAY OF THINKING ONE OF
THE SERIOUS PROBLEMS THAT WE'RE
FACING ALL OVER THIS REGION, IN
LIBYA I'M AFRAID INCREASINGLY IN
SYRIA AND CERTAINLY IN IRAQ.
>> WHEN ONE LOOKS AT THIS FROM
AN AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY POINT
OF VIEW, WHAT IS ALSO STRIKING
IS IF OUR REAL ENEMY ARE THE
SUNNI EXTREMIST MILITANT/AL
QAEDA, THEIR BIGGEST ENEMY IS
ALSO IRAN.
SO WE IN A VERY ODD WAY ARE, YOU
KNOW -- WE HAVE THE SAME ENEMY
AS IRAN BUT WE ALSO -- IRAN IS
ALSO OUR ENEMY SO HOW DO WE MAKE
SENSE OF THIS.
>> ONE OF THE RULES OF THE
MIDDLE EAST IS THE ENEMY OF THE
ENEMY CAN STILL BE YOUR ENEMY.
SO, YOU KNOW, SIMPLY BECAUSE YOU
HAVE COMMON ENEMIES DOESN'T MEAN
YOU NECESSARILY ALIGN.
I THINK NOW, THOUGH, LOOK WE ARE
WHERE WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE EAST
WE'RE STILL IN THE EARLY PHASE
OF WHAT COULD BE A GENERATION
LONG STRUGGLE.
IT IT'S HARD FOR ME TO
EXAGGERATE HOW PESSIMISTIC I AM
ABOUT IT.
I THINK WE HAVE TO BASICALLY
ACKNOWLEDGE WE CAN'T REMAKE
THESE SOCIETIES ANY TIME SOON OR
QUICKLY.
WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO DO SOME
COUNTER TERRORISM, THINGS
OURSELVES, FIND LIMITED PARTNERS
WITH GOVERNMENTS WHERE WE CAN,
TRIBESMEN IN SOME CASES WHERE WE
CAN.
THE GOOD NEWS IS WE'RE A LITTLE
BIT LESS DEPENDENT ON THE REGION
IN TERMS OF ENERGY.
WE'VE BUILT A LITTLE BIT OF OUR
CUSHION.
BUT FOR THE NEXT PHASE OF
HISTORY, THE -- WE'VE ENTERED
ESSENTIAL I A POST-AMERICAN ERA
WHERE OUR ABILITY TO BE THE
DOMINATE -- SOMEONE SHOULD WRITE
A BOOK ABOUT THAT.
IT'S TRUE.
IT'S NOT GOING TO BE GOOD FOR
THE PEOPLE IN THE REGION, IT'S
NOT GOING TO BE GOOD FOR
OURSELVES, IT'S NOT GOING TO BE
GOOD FOR THE WORLD BECAUSE WE
CAN'T DO AWAY WITH THE ABILITY
OF THE MIDDLE EAST, LARGELY FOR
WORSE, TO HAVE REAL
REPERCUSSIONS BEYOND THE
GEOGRAPHICAL CONFINES.
>> DO YOU THINK IRAQ COULD
UNRAVEL?
YOU KNOW, IT FEELS AS THOUGH
WHAT'S HAPPENING NOW AS RICHARD
WAS SAYING, IT ONLY SEEMS TO
HAVE A DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY?
>> I THINK THAT THE POSSIBILITY
IS REAL.
AND WE'RE SEEING THE POTENTIAL
RE-EMERGENS OF TWO VERY FAMILIAR
AND OMINOUS PATTERNS AND WE SEE
THEM PLAYING OUT IN AN BAR EVEN
OVER THE LAST WEEK.
ONE IS THE EXCLUSION OF THE
SUNNIS FROM THE POLITICAL
PROCESS.
YOU CAN'T HAVE A MULTIETHNIC,
MULTISECTARIAN SOCIETY GOVERNED
BY ONE GROUP AND AS LONG AS, YOU
KNOW, POLITICS ARE ORG FIZED
ALONG THOSE REALMS.
SO THE SECOND THING THAT IS
OMINOUS IS REALLY THIS IDEA THAT
AL QAEDA OR AL QAEDA AFFILIATES
WOULD HAVE A TOE HOLD, A SAFE HE
VEN IN ANBAR.
THAT WAS THE BEGINNING OF THE
CIVIL WAR IN IRAQ IN THE SENSE
IT WAS FROM THOSE STRONGHOLDS
THAT THE -- AL QAEDA IN IRAQ WAS
ABLE TO ACTUALLY EXECUTE WIDE
NUMBER OF ATTACKS ON SHIA
CIVILIANS.
>> SO GIVE US, PETER, LISTENING
TO ALL OF THIS, GIVE US A SENSE
OF WHAT IS THE STATE OF AL
QAEDA, HOW MUCH SHOULD WE WORRY
ABOUT IT?
>> WELL, THEY CONTROL MORE
TERRITORY IN THE MIDDLE EAST
THAN THEY HAVE IN THE 25-YEAR
HISTORY AND THEY'RE AN ARAB
ORGANIZATION, THEY CARE ABOUT
THE ARAB WORLD AND --
>> AFGHANISTAN WAS ALWAYS A
CAMP.
>> YEAH, IT WAS A TRAINING CAMP
IN A SENSE.
THAT IS WORSE.
YOU KNOW, THE COUNTERBALANCE
AGAINST THAT WE'VE SEEN PERHAPS
A HANDFUL OF AMERICAN CITIZENS
GO TO FIGHT IN SYRIA.
IT HASN'T ATTRACTED A LOT OF
JIHADI MILITANTS FROM THE UNITED
STATES.
