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Douglas Goldstein: Martin Ford is a high- tech hero based on Silicon Valley. He is also
the author of a new book called Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless
Future. So with the rise of the robots, we’d be
looking forward to a net positive increase in jobs in the future or is it going to go
just the opposite? Martin Ford: I think it will be the opposite,
I don’t think that robots and technology in general obviously we’re not talking just
about physical robots about smart software and so forth. I think that collectively in
the long run meaning over the next decade or two is very likely to destroy more jobs
than it will create and that’s especially true for what we think of as typical workers
who tend to do more average, repetitive routine type of work.
Douglas Goldstein: Obviously in the past we’ve seen major changes in technology starting
with the industrial revolution but since then there’ve been many other changes in the
world from computers and cell phones to fax machines and outsourcing. In those cases there
was a temporary loss of jobs but society adapted, why do you think this is different?
Martin Ford: As you say there is a lot of skepticism out there I think rightfully because
you know historically this has not happened, you know the job market has always adapted
but I do think we are at a point now where the technology is finally there and the most
important thing that’s happening is that the machines in a limited sense at least are
beginning to think, they are talking on cognitive tasks, it’s not just muscle power, it’s
now brain power and it’s that combined with the fact that it’s so ubiquitous, I mean
information technology is truly a general purpose technology, it’s something that
scales across the entire economy. So you know it’s not just impacting one industry and
the classic example is agriculture. Agriculture transformed, millions of jobs were lost but
that was just one industry. Now we’ve got a technology that’s going to just impact
everywhere, kind of all at one simultaneously and it’s beginning to take on the cognitive
type task that previously have been something that only human beings could do, when you
put that together you’d get something that I think is really transformative.
Douglas Goldstein: When you are referring to the brain power of the robots or the computers
or the software, where are we today because Siri on my iPhone is cool but can hardly really
do much more than make a phone call? Martin Ford: Machines have the ability to
do things that are relatively routine, repetitive and predictable with just extraordinary proficiency.
No one is arguing that this is about true artificial intelligence or machines that are
going to wake up and start thinking and acting like people, that may happen someday but certainly
that’s decades away but there is no doubt whatsoever that machines are getting really
good at the more routine stuff and the key insight, the thing to keep in mind is that
most people also spend a lot of their time doing routine, repetitive things so as a result
it means a lot of jobs or big fractions of jobs are really going to be impacted over
the next couple of decades. Douglas Goldstein: You are referring to the
automated sort of jobs, again it looks like factory work and agriculture has already been
kind of changed dramatically. What sort of jobs are we looking at losing?
Martin Ford: It’s really across the board and it’s not just about factory work anymore.
One of the most important things that’s happening is that smart algorithms, smart
software are really climbing the skills ladder and they are beginning to impact jobs taken
by people with university degrees. Examples are many areas of law for example document
review where lawyers have to go do and look at the documents and figure out if they are
relevant to court cases, a lot of that has now been automated. Some aspects of journalism
are being automated. There are now sophisticated systems that are able to tap into a data stream
and then take that data and transform it into a pretty compelling new story and right now
it’s more formulaic areas, business reporting, sports reporting and so forth but it’s getting
better and better and I don’t think any doubt whatsoever that it’s eventually going
to have an impact. So that’s the key thing to keep in mind. The question is, is the job
on some level routine and predictable? It doesn’t matter so much whether it’s a
low skill job or a high skill job or what industry it’s in, it’s really an across
the board phenomenon. Douglas Goldstein: I want to dive in on this
a little more because in the past what we’ve seen is that when technology has changed,
people have actually improved the level of the job that they’ve got. In other words
instead of having to be a lawyer as you described looking up cases which is pretty basic and
boring, now perhaps they get to do more analysis, they get to work more with the clients. Aren’t
there are possibilities that if we can give the wrote work to the robots then we as people
generally will have the opportunity to educate ourselves and of higher level jobs?
Martin Ford: That’s certainly true for some people. Some people will follow that path
ad they will benefit greatly from this and they will be able to find higher level you
know things to do but my guess is that we are talking about a fairly elite group of
our workforce. You know in the United States just to give an example we’ve got a workforce
of 140 million people. What are those people doing? I’ll tell you what, they’re not
all doing high level, cognitive, blue sky creative type of thinking, most of them are
doing relatively routine things, they are driving vehicles, they are working in offices
doing relatively routine things. They are working in retail stores, they are working
in food service, you know those are the jobs that really provide employment for the vast
majority of people in your society and it’s pretty clear that huge numbers of those jobs
are going to be impacted over the next couple of decades. Now some people will successfully
retrain for higher level things but I don’t think that everyone will, I think that we
are ultimately going to have to figure out a solution for the people that are left behind
by this. Douglas Goldstein: What do you think will
be happening in terms of the investment world in the financial markets will that all be
taken over by robots as well? Martin Ford: There certainly is an impact
and I’m sure you’ve heard of roboadvisors which are becoming a really important force
in terms of investment advising and management. Wall Street trading of course is already mostly
algorithmic. Most of the trades are now done by machines so I think you will see that continue.
