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So, this is our fourth lecture on population of India. And this we will after this lecture,
we will be completing half of this course out of forty courses like forty lectures,
we will be completing twenty lectures today, so this is a special day.
I have not made many slides for today’s lecture, because this is the fourth lecture
and last lecture on population of India. So, I thought that it will be better if we make
it more interactive. So, I would like to answer your questions maybe to answer your questions,
sometime I may not have the requisite data right now. But at least qualitatively I can
answer your question; two things on which I will focus in slides today are first greater
uncertainties, about the future and second migration.
Migration is something which I have not discussed so far all the time, I was talking about size
growth rate fertility and mortality. There is a need to talk about migration also; future
of India’s population perhaps will depend, more on migration than on fertility and mortality
processes. So, with that thing in mind, let me go to the next slide Projections. The meaning
of projection is assessment of the future based on certain assumptions.
There are several terms, using this contact Projections, Predictions, forecast. So, projections
are assessment based on any kind of assumption. So, Projections are associated with assumptions.
So, you say that assuming this I project, assuming that the birth rate of India will
remain constant I project that population of India will be this. You can make one projection
or you can make several projections, depending on different assumptions. The difference between
projection and prediction would be that, when you say that something is more likely to happen
or projections, based on those assumptions which are more likely. Like you can make any
assumption, you can say that mortality will not change and you can calculate Projections.
You can assume that death rate will be reduced by half and you can make projections. But
both the things constancy of death rate or having a death rate, are not equally likely.
You can say that this assumption is more likely and therefore, a certain set of Projection
or Projections is more likely to happen. That becomes your prediction. And among predictions
also, when you place particular confidence in one particular series of Projection then,
they become forecast. So, Projections are based on assumptions and those assumptions,
which are more likely to come to produce predictions. Now, it is almost impossible to predict the
future population with great accuracy. Our projections have never come true. We have
been projecting Indias population right from the beginning. In some context of our reading,
the first five year plan last week. And in the first five year plan the projection was
that several times projections have been made by experts.
Planning commission and different government departments state departments and they have
never come true. Registrar general India makes Projections, Projections never come true.
Because it is not possible for us, to predict the future course of events, very accurately.
Our assessment of what rate family planning practices, will improve or death rate will
decline or international migration will go up or down or will remain same. There are
lots of uncertainties about them. Population Projections require exact understanding of
the present day processes. And an intelligent understanding of future possibilities. In
the past you are airing on both the accounts in the past we did not have exact understanding
of contemporary processes. And we also, made mistakes regarding assuming
Indias future, with respect to fertility family planning international migration etcetera.
Could somebody like in africa where, H I V affects nearly twenty percent in some countries,
could someone twenty years back predict. That after twenty years in africa of all the adults
twenty percent would be H I V positive no one can. So, how can we say today, whether
there will be no tsunami in next ten year next twenty years, no earthquake no droughts
no abnormal no epidemics no war. But is still assuming that things, will remain
normal for planning and policy making purposes, we do need Projections. United Nations estimates
show that by the year. And so, what the so we are not sure we cannot be sure what will
happen in the future. Still for planning purposes assuming that, the present trends are a reasonable
guide to what is going to happen in the future. United nation estimates, show they have estimated
population of all countries of the world. And projected them up to, two thousand fifty.
In two thousand fifty India will be the most populous country of the world. And it is population
will be larger than that of china. And this will affect international relations as well
as Indias place in globalization. India would be demographically speaking the largest country
of the world in two thousand fifty. But it is a Projection we can never be sure. How
can we say that there will be no epidemic from now, between two thousand ten and two
thousand fifty? How can we say that birth rate will not, increase or decrease beyond
the assumptions, made by the United Nations.
There are two quotes; this is from R H chosen from an institute of development study Sussex.
In nineteen seventy eight he wrote a book India population, economy and society this
quote is from there. That people who mark dire predictions about the ecological future.
Do so, out of genuine concern others seem to be doing no more than cashing in on the
publics. Seemingly inexhaustible appetite for, nightmares Malthus. Whom we called doomsday
philosopher was perhaps one who cashed on the publics inexhaustible, appetite for nightmares.