IT HAS ATTRACTED HUNDREDS OVER A
THOUSAND FROM EUROPE, EUROPEAN
GOVERNMENTS ARE CONCERNED, THE
BRITISH OR THE SCANDINAVIAN
COUNTRIES, THE FRENCH YOU CAN
DRIVE FROM PARIS TO DAMASCUS.
IT'S BEEN MUCH MORE ATTRACTIVE
THAN IRAQ AS A JIHAD.
ASSAD IS THE PERFECT VILLAIN.
HE'S SECULAR, HE'S AN ALOE
WHITE, INFLICTING A TOTAL YAN
WAR ON THE POPULATION.
HE'S BEEN ATTRACTIVE AS SOMEONE
TO FIGHT.
GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS.
ONE OF THE REASONS THE OBAMA
ADMINISTRATION DIDN'T INTERVENE
IN SYRIA THE TWO MOST EFFECTIVE
FORCES WERE AL QAEDA AND
HEZBOLLAH FIGHTING EACH OTHER.
WHY GET IN THAT MESS?
IF YOU LOOK AT IT FROM A REALIST
PERSPECTIVE, WE MAY NOT HAVE
MUCH TO WORRY HERE.
IF YOU LOOK AT IT A GLOBAL
PERSPECTIVE, IT'S OBVIOUSLY A
VERY BAD DEVELOPMENT.
>> FINAL THOUGHT IN TERMS OF THE
LENGTH OF THIS.
THERE'S GOING TO BE A FOREST
FIRE THAT JUST BURNS AND
SFWHURNS I THINK IF WE CONTINUE
TO ALLOW IN MANY CASES OUR
ALLIES, COUNTRIES LIKE SAUDI
ARABIA WHICH HAVE A SECTARIAN
AGENDA, AND OUR OBSESSION WITH
IRAN, TO DICTATE OR AFFECT
POLICY TO THE EXIT TENT TO WHICH
THEY HAVE, OUR LETTING THE
ISRAELIS CALL THE SHOTS
SOMETIMES, THESE THINGS ARE
GOING TO BE HARMFUL.
THE UNITED STATES HAS TO
UNDERSTAND THAT IT HAS
ABSOLUTELY NO DOG IN A SECTARIAN
FIGHT.
IT HELPED TO CREATE THIS BUT
IT'S A PROBLEM BEYOND US.
AND WE CANNOT CONTROL OR
DETERMINE OUTCOMES IN THIS
REGION.
I AGREE WITH PETER, THEY'RE
POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS, NOT
JUST FOR THE REGION, FOR THE
WORLD.
>> FINAL, FINAL THOUGHT.
BOB GATES.
THE MAN HAS A REPUTATION FOR
COMPLETE DISCRETION AND THEN HE
WRITES THIS MEMOIR THAT DOES NOT
SEEM THE SOLE OF DISCRETION.
WHAT WAS YOUR BIG TAKEAWAY.
YOU WORKED WITH LIMB.
>> GOOD FRIEND.
HE FEELS MORE COMFORTABLE IN THE
STATE OF WASHINGTON THAN IN THE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA.
LOOK, THIS IS SOMEONE WHO HAS
WORKED FOR SEVEN OR EIGHT
PRESIDENTS AND ONE WE'VE TALKED
ABOUT IT, AND HE CLEARLY HAD
SOME THINGS HE FELT HE NEEDED TO
SAY.
I THINK SO MUCH OF THE ATTENTION
HAS BEEN ON THE PERSONAL STUFF,
WHAT HE SAYS ABOUT THIS OR THAT
FIGURE.
I'VE NOT HAD A CHANCE TO DIGEST
THE 600 PAGES.
WHAT BOB WANTED TO WRITE WAS A
BOOK ABOUT HOW WASHINGTON H
CHANGED, THE QUALITY OF FOREIGN
POLICY HAS SUFFERED.
I HOPE THAT DOESN'T GET LOST IN
THE NEAR TERM AT THE SENSATIONAL
DETAILS.
>> WHICH OF THE SENSATIONAL
DETAILS SURPRISED YOU THE MOST?
>> WHY DIDN'T YOU ASK SOMEBODY
ELSE THAT QUESTION?
>> ALL RIGHT.
RICHARD HAAS, TRYING TO PRESERVE
HIS FRIENDSHIP, MEGHAN
O'SULLIVAN, RASHID KHALIDI.
WHY SOME IN ARGENTINA ARE
PROPOSING THEY MOVE THEIR
CAPITAL CITY AWAY FROM BUENOS
AIRES.
I WILL EXPLAIN.
>>> NOW FOR OUR WHAT IN THE
WORLD SEGMENT.
I WAS STRUCK BY A STRANGE
PROPOSAL THIS WEEK, A TOP
ARGENTINE LEADER SAYS HIS
COUNTRY SHOULD MOVE THE NATIONAL
CAPITAL FROM BUENOS AIRES IN THE
EAST FACING THE ATLANTIC TO A
NEW CITY UP IN THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE PACIFIC.
THIS WOULD BE AN IMMENSE CHANGE,
AKIN TO BRAZIL MOVING THE
CAPITAL TO BRASILIA.
NOW I LIKE BUENOS AIRES AND I
WOULD HATE ITTO SEE IT ABANDONED
BUT THE IDEA THAT ARGENTINA
NEEDS SOME SHAKING UP IS RIGHT
ON.
A FEW WEEKS AGO WE RAN A REPORT
TITLED "HOW TO RUIN YOUR
ECONOMY, IN FIVE EASY STEPS"
THAT SHOWED HOW A COUNTRY COULD
TURN IS TFL INTO A BASKET CASE
BY BAD DECISIONS.
THE SEGMENT WAS ABOUT VENEZUELA,
BUT ARGENTINA IS A WORTHY
RUNNER-UP.
