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>>> L.S./INTRO/BULLETS
(A.F.) TIME FOR THE
MARKETS WITH
LEIGHTON...
AND SOME ANALYSIS
OF THE ACREAGE
PROJECTIONS.
(L.S.) AS D-T-NS
HEADLINE PUT IT, U-S-
D-A STUNS MARKETS...,
PARTICULARLY CORN.
>>>TAKE GRAPHICS
ALSO AHEAD, THAT
SAME REPORT MAY
BRING ABOUT A SHIFT IN
PERCEPTION AS FAR AS
THE WHEAT MARKET....
FOR LIVESTOCK
PRODUCERS THE
PROJECTIONS MAY TAKE
SOME OF THE
VOLATILITY OUT OF
FEED PRICES...
AS THE FEEDER CATTLE
MARKET DEALS WITH
SOME SHARP LOSSES AT
MID-WEEK...
>>> L.S./MKT. INTVW.
THE CORN MARKET IS
DESCRIBED AS MOVING
INTO A HOLDING
PATTERN FOLLOWING
THE MARCH 31ST
PROSPECTIVE
PLANTINGS REPORT.
MEANWHILE THERE
WASNT MUCH SHOCK
TO THE SOYBEAN
FIGURES.
BUT MORE COTTON IS
PROJECTED TO BE
PLANTED AS FARMERS
FEEL LESS CONFIDENT
ABOUT RETURNS FROM
CORN AND SOYBEANS.
EXTENSION ECONOMIST
BRIAN WILLIAMS
TOUCHES ON THE
IMPLICATIONS FOR ALL
THESE CROPS IN THIS
DISCUSSION.
>>>TAKE VIDEO/SOT
>> LEIGHTON SPANN
REPORTER
BRIAN, LETS BEGIN WITH
WHAT WAS DEFINITELY
THE BIGGEST SURPRISE
IN THIS PLANTING
INTENTIONS REPORT ?
>> BRIAN WILLIAMS,
PH.D.
EXTENSION AG
ECONOMIST
MISSISSIPPI STATE
UNIVERSITY
YEAH, CORN WAS
DEFINITELY A BIG
SURPRISE IN TERMS OF
ACREAGE.
BASED ON THE SURVEYS
THE U-S-D-A SENT OUT
IN LATE FEBRUARY-
EARLY MARCH, THEYRE
ESTIMATING ABOUT 93-
POINT-6 MILLION ACRES
OF CORN TO BE
PLANTED THIS SUMMER.
THATS A 6-PERCENT
INCREASE FROM LAST
YEAR, AND WAS WAY
HIGHER THAN WHAT
ANYBODY EXPECTED.
HERE IN MISSISSIPPI WE
WERE EXPECTING
ABOUT 800-THOUSAND
ACRES, WHICH WOULD
BE A 57-PERCENT
INCREASE COMPARED
TO THE 510-THOUSAND
WE HAD LAST YEAR.
>> LEIGHTON SPANN
REPORTER
WELL, SO FAR, WHAT
HAS THE MARKET
REACTION BEEN, AND
WHAT DOES IT LOOK
LIKE THE MARKETS MAY
DO LONGER-TERM AS A
RESULT OF THESE
NUMBERS ?
>> BRIAN WILLIAMS,
PH.D.
EXTENSION AG
ECONOMIST
MISSISSIPPI STATE
UNIVERSITY
WELL THE DAY THE
REPORT CAME OUT THE
MARKETS WERE DOWN
ABOUT 16-CENTS.
SINCE THEN THEYVE
KIND OF LEVELED OFF,
THEY BOUNCED BACK A
LITTLE BIT.
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE
MAY KIND OF ENTER
THAT HOLDING PATTERN
AGAIN.
IT SEEMS THEYVE KIND
OF ADJUSTED TO THE
REPORT.
>> LEIGHTON SPANN
REPORTER
LETS SHIFT OVER TO
SOYBEANS NOW. WHAT
DID THE NUMBERS TELL
US AS FAR AS
NATIONWIDE AND ALSO
MISSISSIPPI ?
>> BRIAN WILLIAMS,
PH.D.
EXTENSION AG
ECONOMIST
MISSISSIPPI STATE
UNIVERSITY
WELL SOYBEANS
WERENT NEAR AS BIG
OF A SURPRISE. THEY
WERE PRETTY CLOSE TO
WHAT WE WERE
EXPECTING.