By saying that population will grow in geometric fashion food can utmost grow in arithmetic
progression. And therefore, there will be positive checks on population.
There are opposing no problem or the market will adjust schools whose, optimism cannot
be shared either. It is more honest to admit that we do not know what the future holds.
That it will be good or bad depending on some things, that are within human control and
others that are not. There are things that are within human control like population policy
is in within human control, within the control of a state to declare incentives for sterilization.
It is within the control of government to provide incentive for taking woman to health
facility for delivery. We are doing this [FL] or it is in our hands to provide vaccination
to almost all children theoretically, we can assume we can provide vaccination facilities,
to all. But there are many things, which are not within
our control. Nowadays like spread of dengue or swine flu this is not completely in our
control. And we do not know what alarming proportions; some such viruses can take in
the future. The business of the academic observer is to point to the areas where, action is
most needed. That is why we need Projection not because; we want to say that by using
some mathematical magic we can know that future. But because by making Projections we can,
identify areas of action. If you take action then these are the consequences. So, projections
are needed for working out the consequences, of different strategies of development. And
this is one of our self-confessed aims, to create a climate of opinion for balanced judgment
about future development. I found this paragraph quite interesting, on Projections so, I thought
that we share it with you.
This is another quotation from Timdyson. Timdyson is from London school of economics, on future
population he has also worked extensively on Indias population. He has an interesting
thing to say to quote; it seems extremely unlikely that the countrys population will
not exceed 1.5 billion. At some time in the coming decades. Today we are around 1.2 million
it seems, extremely unlikely that the countrys population will not exceed 1.5 billion. Means
we can almost be sure, that population of India sometimes would be more than 1.5 billion.
Means we can almost be sure that, population of India sometime would be more than 1.5 billion
indeed a figure of about 1.6 billion seems fairly likely.
And while it is unlikely, even a figure approaching 1.7 billion cannot be ruled out. In nineteen
seventy one sorry in nineteen seventy five. When doctor karansingh the then health minister
was drafting a statement of the first population policy. At that time he said that population
of India has these, alarming proportion. And he could just not imagine that, people were
saying that if you do not take action right now, then the population of India can reach
one billion. And reaching one billion was something unimaginable to handle. It handling
one billion people in India was something, unimaginable from the standard of those days.
But we have already crossed one billion. So, who knows even a figure approaching one point
seven billion cannot be ruled out personally. I feel that a figure just short of one point
six billion is most probable. And in this context it is worth noting, that Natarajan
and jayachandrans Projections. Natarajan was associated with registrars general office
which also, extend to the year 2051 yield a figure of 1.646 billion. Moreover the latest
UN medium variant united nations make certain Projections. And call them high medium low
that high means this is the upper limit of Projections; population will not cross those
numbers on the higher side. Low means, that the population will be at
least this much, then there is medium variant the best guess. So, according to the United
Nations medium variant mean the best guess Projection puts. The total population of India
at 1.572 billion in 2050, so roughly 1.6. The corresponding population figure for China
then is only 1.46. So, roughly speaking in 2050 India will be the first country of the
world in terms of population. And it is population can be 1.6 China will be next. And Chinas
population maybe 1.5 or slightly less. Right now, China has less numbers, but sorry right
now Chinas population size is more. Because their, fertility has gone below the replacement
level. So, growth potential of Chinas population is less yes.
Sir, do they want to say that our population will reach a saturation point and will not
increase beyond that. Yes the idea is to say something like that.
That we will continue to grow behind this growth our growth is a result of fertility
and mortality. So, mortality would have declined to perhaps the lowest possible level. Once
we reached the death rate of say five it will be almost impossible to reduce it further.
Fertility can be reduced further and we do not know, to what low level it can go like
in Europe it has gone to below replacement level. Maybe who knows in India also, sometime
in the future twenty years from now thirty years from now? Our total fertility rate goes
down to one point five it is unlikely, but it can happen. The main thing is that as a
result of all these things, at some point population of India will saturate.