IT STARTS OUT MUCH STRONGER THAN
VENEZUELA, REMEMBER, ARGENTINA
IS PART OF THE G-20, THE GROUP
OF THE 20 BIG ECONOMIES.
THE AVERAGE ARGENTINE EARNS MORE
THAN THE AVERAGE INDIAN AND
CHINESE COMBINED.
BUT ALL THESE FACTS MASK A
TROUBLING TREND.
LET'S SEE HOW IT FARED ON OUR
FIVE-POINT TEST.
FIRST, ATTACKING BIG BUSINESS.
THE ARGENTINE GOVERNMENT BEGAN
2014 BY FORCING THE COUNTRY'S
SUPERMARKETS TO FIX PRICES FOR
200 PRODUCTS.
SO BASICALLY THE PRICE OF MILK
OR FLOUR STAYS THE SAME FOR THE
CONSUMER EVEN IF DEMAND GOES UP,
INFLATION RISES OR THE SUPPLIER
HAS TO PAY MORE FOR IT.
IT DEFIES BASIC ECONOMICS.
STEP TWO, THE OFFICIAL STATISTIC
BUREAU SAYS PRICES RISE BY ABOUT
10% ANNUALLY, BUT THAT'S A TOTAL
FABRICATION.
IN REALITY, INFLATION IN
ARGENTINA RUNS AROUND 25% A
YEAR.
A BASKET OF GOODS THAT COST $100
IN JANUARY, WOULD COST $125 IN
DECEMBER.
ARGENTINA'S BLATANT FUDGING OF
OFFICIAL DATA HAS GOTTEN SO BAD
THAT THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY
FUND PUBLICLY WARNED BUENOS
AIRES TO START TELLING THE TRUTH
OR FACE EXPULSION.
NOW WHAT DOES HYPER INFLATION
USUALLY DO?
IT HURTS YOUR CURRENCY.
AND THAT'S STEP THREE.
ARGENTINES HAVE BEEN RUSHING TO
BUY U.S. DOLLARS AS A SAFER
CURRENCY TO PARK THEIR MONEY.
IN RESPONSE THE GOVERNMENT
ANNOUNCED LIMITS ON THE NUMBER
OF DOLLARS YOU CAN BUY.
THE RESULT, A RAMPANT BLACK
MARKET.
WHILE $1 OFFICIALLY BUYS YOU 6.6
ARGENTINE PESOS, YOU CAN GET
ALMOST DOUBLE THAT RATE ON THE
STREET, ABOUT 10.8 PESOS.
THE EFFECT A CORRUPT ECONOMY
SUFFERING BUSINESSES AND THE
LOSS OF FOREIGN INVESTMENT.
ARGENTINA TICKING OFF A FOURTH
BOX FROM THE PLAYBOOK AS WELL,
SUBSIDIES.
ACCORDING TO THE REGIONAL NEWS
AGENCY ARGENTINA'S TOTAL BILL ON
SUBSIDIES ON ENERGY LIKE FOR THE
TOTAL HALF OF 2013 ROSE BY 62%
FROM THE PREVIOUS YEAR.
THIS ISN'T THE ONLY FORM OF
GOVERNMENT SUPPORT.
ACCORDING TO THE WORLD BANK,
ARGENTINA IS ONE OF THE WORLD'S
MOST PROTECTIONIST COUNTRIES
MEANING THAT IT IMPOSES THE MOST
RESTRICTIONS ON GLOBAL TRADE,
SHIELDING ITS FAVORITE SECTORS.
NOW THAT BRINGS US TO OUR FINAL
CATEGORY, BECOMING A
DICTATORSHIP.
ARGENTINA IS, OF COURSE, A
DEMOCRACY, BUT PRESIDENT
CRISTINA FERNANDEZ HAS DISPLAYED
WORRYING SYMPTOMS.
BETWEEN HER AND HER LATE
HUSBAND, THEY HAVE RULED
ARGENTINA FOR A DECADE.
IN RECENT MONTHS CRISTINA
FERNANDEZ HAS CLAMPED DOWN ON
THE PEDIA, FLOATED RUMORS OF
AMENDING THE CONSTITUTION, TO
RUN FOR A THIRD TERM.
SHE'S BUILDING A CULTIVE
PERSONALITY.
>> ♪ DON'T CRY FOR ME
ARGENTINA ♪
>> FASHIONING HERSELF AFTER
EVITA, THE WIDOW OF THE FORMER
PRESIDENT, MADE FAMOUS ON STAGE
AND SCREEN.
ARGENTINA'S ATTEMPT TO MIRROR A
FAILED STATE LIKE VENEZUELA
TELLS A LARGER STORY.
LOOK AT THIS MAP OF LAT WERE
AMERICA FROM A GREAT ARTICLE IN
"THE WALL STREET JOURNAL" THIS
WEEK.
ON THE LEFT IN GREEN YOU HAVE
THE COUNTRIES FACING THE
PACIFIC.
MEXICO, PERU, CHILE AND COLOMBIA
AMONG THE COUNTRIES OPENING UP
THEIR ECONOMIES TO GREAT
SUCCESS.
ON THE RIGHT IN RED YOU SEE THE
OPPOSITE.
COUNTRIES THAT FACE THE
ATLANTIC, BRAZIL, ARGENTINA,
VENEZUELA, ARE CLOSING THEIR
ECONOMIES AND RESORTING TO
POPULISM.
THE COUNTRIES IN GREEN ARE
PROJECTED TO GROW NEARLY TWICE
AS FAST IN 2014 AS THE COUNTRIES
IN RED.
PERHAPS CHANGING ARGENTINA'S
CAPITAL TO BE CLOSER TO THE
COUNTRIES IN GREEN, CLOSER TO
THE PACIFIC, IS NOT SUCH A BAD
IDEA AFTER ALL.