UH, THEY CAME OUT
WITH 82-POINT-2-3-6
MILLION ACRES OF
SOYBEANS. THATS
DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY
FROM A YEAR AGO. AND
THEN HERE IN
MISSISSIPPI WERE
EXPECTED TO HAVE
ABOUT 2 MILLION ACRES
WHICH IS DOWN FROM
ABOUT 2-POINT-3
MILLION WE HAD LAST
YEAR.
>> LEIGHTON SPANN
REPORTER
SO ONE MIGHT GUESS
PRICES WENT UP ON
THIS NEWS ? WHAT IN
FACT HAS HAPPENED?
>> BRIAN WILLIAMS,
PH.D.
EXTENSION AG
ECONOMIST
MISSISSIPPI STATE
UNIVERSITY
THEY WENT UP
SLIGHTLY BUT THERE
REALLY WASNT TOO
MUCH OF A REACTION IN
THE SOYBEANS, MAINLY
BECAUSE IT WAS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE
WERE EXPECTING.
>> LEIGHTON SPANN
REPORTER
JUST NOT THE SURPRISE
THAT CORN OBVIOUSLY
WAS TO ALL THE
ANALYSTS.
(EXACTLY)...
ALL RIGHT, WHAT ABOUT
COTTON?
I UNDERSTAND A BIG
INCREASE FOR
MISSISSIPPI AND ALSO
AN INCREASE
NATIONWIDE ?
>> BRIAN WILLIAMS,
PH.D.
EXTENSION AG
ECONOMIST
MISSISSIPPI STATE
UNIVERSITY
YEAH, ON COTTON WE
HAD A 41-PERCENT
INCREASE IN ACREAGE
IN THE STATE OF
MISSISSIPPI.
ABOUT 450-THOUSAND
ACRES. AND THEN
NATIONWIDE WE HAD
ABOUT AN 11-PERCENT
INCREASE, SITTING AT
ABOUT 9 AND A HALF
MILLION ACRES.
>>>LEIGHTON SPANN
REPORTER
HOW WOULD YOU
EXPLAIN THAT, BECAUSE
PRICES HAVENT
EXACTLY BEEN
INCENTIVE FOR
FARMERS, SO TO SPEAK
?
>>>BRIAN WILLIAMS,
PH.D.
EXTENSION AG
ECONOMIST
MISSISSIPPI STATE
UNIVERSITY
RIGHT.
AND PRICES HAVE BEEN
LOWER,
COMPARATIVELY
ACROSS THE BOARD.
BUT WITH COTTON
WHAT WERE LOOKING
AT IS PRICE RATIOS.
AND THE COTTON TO
CORN PRICE RATIO AND
THE COTTON TO
SOYBEAN PRICE RATIO
WERE A LOT MORE
FAVORABLE THAN THEY
WERE A YEAR AGO,
PARTICULARLY IN
DECEMBER AND
JANUARY, WHEN THE
PRODUCERS WERE
MAKING THOSE
DECISIONS.
>>> L.S./WHEAT
ANALYSIS
PROJECTED WINTER
WHEAT ACREAGE IS
DOWN 8-PERCENT IN
THE U.S. COMPARED TO
2015, AND DOWN 40-
PERCENT IN MISSISSIPPI.
ANALYST NAOMI BLOHM
THINKS THESE AND
OTHER WHEAT FIGURES
PUT THIS MARKET IN A
MUCH LESS NEGATIVE
LIGHT AS FAR AS THE
LONG TERM.
>>>TAKE VIDEO/SOT
>> NAOMI BLOHM
STEWART-PETERSON
GROUP
GLOBAL ENDING
STOCKS ARE STILL VERY
LARGE AND THAT IS
GOING TO BE MORE OF
THE DOMINATING
FACTOR FOR THE
MARKET RIGHT NOW.
BUT THE FACT THAT
NOW THE PERCEPTION
IS SHIFTING THAT
THERE'S GOING TO BE
JUST A LITTLE BIT LESS
SUPPLIES IN THE UNITED
STATES.
WHAT IF OTHER
NATIONS AROUND THE
WORLD START TO
FOLLOW SUIT AND DO
JUST THOSE LITTLE
TIDBITS OF LESS
PRODUCTION?
IT'S PUTTING THE
BRAKES ON THE
NEGATIVITY AND SO
FROM THAT STANDPOINT
I WOULD THINK IF YOU
TAKE IT MAYBE A YEAR,
A YEAR AND A HALF OUT
WE START TO SEE
MAYBE A LONGER-TERM
ROUNDING BOTTOM ON
THE CHARTS, NOTHING
THAT IS GOING TO MAKE
THE MARKET JUST
RALLY FROM HERE, BUT I
THINK THE NEGATIVE IS
IN.