What is that point of saturation? So, these experts of United Nations, medium variant
projection show.
That perhaps that saturation point will reach at one point six or may be one point seven
as cassen says may be one point seven. So, somewhere around one point six one point seven,
the population of India will stop growing. So, this is the future population now, Migration
we have not talked about Migration at all let me spend some time, on Migration. Research
on Migration is much less than research on fertility and mortality. Ideally speaking
as, you have vital registration system. For fertility and mortality birth rate and death
rate and S R S also, for them now. You must have population registers in which movement
of people from one place to another within the country.
From one district to another one city to another, is constantly recorded. Developed countries,
have that provision they maintain population registers. And any movement of people from
one place to another place within the country is recorded, we do not have such a system.
You can freely move from one part of the country to another. And you do not have to report
any where, we do not have that population register systems. So, the major and major
source of migration in India is census. Sometime national sample survey has also collected
data on Migration, but major source of data on all India basis is census population census
of India. In population census of India there are there
are some questions which pertain to Migration directly one is place of birth. So, for all
individuals in all individual slips we have a question on place of birth. And based on
that we know where, all these people one billion people of India recorded in two thousand one
census were born. And for birth we ask the state district, and urban and rural areas.
So, we know place of birth. We also have a question on place of last residence means,
were you living somewhere else earlier was is that place of last residence. And we have
a question on duration of residence, how long have you been living at this place where you
are enumerated. And reason or cause of Migration, among them
place of birth has been used as a place for assessment, or migration trend more frequently.
There are some problems with place of birth data, but still. And surprisingly, the pattern
of Migration emerges from place of birth is very similar to what emerges, from place of
last residence. So, for all practical purposes, both these questions give us a good idea of
what is happening to Migration. Based on the birth data you can classify the whole population
of the country into two categories. Migrants and non Migrants, all those people for whom
the place of birth is same as place of enumeration, are non Migrants? At the time of census if
you are enumerated in Kanpur. And you are you are born in Kanpur then you are a non
Migrant. And if your place of birth is different from
place of enumeration then you are a Migrant. There are problems, like a it cannot take
care of return Migrants suppose, you are born in Kanpur. But for education or for the job
you have gone to Kerala and now, you have come back or in old age you have come back.
So, your place of enumeration and place of birth both place of enumeration today, and
place of birth are Kanpur. But you are actually not a non Migrant in between for education
or for job you went to Kerala. So, that is a defect in place of birth data. But you have
some merits some demerits, in all questions dealing with Migrations.
I had brought some data from the 2001 census, which classifies population into Migrants
into non migrants based on place of birth data. Now, on the basis of place of birth
you can find out what is the total number of Migrants. You can find out regarding international
Migration how many people have come to India from outside. Those who are living in India
and have come from somewhere, else you know information about them. But you cannot know
how many Indians have left India. You can know before, you are only those who are enumerating
today, those who are very much present in India. But if there are, some people who left
India for any other country who do not have information, about them from Indian census.
Censuses of those countries where they have gone will have information about them. So,
your census will tell how many U S citizens are of Indian origin. And if we can compile
all those data from all major countries, which are destinations of Indian Migrate we can
know a tentative estimate. Now, India as a whole the figure show international Migration
we cannot know completely number of in Migrants out in migrants. We can emigrants we can know,
but immigrants we cannot know internal migration within the country. This can also be divided
into four parts intra-district, people moving within the district from one village to another
village or village to town in the same district, or intra-district one district to another
district in the same state. Then there are intra-state Migrants who move
from one state to another. And from abroad international normally, we will assume that
interstate Migrants have travelled longer distances than district Migrants. And intra
districts Migrants have travelled longer distances than intra district Migrants, though this
is not true for all the Migrants. Sometimes, somebody moves from one village of his state
to another village of the neighboring state, which may be situated only say ten kilometers.
And in a state like U P somebody moves, within the state and moves say more than two hundred
three hundred kilometers. So, this is not true for all the Migrants, but overall one
can say considering all Migrants that intra state Migrants, have travelled the longest
distance intra district. The shortest distance and intra district are in between.