UP NEXT, A CONVERSATION WITH ONE
OF THE WORLD'S TOP DOCTORS AND
CANCER EXPERTS.
HE HAS A GREAT LIST OF TIPS ON
HOW TO GET THE NEW YEAR STARTED
RIGHT.
>>> THE BEST WAY TO TACKLE
CANCER, HEART DISEASE, DIABETES
AND ALL THESE OTHER DISEASES
THAT PLAGUE THE MODERN WORLD IS
PREVENTION.
SO SAYS MY NEXT GUEST WHO HAS A
LIST OF WAYS TO WARD OFF THESE
DANGEROUS ILLNESSES.
PERFECT FOR YOUR NEW YEAR'S
RESOLUTIONS.
DAVID AGUS IS ONE OF THE WORLD'S
LEADING CANCER SPECIALISTS, HE
IS THE AUTHOR OF A NEW BOOK "A
SHORT GUIDE TO A LONG LIFE."
HE WAS STEVE JOBS' DOCTOR, AMONG
OTHER THINGS.
DAVID JOINING ME.
>> THANK YOU SO MUCH.
>> WHAT STRUCK ME ABOUT THIS IS
YOU REALLY FEEL STRONGLY ABOUT
THIS WHOLE IDEA THAT IF YOU JUST
TAKE SOME SIMPLE PREVENTATIVE
TASKS, YOU CAN REDUCE THE
POSSIBILITY OF MANY OF THESE
VERY BAD DISEASES, HEART
ATTACKS, EVEN CANCER, SO GIVE US
LIKE YOUR THREE OR FOUR RULES
FOR HOW TO REDUCE YOUR
LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING CANCER AND
A HEART ATTACK.
>> FIRST OF ALL, IT'S NOT ME AND
MY BELIEF.
THESE ARE THE DATA.
ALL I'M DOING IS TRYING TO PUT
THE DATA IN A FORMAT PEOPLE CAN
UNDERSTAND.
>> THE DATA THESE ARE DOUBLE
BLIND STUDIES.
YOU'RE NOT TAKING JUST ONE
STUDY.
>> THE REAL DATA THAT NEEDS TO
BECOME NORMAL BEHAVIOR.
WHEN DATA HITS A CRITICAL MASS,
INCONTROVERTIBLE WHAT THE
CONCLUSION IS WE NEED TO ACT ON
THEM AS A SOCIETY.
SO THE FIRST IS SOMETHING VERY
SIMPLE.
AND IT'S CALLED MOVEMENT OVER
TIME.
IN 1953 IN THE BRITISH TRANSIT
AUTHORITY THERE WERE 26,000
WORKERS.
HALF WERE THE BUS DRIVERS THAT
SAT 90% OF THE DAY AND HALF THE
TICKET TAKERS THAT WALKED UP AND
DOWN THE DOUBLE-DECKER BUSS.
WEIGHED THE SAME, SMOKED THE
SAME AND LIVED IN THE SAME
ENVIRONMENT, LOWER HEART DISEASE
AND CANCER IN THE TICKET TAKERS.
>> THE GUYS WALKING UP AND DOWN.
>> WE'VE BECOME A SOCIETY OF BUS
DRIVERS, SITTERS.
THE MORE IMPORTANT YOU ARE IN
THE COMPANY THE CLOSER YOUR
PARKING SPACE IS TO THE OFFICE.
THE RICHER YOU ARE --
>> I KNOW YOU HAVE THESE VIEWS.
I THINK TO MYSELF, OKAY, I TRY
TO EXERCISE MOSTLY EVERY DAY,
PROBABLY 30 OR 40 MINUTES.
YOU SAY THAT'S NOT ENOUGH.
IF YOU'RE SITTING AROUND THE
REST OF THE DAY IT'S LIKE YOU'RE
SMOKING CIGARETTES.
>> SITTING FOR FIVE HOURS --
>> WHAT ARE WE SUPPOSED TO DO?
>> GET UP EVERY HALF HOUR AND
WALK FOUR OR FIVE MINUTES.
THAT'S IT.
YOUR BODY WAS DESIGNED TO MOVE.
YOUR LYMPHATICS THAT CONTROL
YOUR SYSTEM HAS NO MUSCLE.
THE RHYTHMIC CONTRACTIONS OF THE
MUSCLES IN YOUR BODY WHEN YOU
WALK MAKE YOUR BODY WORK.
>> THE SECOND PREVENTATIVE
STRATEGY IS A VERY SIMPLE ONE.
IS THAT 2,000 YEARS AGO, HIP POT
CRATY SAID YOU TAKE THE BARK OF
THE WILLOW TREE, CHEW IT AND
PAIN AND FEVER GO AWAY.
THIS IS A COMPOUND IF YOU TAKE
IT EVERY DAY OVER 40 YOU REDUCE
THE DEATH RATE OF CANCER BY 30%.
IT'S CALLED A BABY ASPIRIN.
IT BLOCKS INFLAMMATION.
INFLAMMATION IS AT THE ROOT OF
CANCER, HEART DISEASE AND NEURO
COGNITIVE DECLINE.
DRAMATIC DATA, WE AS A SOCIETY
DON'T ACT ON IT.
IF EVERYBODY OVER THE AGE OF 40
TOOK A BABY ASPIRIN WE'VE HAD A
DRAMATIC EFFECT ON LIFE
EXPECTANCY IN THIS COUNTRY BUT
WE DON'T DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT.
>> I LIKE STATTENS ALSO BECAUSE
THEY HAVE AN ANTI-CANCER EFFECT
AND CAN DELAY HEART ATTACK AND
STROKE IN PEOPLE WITH A NORMAL
CHOLESTEROL.