>>> L.S./TRIVIA
QUESTION
LETS CHECK-OUT OUR
TRIVIA QUIZ FOR THIS
WEEK.
ITS ABOUT THE DAIRY
SECTOR.
>>>TAKE GRAPHICS
HOW MUCH MORE MILK
DOES THE AVERAGE
DAIRY COW PRODUCE
NOW COMPARED TO
20O6, TEN YEARS AGO ?
IS THE ANSWER...
4 PERCENT ?
OR 10 PERCENT MORE ?
OR 14 PERCENT ?
OR 20 PERCENT MORE ?
STAY WITH US FOR THE
ANSWER...
>>> L.S./FEED PRICES
MOVING INTO THE
LIVESTOCK MARKETS
NOW, A POSITIVE SPIN-
OFF IS EXPECTED FOR
THIS SECTOR OUT OF
THE PROSPECTIVE
PLANTINGS REPORT.
THE UNIVERSITY OF
MISSOURIS SCOTT
BROWN SAYS THE
PROJECTIONS COULD
HELP TAKE SOME OF
THE VOLATILITY OUT OF
FEED PRICES FOR
LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS.
BROWN SAYS CORN
ENDING STOCKS ARE
ONLY GOING TO GROW.
AND THAT HE SAYS IS
GOOD NEWS IF YOURE A
CATTLE, HOG OR
POULTRY PRODUCER
AND NEED TO BUY FEED.
>>> L.S./FEEDER CATTLE
SPEAKING OF CATTLE,
THERE ARE A LOT OF
FEEDERS OUT THERE.
AND THIS SECTOR OF
THE CATTLE MARKET
SAW A BIG BREAK THE
LAST PART OF THE
MONTH OF MARCH.
PLACEMENT FIGURES
HAVE BEEN BIG
ACCORDING TO ANALYST
DON ROOSE, WITH A LOT
OF FEEDERS OUTSIDE
THE FEEDLOT COMING
OFF OF WHEAT PASTURE
RIGHT NOW.
>>>TAKE VT/VIDEO
>> DON ROOSE
U.S. COMMODITIES, INC.
I THINK WHERE WE'RE
AT IN THE FEEDER
CATTLE IS WE THINK IT'S
ONE THAT PROBABLY IS
THE BEST OF THE
WORST IN THE CATTLE,
IT PROBABLY HAS SOME
SUPPORT.
BUT I WOULD SAY
ANOTHER $3 TO $5
DOWN WE PROBABLY
SEE SOME BUYING
INTEREST BUT THE
UPSIDE RALLIES JUST AS
THE CASH CATTLE IN
THE FUTURES WE THINK
ARE PROBABLY MORE
RISK MANAGEMENT
OPPORTUNITIES THAN
ANYTHING ELSE,
BECAUSE REMEMBER
NOVEMBER FEEDERS
TOOK A SHOT DOWN
UNDER $140.
>>>L.S./FARMER INDEX
IF A NEW SURVEY BY D-
T-N AND PROGRESSIVE
FARMER IS ANY
INDICATION, MORALE IS
SINKING RIGHT NOW IN
THE AGRICULTURE
SECTOR.
>>>TAKE GRAPHICS
500 CROP AND
LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS
FILLED OUT THE
CONFIDENCE INDEX THE
FIRST TEN DAYS OF
MARCH.
THE OVERALL INDEX
CAME OUT TO BE 91-
AND-A-HALF, INDICATING
AN INCREASING DEGREE
OF PESSIMISM
ACCORDING TO
STATISTICIANS.
AN INDEX OF 100 IS
NEUTRAL, WHILE
ANYTHING BELOW
MEANS INCREASING
PESSIMISM.
D-T-N SAYS THE
BOTTOM LINE OF THE
LATEST CONFIDENCE
INDEX IS THAT FARMERS
SEE LITTLE HOPE TO
IMPROVE THEIR
INCOMES THIS YEAR.
>>>TAKE OUT GRAPHICS
>>> L.S./TRIVIA ANSWER
BACK TO THE TRIVIA
QUIZ TO WRAP THINGS
UP FOR THIS WEEK....
C IS THE ANSWER.
THE AVERAGE DAIRY
COW PRODUCES 14-
PERCENT MORE MILK
TODAY THAN TEN YEARS
AGO, AS DAIRY FARMS
HAVE BECOME MORE
EFFICIENT.
>>> FORGE DAY
>> T METAL