And according to two thousand one census 181.7 million people have travelled intra district,
76.8 inter district 42.3. Three inter-state which sort of proves a law of Migration about
which I mentioned when I was talking about Migration model. That most, Migrants have
a tendency to move shorter distances. So, intra district is maximum 181.7 inter district
in between 76.8 million and intra district 42.3. There are 6.1 million people means,
sixty one lakh people who are enumerated in India. But whose place of birth is in some
other country actually, this number is constantly declining over the years over censuses this
number is declining. Majority of these Migrants were those who came to India at the time of
partition. From todays, Pakistan or Bangladesh some from
Burma and as time is passing people have already, become old and they have started dying. Every
census gives us a declining number of number of immigrants, on the basis of birth of place
birth place data in census. Now, some of these people move from rural to rural to rural areas
and some rural to urban. This kind of classification is important for sociologists because, you
want to know what are basically the causes of Migration. And sociologists are particularly
interested.
In this rural to urban Migration when they say that Migration and economic, development
or Migration and urbanization are correlated. That Migration is caused by pull factors in
urban areas; urban areas or industries are developed places. Provide more job opportunities
better raise rates better employment better salary and perks and other benefits, better
education facilities health facilities. And therefore, rural people are moving or they
want to move towards urban areas. And where ever they can afford to find a job or meet
the cost of Migration or they have some acquaintance, in urban areas place of destination. Through
whom they can fit in the new urban market they will move. Now, in case of Indian for
the time being rural to rural Migration consists of majority of Migrant 53.3.
Million people move rural to rural areas. Rural to urban is only 20.5 million urban
to rural is 6.2 million and urban to urban is 14.3. By combining these categories, I
can say that 59.5 people have rural destination. They may have moved from rural areas or they
may have moved from urban areas. There are some people 6.2 million who are moving from
urban areas to rural areas. In total 59.5 million people have rural destination. They
have gone to some rural place either from rural place itself or from urban place 34.8
million people have migrated towards urban areas 73.8 percent people have migrated from
rural areas. And twenty point five percent have migrated from urban areas.
Since our percentage urban in nineteen seventy one no sorry our percentage urban in 2001
was around twenty four percent I suppose. So, if twenty percent people have migrated
from urban areas, and seventy three percent from rural areas. Then roughly speaking you
can say that both urban and rural populations have become migratory there is some difference.
Perhaps rural populations are more migratory than urban population, but,
both rural and urban areas are becoming migratory. Sir what could be the reason for an urban
and rural Migration? Urban to rural Migration you see this Migration
in India these figures can normally when we talk of Migration we think that Migration
is induced by economic reasons. But in these millions of figures there are, various kinds
of Migration. And a majority of them are women who are become Migrant because, they move
to in-laws place we practice we have patrifocal society. So, after marriage they move to their
husbands place. That means, there are many women who have migrated from small towns to
rural by areas by definition are rural to those rural areas.
Because of marriage, then sometime some urban people are moving to rural areas. Because
in those rural areas developmental activities or infrastructural activity road construction,
some new industries small scale big scale industry some, new industrial town ship is
coming. Or there are, some people who work in urban areas, but they maintain relationship
with their native village. And after retirement they move to their native place. So, there
are various reasons why some people migrate from urban to rural areas.
Rural to rural I think fifty three point five percent usually we have seen that, there is
a relationship between Migration and employment of economic development.
Rural to rural is a fifty three point three millions yes.
Usually we have seen a between Migration and employing or migration and economic, but here
the reason why? Actually, what is happening is that in our
country there is widespread rural poverty. According to planning commission estimate
roughly, twenty seven percent population of India is poor twenty percent in rural area.
As in similar percent is slightly less in urban area. And this percentage of poor people
is not equally distributed in all geographical regions. There are more poor people, of semi
arid zones of say Rajasthan in tribal areas of Jharkhand, and Orissa, Madhya Pradesh.