SO VERY IMPORTANT THAT WE THINK
IN THOSE TERMS AND THAT WE
ACTUALLY THINK PREVENTATIVELY
THERE.
I SAY IT OUT OF WEAKNESS, NOT
STRENGTH.
YOU ALLUDED TO THE FACT THAT I
WAS INVOLVED IN STEVE JOBS'
CARE.
I KNOW THAT MOST PEOPLE WITH
ADVANCED CANCER WILL DIE OF THE
DISEASE AND I HAVE TO LOOK
SOMEONE IN THE EYE A COUPLE
TIMES A WEEK AND SAY I HAVE NO
MORE DRUGS FOR YOUR CANCER.
I DON'T WANT DO THAT ANYMORE.
WHAT WE HAVE IS A LIST OF 65
RULES OF THINGS TO DO AND MOT TO
DO THAT CAN PREVENT DISEASE THAT
ARE BASED ON DATA.
>> NOW, SO YOU'VE -- YOU SAY,
YOU KNOW, ASPIRIN, STATIN,
MOVEMENT, BUT IT'S INTERESTING,
ASPIRIN AND STATIN ARE THE ONLY
AS FAR AS I COULD TELL,
MEDICINE-LIKE THINGS THAT YOU
RECOMMEND.
FOR THE MOST PART YOU LOOK AT
THIS WHOLE INDUSTRY OF VITAMINS
AND SUPPLEMENTS AND YOU THINK
IT'S ALL BOWS GUS?
>> I DON'T THINK IT'S ALL BOGUS.
I KNOW IT'S ALL BOGUS.
THE DATA HAVE SHOWN AND THE
BIGGEST STUDY SEVERAL WEEKS AGO,
THE DATA HAVE SHOWN IN 65
SEPARATE STUDIES THERE HAS YET
TO EVER BE A BENEFIT IN A NORMAL
INDIVIDUAL WITH VITAMINS OR
SUPPLEMENTS.
EVER.
YET, IF A MAN TAKES VITAMIN E,
HE HAS A HIGHER RATE OF PROSTATE
CANCER.
FORMER SMOKERS TAKE BETA
CAROTENE AND VITAMIN A,
SIGNIFICANT HIGH RATE OF LUNG
CANCER OR DEATH.
IF A WOMAN TAKES HIGH DOSE OF
VITAMIN D INCREASED BONE
FRACTURE RATE.
SIGNIFICANT HARM POTENTIALLY.
NO BENEFIT YET WE SPEND MORE --
>> KIDS SHOULDN'T HAVE THE GUMMY
BEAR VITAMINS?
>> I'VE NEVER SEEN A KID WITH
SCURVY OR RICKETS.
EAT REAL FOOD.
IT'S THE KEY.
>> YOU ARE AGAINST JUICING.
EXPLAIN WHY.
THIS IS -- BECAUSE A LOT OF
PEOPLE THINK THEY'RE BEING
HEALTHY BY HAVING, YOU KNOW,
SOMETHING IN THE MORNING.
>> WE'RE A SOCIETY OF SHORTCUTS.
GET A JUICE, GET ALL MY
VEGETABLES AND NUTRIENTS.
SO IN 1746 JAMES HEAD OF THE
BRITISH ROYAL NAVY HAS LIMES ON
HIS SHIP.
YOU WERE AT SEA AND THEY WOULD
GET SCURVY.
THEY WON THE BATTLE.
AT THE END HE SAID I HAPPENED TO
SELL THE EXTRACTED LIMES TO CURE
SCURVY AND DIDN'T WORK.
>> THEY HAD BEEN EATING LIMES ON
THE SHIP BUT HE SELLS THE JUICE
AND IT DOESN'T WORK.
>> TOTALLY DIFFERENT.
AS SOON AS YOU SQUEEZE IT OR PUT
IT IN A BLENDER IT DEGRADES TO
BY PRODUCTS.
ALL YOU'RE GETTING IS A BIG BOWL
OF SUGAR.
SOMETHING WITH HIGH GLYCEMIC
INDEX.
EAT THE REAL FOOD.
FRUITS AND VEGETABLES AS GOOD AS
YOU CAN GET, JUICING NO BENEFIT
AT ALL.
JUST LOTS OF SUGAR.
>> WOW.
WHEN YOU TALKED ABOUT
INFLAMMATION, THIS IS ANOTHER
PIECE THAT YOU FOCUS ON A LOT,
WHICH IS IF THE BODY GETS
INFLAMMATIONS, IF IT GETS THE
FLU, THIS IS NOT JUST -- EVEN IF
YOU GET OVER THE FLU, THIS HAS A
LONG-TERM NEGATIVE EFFECT.
>> AND AGAIN, THAT'S ONE OF
THESE WE HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IN
TERMS OF PUBLIC POLICY.
IF YOU GOT THE FLU YOU WOULD
SURVIVE MOST LIKELY, ALTHOUGH
TENS OF THOUSANDS DIE.
A DECADE FROM NOW BECAUSE OF
HAVING THE PLU AND THE
INFLAMMATION YOUR RATE OF HEART
DISEASE AND CANCER ARE ELEVATED.
SO WE AS A SOCIETY SAY, YOU'RE
WELCOME TO GET THE FLU SHOT OR
NOT, YOU GET HEART DISEASE AND
CANCER WE WILL PAY FOR IT.
>> WHAT DO YOU THINK IS --
YOU -- ONE OF THE THINGS WE'VE
TALKED ABOUT IS, YOU'VE SAID TO
ME THAT IF, YOU KNOW, YOU KNOW
ALL THESE PEOPLE EXPOSED TO
ASBESTOS ARE GOING TO GET
CANCER, WE COULD EASILY -- IF BY
PUTTING THEM ON A PREVENTION
PROGRAM, WE COULD ACTUALLY MAKE
SURE MANY OF THEM DON'T DEVELOP
CANCER.