So it’s going to be a critical impact in the investment world.
Douglas Goldstein: What other changes in the economy do you expect we would see as technology
improves? Martin Ford: You know the thing that I worry
the most about is that all of these can have an impact on consumer spending and we have
a market economy and that economy is dependent on consumers who have sufficient purchasing
power to really buy the stuff that’s being produced and if we don’t have that, then
I think we risk kind of a deflationary downward spiral at some point. I mean if you look around
the world, there are lots of talk of deflation, you hear people like Larry Summers talking
about secular stagnation. This is all kind of tied to the idea that there really isn’t
enough demand out there to really drive the economy and that’s something that could
get worse if we started losing jobs or if wages get driven down by technology to the
point where you know the bulk of people out there just don’t have enough discretionary
income to really be vibrant consumers and we get into a scenario where we’re beginning
to worry about that downwards spiral. Douglas Goldstein: Perhaps they wouldn’t
need to have as much money because the technology would just make the cost of stuff cheaper.
Martin Ford: Yes, that’s part of it and that you can think of it in that way but you
know what that’s not the way the economy has worked in the past. We’ve always had
an inflation area economy. If you took someone from say the year 1900 and put them in a time
machine and brought them forward they’d be shocked at the prices in the grocery store.
However, we are much better off than we were in 1900 but the reason is that our incomes
are much higher relative to the price of things or incomes have actually increased more than
consumer prices and that’s what has made us better off. So if we are going to get into
a scenario where it’s sort of the opposite where both incomes and prices are falling,
that’s a deflation area scenario which really isn’t a very positive thing at all.
Douglas Goldstein: What’s your timeframe for these changes?
Martin Ford: I tend to think in terms of 10 to 20 years when this will have a really big
impact but that’s really just a guess and I’ll tell you that I’ve talked to some
people who are deeply involved in the technology, you know people doing research into AI and
robotics and some of them are much more aggressive than that, some of them think maybe the disruption
is going between five to 10 years. So I guess we don’t know exactly when it’s going
to hit because we are subject to an acceleration, things are moving faster and faster and so
it could happen before we’re really ready for it at all.
Douglas Goldstein: What are the companies that are spearheading this development?
Martin Ford: Well you know the company that is really at the center of this is Google
and the thing is that it’s really all of the high tech companies, it’s Google, it’s
Amazon, it’s Microsoft, it’s Facebook and the thing is that one of the things driving
this is just an incredible competitive dynamic between those companies. There’s a talent
war going on where they are all trying to hire the very best people in areas like artificial
intelligence and machine learning and of course these companies just have incredible resources
and this is kind of unprecedented. You’ve never seen artificial intelligence just right
in nexus of competition between a huge, influential deep pocketed companies before and that’s
one of the things that I think is really going to drive just a surprising amount of progress
in this area. Douglas Goldstein: I guess the progress is
something we really have to understand and I understand basing your description that
the change in technology could represent a huge loss of jobs and society would be worse
of but I guess there are the optimists, I count myself amongst them that say ultimately
these changes will create and adapt an adaptation society where people will just figure out
something to do but you know, naming that is very tricky.
Martin Ford: I don’t really disagree with that optimistic take but I think it’s going
to be a choice that we are going to face. I’m skeptical that it can happen automatically.
A lot of people will just say well it will work out somehow but if you really look at
the incentives that are built into capitalism and into the market economy it’s really
hard to see how it works out automatically. I mean the incentive for businesses is going
to be always to become more efficient to get rid of work if they can. So I think we can
have a very optimistic outplay, you can imagine a future when no one has to do a terrible
or dangerous job and everyone is made better off by this but it’s going to require I
think a deliberate adaptation to it, it’s going to require a political and economic
response in order to make sure that we have that optimistic outcome.
Douglas Goldstein: How can people follow you and follow your work?
Martin Ford: I’m on Twitter and my handle is @MFordFuture and usually I try to tweet
every day some interesting articles and things and that Twitter account also got a link to
my blog and to information about my book and so forth so that’s probably the best place
to find me.