And although schedule tribes have possession of somewhat have higher quantity of land.
But the quality of land or the productivity of land is very poor. They have to Migrate
in search of employment, not all of them can find employment in industries insurant Mumbai
or in Delhi They Migrate to rural areas in other states
wherever, seasonal employment can be found. So, there are many people who move from rural
to rural areas. Because there is no agricultural world there is no village world in their,
own village. And for at least certain number of months during crop cutting season or harvesting
season they have to move to some other rural area. So, when census is conducted say in
the month of February or March, this much number of people in rural areas with a separate
place of birth is found. In some other rural area is found it is mostly seasonal, rural
to rural is mostly seasonal without disconnecting themselves, from their native place.
For certain number of months in a year seasonal we call it seasonal for certain number of
months in a year crop cutting or harvest is. There are lot of such people who go from eastern
U P to Punjab or Haryana. There are people who go to Jammu and Kashmir. There is lot
of such Migration rural to rural Migration within a state. So, if condition in neighboring
states is better than, they will go there. Now, internal Migration is likely to become
a burning issue in the future, mortality has declined and it will decline further may be
by a few points. Fertility is decline is also certain, it is a different matter what is
the rate at which fertility will decline in the future. How early we can reach the replacement
rate, but the fertility is also declining. The most uncertain element of population dynamics
is migration gradually population will stabilize nobody doubting that population that population
will not stabilize. But migration will become a major issue. Indian population immobile
as per the registrar general India out of 1.02 billion people in the country. In 2001
307 million or 30% were reported as migrants is a big percentage. One in three normally
we think that Indian people are traditional sedentary they do not move. But the figure
show that 30% of Indias population consists of migrants on the basis of place of birth
data. You arrive at similar figure on the basis
of place of last residence also. One in three one in three is a migrant. During 1991-2001
this percentage increases from 27.4 to 30. That means population of India is becoming
more mobile. It is possible that in two thousand eleven census you will find a much higher
figure than 30. Some because, of Pull factors of opportunities, elsewhere and some because
of push factor. In years to come perhaps climate change fall in water table in agricultural
area rural areas and environmental power norms can become a major factor in migration to
other places. That there has been a steady increase in the, number of migrants in the
country.
Whereas in 1961 there were about 144 million migrants by place of birth, in 2001 it was
307. So, number of migrants almost double more than doubled in forty years time. With
time migration is going to become a burning issue with ethnic conflicts between migrants
and natives, already there is problem of son of soil problem everywhere. It is already
there in Mumbai M N S or there are linguistic issues there are political issues, in north
east. Even in some central states north Indian states
minister have been found saying that we will not give employment to people belonging to
other state we will first give employment. Some years ago nobody could believe that a
minister from Madhya Pradesh will make such a statement. But these statements have started
coming and once this regionalism and this nativisum starts in some states, it is bound
to spread to other places. Recently I read something about this kind of thing in Tamilnadu
that in Tamilnadu they are saying that preference in job preference will be given to Tamils.
This all depends upon employment situation; of course it depends upon employment situation.
If you need migrants or if they are in positions, which you are not ready to fill your people
are not ready to fill. And you need migrants for them; you will welcome migrants, developed
countries why do they welcome migrants of professors because, they need professors.
Similarly in many rural areas in Punjab and Haryana because, they themselves do not want
to work as agricultural laborers. So, they welcome migrants from U P and Bihar. So, this
depends on employment situation political stability, degree of inequality environmental
situation and many other unforeseen factors. Let I have some more data on migration on
the basis of place of birth question.
These are the figures, of migrants. Total population of India was 1,028 millions of
them 1,022 were born in India; 721 million were born in the place of enumeration. They
are non migrants 721 million were born at a place where they were counted, in the census
so they are non migrants. Four hundred forty one male 441 million males and 279 million
females were non migrants. Why females are less non migrants? Because, of marriage villagers
will practice caste endogamy and village exogamy. So, marriage makes almost all married women
migrants, in India due to caste endogamy and village exogamy. After marriage most except
may be in some in isolated tribal areas where, they also marry within the village otherwise
women become migrants.