HAVE THEM TAKE ASPIRIN,
STATTENS.
WHY DON'T WE DO THAT?
>>.
>> I THINK THERE'S A LIABILITY
ISSUE HERE AND WHETHER THE
FUKUSHIMA IN JAPAN, ASBESTOS
HERE IN THE UNITED STATES, ONCE
YOU START TO SAY YOU HAVE BEEN
EXPOSED TO SOMETHING THAT COULD
CAUSE A PROBLEM AND I MAY HAVE
EXPOSED YOU YOU PUT YOURSELF UP
FOR LIABILITY.
AND SO WE NEED TO CHANGE --
>> IRONICALLY AS A RESULT OF
THAT YOU'RE NOT GIVING PEOPLE
THE --
>> THE BPEN TRANTS OF GETTING
CANCER WITH ASBESTOS EXPOSURE IS
20 OR 30%.
IT'S A FINANCIAL GAME.
HAVE TO CHANGE THAT.
FOR THE LAST DECADE OUR COUNTRY
HAS BEEN ABILITY HEALTH CARE
FINANCE.
ALL OF THE TALK IN WASHINGTON.
WE NEED TO CHANGE IT BACK TO
HEALTH.
>> YOU WERE ADVISING THE
JAPANESE GOVERNMENT, INCLUDING
PRIME MINISTER ABE ON THE
FUKUSHIMA BUSINESS.
WHAT'S THE LESSON YOU GREW?
>> WE KNOW WHAT HAPPENED AND WE
AS A SOCIETY HAVE TO LEARN FROM
IT.
ONE OF THE PROBLEMS IS, WE DON'T
KNOW WHO WAS EXPOSED AND TO HOW
MUCH.
WE DON'T HAVE A BLOOD TEST FOR
RADIATION EXPOSURE.
SO ONE OF THE THINGS WE HAVE TO
START TO DEVELOP IS A TRIAGE
TOOL.
WE KNOW DIRTY BOMBS WILL HAPPEN
IN THE WORLD.
HORRIBLE TO SAY, BUT IT WILL
HAPPEN.
AND SO WE NEED TO LEARN FROM
EVERY EXPERIENCE WE HAVE AND GET
BETTER.
>> SO WHEN I LISTEN TO ALL THESE
RULES, 60 SOMETHING, THE THING I
THINK TO MYSELF IS, HOW MANY OF
THESE DO YOU ACTUALLY FOLLOW?
>> WELL, LISTEN, I DO AS MUCH AS
I CAN.
THE KEY IS MODERATION.
I'M IN CHARGE OF MY HEALTH,
MAKING THE CONSCIOUS DECISION OF
WHAT I WANT TO DO.
I REALLY BELIEVE HEALTH WILL
CHANGE FROM EACH OFS US, THE
GROUND UP, NOT THE TOP DOWN.
WE'RE IN CHARGE OF OURSELVES.
>> THE KEY IS, DO IT NOW, DO IT
REGULARLY, DON'T WAIT FOR
SOMETHING --
>> NO QUESTION ABOUT IT.
WE'RE REACTIVE FIELD MEDICINE.
I WANT PEOPLE TO THINK ABOUT
TOMORROW, NOT JUST TODAY.
>> DAVID, PLEASURE TO HAVE YOU
ON.
>> GREAT.
THANK YOU, FAREED.
>> UP NEXT THE CASE FOR BEING
BULLISH ABOUT THE UNITED STATES.
MY GUEST IS NOT EVEN AN
AMERICAN.
HE IS A WELL-KNOWN EUROPEAN
THINKER AND HE SAYS AMERICA IS
GOING TO STAY NUMBER ONE FOR A
LONG TIME.
WE'LL BE RIGHT BACK.
>>> AMERICA IS IN GRAVE DECLINE
SAY THE WORRIERS.
CHINA ON OUR HEELS.
HARDLY THE FIRST TIME SUCH
CONCERNS HAVE BEEN VOICED SAYS
MY NEXT GUEST.
IN 1957, THERE WAS THE SPUTNIK
SCARE.
THE DOUBTERS WERE CERTAIN THE
U.S. HAD LOST THE SPACE RACE AND
THUS THE ENTIRE COLD WAR.
IN THE '60s AND '70s, THERE WAS
VIETNAM, LATER IN THE '70s CAME
THE ECONOMIC MALAISE OF JIMMY
CARTER AND THEN, OF COURSE, THE
JAPANESE COMPANIES THAT WERE
BUYING UP NEW YORK'S ROCKEFELLER
CENTER AND SWADSS OF CALIFORNIA.
ONCE AGAIN, MANY SAW THE U.S. AS
HAVING LOST TO A RIVAL.
NONE OF THOSE CAME TO PASS AS
JOSEPH JAFFY POINTS OUT IN HIS
BOOK "THE MYTH OF AMERICA'S
DECLINE, POLITICS, ECONOMICS AND
A HALF CENTURY OF FALSE PROOF
FASIES."
HE'S THE PUBLISHER AND EDITOR OF
THE GERMAN WEEKLY SITE AND
CURRENTLY A FELLOW AT THE HOOVER
INSTITUTION AT STANFORD.
WHY IS HE BULLISH ON AMERICA?
LISTEN IN.
>> WHAT TO YOU ARE THE KEY
INDICATORS OF ITS STRENGTH AND
SUCCESS?
YOU KNOW, AMERICANS LOOK AT
WASHINGTON AND CAN'T IMAGINE
SUCCESS?