So, number of non migrants means those, born in the place of enumeration is much less among
females than among males. Total migrants, is 307 male migrants are 90 usually, when
you talk of migration due to industrialization urbanization etcetera.
You have this figure in mind. Males we do not have marriage migrants, women who are
mostly marriage migrants. And born within the state of enumeration there are two types.
Born elsewhere in the district of enumeration and born in other districts of the state.
Their numbers are 181 elsewhere in the district and 76.8 million in other districts, of the
state. And then there are 42 million who are born in other states, beyond the state of
enumeration. Among them you will find those who are born
in other states beyond the state of enumeration. Among them more males are as you can see that
most people travel short distances. We have in all 370 million migrants in the country,
based on place of birth data and 2001 census of them 90 are males and two hundred sixteen
million females. And as I said the major reason is our sociological, practice of village exogamy
and caste endogamy. Then these are the figures of those born elsewhere, in the district of
enumeration. And the number is 181 born in other districts
of the state is 76 million. Born in other states is 42 among them we find that males
are more than females. That is because; again there is a famous law of migration that females
have a preference for shorter migration shorter distance. Males travel longer distances as
compared to female. And that is mainly because of that may be males can take more risk or
in case of India male migration is more induced by economic reasons.
State wise detail show that by 1991 population, number of net in-migrants, migration you know
on the basis of place of birth data using some appropriate analytical methods. We can
also, calculate net migration rate between, two census dates like 1991 and 2001. During
this ten year time what were the migration rate for different states. When we do this
we find Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, are most out migrating states in India. That does not
mean that they do not receive migrants, they receive migrants they also send migrants.
They send more migrant than the number of migrant they receive and so, they are net
out migrants. And Daman and Diu, Dadar and Nagar, Chandigarh, and Delhi these are most
in migrating union territories or states.
This is the table; the font is so small maybe you cannot see this properly. But the wherever,
migration rates are written in parenthesis that is out migration that the state is more
out migratory. And among the out migratory states are Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar then
Chhattisgarh, Jammu and Kashmir Jharkhand, Kerala is also out migrating. And Manipur,
Orissa is out migrating Rajasthan is out migrating and Tamilnadu. With, Uttar Pradesh with net
out migration, rate of two percent. And Bihar with two point seven percent are
the most out migrating states of India. That is why all the time whenever migrants are
being attacked we learn about Biharis being attacked. Because most of the migrants in
city like Mumbai or Delhi, they are from Bihar or Orissa or Chhattisgarh these states. So,
whenever people fear that these migrants are coming and taking away our jobs then, immediately
Bihar is becoming the centre of attack. And at several places people cannot distinguish
between Biharis and U P [FL] both these states, are net and highly out migrating states.
I also have some data on reason for migration
And if you look at the reasons, these are the numbers total number of Migrants, with
duration (0-9) years means those who move between 1991 and 2001. Those people who move
during, the last or the preceding decade in 2001 means, between 1991 and 2001. Census
had a close ended question for that, that the reason for migration could be work or
employment business.
Education marriage moved after birth moved with households and other reasons. You find
that 14.7 percent, there is a reason for migration reason for migration work or employment is
3.0. There must have been some error in census. I have just reproduced the census table from
2001 report. One thing is clear that majority of migrant 43.8 percent of all the migrants,
are moving for work employment, forty eight point three plus three forty the reason for
migration is a total migrants hundred. The work employments do this business education,
marriage, moved after move with households. And others this should be the case there is
some error in copying the table. So, you find that 43.8 percent of all the
migrants are, those who move because of marriage reasons this is marriage this is marriage.
In marriage migration 64.9 percent of all the migrants among women are due to marriage.
So, as much as sixty five percent of all the migrants among women move for reasons related
to marriage. Among men only 2.1 percent move for reasons related to marriage, for work
and employment only three. And in marriage migration 64.9 percent of all the migrants
among, women are due to marriage. As much as 65 percent of all the migrants
among women move for reasons related to marriage. Among men only 2.1 percent move for reasons
related to marriage. For work and employment only three percent of migrants among women,
move for reasons related to work and employment. But 37.6 percent of all the migrants among
men move for reasons related to work and employment. Thus among males the major reason for migration,
is work or employment 2.9 percent move for business, 6.2 percent move for education.