>> YEAH.
>> I DELIBERATELY DID NOT LOOK
AT THE STUFF WE DO IN DAY-TO-DAY
JURNLISM, CONGRESS, POLARIZATION
OF PARTIES, ET CETERA.
I MEAN THESE KIND OF PATHOLOGIES
ARE PART OF DAILY LIFE IN
POLITICS IN OTHER COUNTRIES TOO.
WHAT I LOOKED AT TWO KINDS OF
FACTORS.
ONE WAS POSSESSIONS, ASSET IN
THE BANKS, OR NUCLEAR WEAPONS,
PROJECTION FORCES, NAVIES, AND
THEN YOU LOOK AT THESE THINGS
AND YOU WONDER HOW COULD ANYBODY
TALK ABOUT CHINA BEING A GREAT
POWER WHEN YOU SEE A U.S. NAVY
WHICH DWARFS THE NEXT 14 NAVIES.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT PROJECTION
FORCES WHERE THE UNITED STATES
HAS 10, 20 TIMES AS MANY BOMBERS
AND TROOP TRANSPORTERS, ET
CETERA.
THAT'S THE CASH IN THE BANK.
BUT THEN I THOUGHT, WELL, WHAT
WAS MORE INTERESTING WAS, TO
LOOK AT DRIVERS OF FUTURE POWER
LIKE EDUCATION.
17 OUT OF THE TOP 20
UNIVERSITIES ARE AMERICAN.
AND YOU AND I WENT TO TWO OF
THEM, DIDN'T WE?
>> BUT A LOT OF PEOPLE LOOK AT
EDUCATION AND THEY THINK THAT
BELOW THE UNIVERSITY LEVEL,
THAT'S ONE OF OUR GREAT
VULNERABILITIES.
>> GUESS WHAT?
WHEN YOU LOOK AT SOME OF THE
COMPARATIVE DATA, THE COUNTRIES,
30 COUNTRIES, THE UNITED STATES
COMES OUT ON TOP OF MIDFIELD,
AHEAD OF THE IT APPS AND FRENCH
IN TERMS OF READING AND WRITING
AND ARARITHMETIC.
THIS IS THE HUMAN CAPITAL OF THE
NEXT JENNER IN RAGS IS BEING
PRODUCED.
IF YOU LOOK AT R AND D SPENDING,
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE
UNITED STATES, SPENDS THREE OR
FOUR TIMES AS MUCH THAN THE
CHINESE.
YOU LOOK AT PATENTS, WHICH
ALREADY SHOWS YOU HOW THE HUMAN
CAPITAL GENERATED IN THE
UNIVERSITIES IS, YOU KNOW, HUGE
GAPS.
AND TO ME THE MOST IMPORTANT
THING IS IMMIGRATION.
THE UNITED STATES IS AN
IMMIGRATION COUNTRY, IT'S GOING
TO BE THE YOUNGEST COUNTRY, AND
IMMIGRANTS, IT TURNS OUT, YOU
KNOW, YOU ARE ONE OF THEM, I'M
KIND OF ONE OF THEM, DO
SOMETHING MIRACULOUS FOR THE
COUNTRY.
IT KEEPS THE COUNTRY FROM
FREEZING UP.
AND THE JAPANESE AND CHINESE AND
THE RUSSIANS, HAVEN'T EVEN BEGUN
TO THINK ABOUT IMMIGRATION.
>> AS YOU KNOW, I LIKE YOUR
ARGUMENT, I THINK A LOT OF THE
DATA IS QUITE -- IS STRIKING AND
POWERFUL.
>> AND CORRECT.
>> AND CORRECT.
THE PLACE THAT YOU HAVE GOTTEN A
LOT OF ATTENTION, BIG "WALL
STREET JOURNAL" ARTICLE IS ON
THIS ISSUE OF WHETHER CHINA WILL
AND THERE I WANT TO ARGUE WITH
YOU AND TELL YOU WHY I THINK
YOU'RE WRONG.
>> OKAY.
>> THE JAPANESE ANALOGY, WHICH
IS 1990, THE JAPANESE ECONOMY
STOPS GROWING AND THEREFORE
CHINA WILL NEVER MAKE IT IS
WRONG BECAUSE JAPAN IS ONE
FOURTH THE SIZE OF THE UNITED
STATES.
IN ORDER TO OVERTAKE THE U.S.
ECONOMY, IT WOULD HAVE HAD TO
HAVE A PER CAPITA INCOME,
AVERAGE INCOME, FOUR TIMES THAT
OF AN AMERICAN.
CHINA BY CONTRAST IS THREE TIMES
THE SIZE OF THE UNITED STATES,
FOUR TIMES BY MANY MEASURES, SO
ALL IT NEEDS IS TO HAVE A PER
CAPITA GDP ONE QUARTER THAT OF
THE UNITED STATES.
IN OTHER WORDS, THE ARGUMENT IS
NOT THAT CHINA WILL BECOME AN
ADVANCED INDUSTRIAL COUNTRY
EASILY WITH ALL THE TECHNOLOGY
THAT IMPLIES.
THE ARGUMENT IS CHINA CAN BE
ABOUT AS MODERN AN ECONOMY AS
BRAZIL, BUT BECAUSE IT HAS 1.2
BILLION PEOPLE, ONCE IT DOES
THAT, IT BECOMES THE LARGEST
ECONOMY IN THE WORLD.
>> THIS IS TRUE.
HOWEVER, TWO POINTS.
POINT NUMBER ONE IS THAT THE
CHINESE ARE FOLLOWING EXACTLY
THE SAME GROWTH MODEL,
OVERINVESTMENT, OVEREXPORTING,
UNDER VALUED CURRENCIES, UNDER
CONSUMPTION, THAT THE OTHER
TIGERS AND DRAGONS HAVE FOLLOWED
IN THE '50s AND '60s.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE DEMOGRAPHICS
YOU GET SOMETHING THAT IS OFTEN
OVERLOOKED IN THE REST OF THE
WORLD, I CALL THIS A CURSE OF
2020.
AT THAT POINT, CHINESE WILL BE
ONE-FIFTH OF THE POPULATION,
GROWTH POPULATION, BUT ONE
QUARTER OF THE OVER 60
POPULATION.
SO THAT ALL THESE GREAT MIRACLES
BY AMPLE AND CHEAP LABOR AND
STRANGELY ENOUGH, EVEN THOUGH
IT'S SUCH A HUGE COUNTRY, THE
SUPPLY LABOR IS GOING TO COME
DOWN.
BY THE WAY, DOUBLE DIGIT NO
LONGER EXISTS, DOUBLE DIGIT
GROWTH IN CHINA, SO THEY'RE NOW
AT 7, 7.5, WE CAN SAY PART IS
CYCLICAL BECAUSE OF THE WORLD
ECONOMY, BUT THERE IS SOMETHING
STRUCTURAL THERE WHICH REPEATS
THE SORT OF EXPERIENCE OF THE
TIGERS AND DRAGONS AND THAT'S
WHY I'M NOT SURE --
>> I KEEP POINTING OUT IF THEY
GET TO TAIWAN'S PER CAPITA GDP
THEY'RE 1.5 TIMES THE SIZE OF
THE U.S. ECONOMY.
>> THIS IS TRUE, BUT, YOU KNOW,
MEANWHILE, THE U.S., YOU WANT TO
PLAY THIS GAME --
>> THAT'S THE OTHER PART.
>> YOU ASK, HAS A PER CAPITA
INCOME WHICH IS TEN TIMES LARGER
THAN ANY CHINESE PER CAPITA.
>> JOE JOFFE, PLEASURE TO HAVE
YOU ON.
UP NEXT, HOW SHOULD THE MODERN
MUSLIM WOMAN DRESS?
I HAVE A SURPRISING SURVEY FROM
MUSLIMS THEMSELVES.
>>> U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY JACK
LEW TOURED EUROPEAN CAPITALS
THIS WEEK CALLING ON ECONOMIES
TO DO MORE TO BOOST GROWTH.
BRINGS ME TO MY QUESTION OF THE
WEEK.
WHAT NATION JOINED THE EUROZONE
THIS MONTH, A, LITHUANIA, B,
LATVIA, C, LICK TEN STEIN, D
LUXEMBOURG.
STAY TUNED AND WE'LL TELL YOU
THE CORRECT ANSWER.
THE BOOK OF THE WEEK IS BENJAMIN
BARBER'S "IF MAYORS RULED THE
WORLD."
IF YOU LIKE CITIES YOU WILL LOVE
THIS WIDE-RANGING BOOK THAT
CAPTURES THE ENERGY, EXCITEMENT
AND IMPORTANCE OF WHAT IS GOING
ON IN THE WORLD'S GREAT URBAN
CENTERS.
NOW FOR THE LAST LOOK.
WHEN THINKING ABOUT WOMEN'S
CLOTHING AND MUSLIM COUNTRIES,
FULLY COVERED MAY BE THE PHRASE
THAT COMES TO MIND.
WELL, A FASCINATING NEW STUDY BY
THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN ASKED
RESPONDENTS IN SEVEN MUSLIM
NATIONS, WHAT STYLE OF DRESS
THEY THOUGHT WAS APPROPRIATE FOR
WOMEN TO WEAR IN PUBLIC?
THEIR ANSWERS WERE NOT ONE SIZE
FITS ALL.
THE ALL COVERING, RECOGNIZABLE
BURQA WAS NOT POPULAR IN ANY
NATION.
THE NIQAB WAS THE WINNER IN
SKAUSH AND WAS FAVORED SLIGHTLY
IN PAKISTAN.
ON THE LIBERAL SIDE OF THINGS,
ALMOST HALF THE LEBANESE
SURVEYED SAID WOMEN DON'T NEED A
HEAD COVERING AT ALL AND A THIRD
OF THE TURKS POLLED AGREED.
THE MOST POPULAR OPTION A TIGHT
FITTING WHITE HIIJAB THAT COVERS
A WOMAN'S HAIR AND EARS
COMPLETELY BUT LEAVES HER EYE,
NOSE, MOUTH AND CHEEKS FULLY
SHOWING.
THAT PARTICULAR STYLE RECEIVED
THE MOST VOTES IN TUNISIA,
EGYPT, TURKEY AND IRAQ.
THIS TREND MIGHT, THE STUDY
ASKED THE RESPONDENTS IF WOMEN
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CHOOSE
WHATEVER STYLE THEY WANT, ABOUT
50% SAID YES, IN TU NINA,
TURKEY, LEBANON AND EVEN BELIEVE
IT OR NOT SAUDI ARABIA.
GO TO CNN.COM/FAREED FOR A LINK
TO THE FULL STUDY.
THE CORRECT ANSWER TO OUR
QUESTION IS B, LATVIA.
LATVIA BECAME THE 18th NATION TO
ADOPT THE EURO ON THE CURRENCY'S
15 THSDS ANNIVERSARY THIS MONTH.
IF YOU HAVE ANY LATVIAN LATS
CONVERT THEM SOON.
THE EUROZONE ENCOMPASSES NOW 333
MILLION PEOPLE.
LATVIA ADDED 2 MILLION TO THAT
TOTAL.
THANKS TO ALL OF YOU FOR BEING
PART OF MY PROGRAM THIS WEEK.
I WILL SEE YOU NEXT WEEK.