Among women most 65 percent move for marriage, 3 percent for work 0.3 percent for business,
and 1.3 for education. So, even education is not so important for women you know in
terms of statistics of migration. In statistics, of migration the majority of women move for
reasons related to marriage. But among men it is work employment business work employment
business then education. Marriage reason constitutes only a minor factor 2.1 percent of all the
migrants move for this reason.
So, from this discussion, Indias population we can come to final conclusion. It appears
that demographically, speaking in the future India will experience hyper differentiation.
A term used in postmodern literature, for extreme differentiation leading to dedifferentiation
or new forms of integration, uncertain and unpredictable at the moment. While some states
will be moving towards lowers death and birth rates. As predicted by classical demographic
transition theory. Others will be experiencing, second demographic transition.
And in some there will be a demand at least a demand for the third transition, leading
to higher fertility. Means all states are moving towards lower birth and lower death
rates, there will some states like second demographic transition means that there will
be some states where, birth rates will continue to decline even after reaching below replacement
level. But third transition means that after reaching a very low level of fertility say,
a total fertility of one point two one point three. There may be a demand Kerala reached
below replacement fertility first. Now, in the future it is a possibility a real possibility,
that religious communities or civil society or in society at large, may start demanding.
That we must do something to raise our fertility levels. And otherwise population of Kerala
can be just can deplete, further or can be overpowered by population of other states
of nation. Some such feeling may grow, and there may
be demand for raising fertility levels as it is happening in some of the developed countries.
And the fertility level may respond to that may be religious organizations can ask women
to produce some more childrens. Another conclusion, there will be more of poor and rich divide.
Our government documents show that poor and rich divide between classes, between caste
urban and rural agricultural industry you know all kinds of divides have widened.
And then within, each state there will be high and low fertility districts. The problem
will not be confined to states only within each state, high fertility low fertility states
there will be further divisions. Some districts will have high fertility some will low and
similarly, within the districts there may be high fertility blocks low fertility blocks.
And within blocks and within, blocks high and low fertility social classes. General
S C, S T, O B C, Minorities. Then within classes, again there will be fragmentation due to westernization
individualization and womens education, and urban rural differences are.
Likely to continue, then migration will however become a more important issue than fertility
and family planning. There are two types of migration, international and national internal.
In terms of statistics, international migration will remain small as compared to population
of India But it is impact on economy culture and state level policy may be substantial.
There will rapid migration from population surplus areas like Bihar and U P, to resource
surplus areas, often leading to violent conflicts at the place of destination. There will also
be more migration caused by new developed projects, climate change environmental risk
political and ethnic reasons and new economic policies.
There are forces of globalization and glocalization. All this would make the future more uncertain
and less amenable to understanding in old sociological terms.
I thought I will stop here. I think after attending these lectures you should be able
to answer some of these questions. I can also show some books.
Census anybody interested in population of India sometime refer to census.
Kingsley, Davis the population of India and Pakistan. The most classic book I think now
at the end I would like to interested a few questions.
Sir, as you concluded that population from surplus like, places where there are resources,
on surplus of people would be moving. In migration would be taking place which might lead to
conflict in those areas. On a positive note do you think this could lead to amalgamation
of cultures, acculturation taking place what do you think about this.
Yeah ideally, though it may give rise to regionalism and son of soil problems. Our goal our goal
has been to create a mix culture, we are a plural society democratic liberal society.
And mixing is our goal we want a city or a town or a village. In which people belonging
to all caste and community, caste and communities and at the state level linguistic groups live
together peacefully. And there is an equilibrium and there are no socio economic disparities
among them. But what is happening that because, the number of poor people has not declined
the gap between urban and rural areas has not declined. And good quality employment
has not expanded. So, our planning commission document show,
that in the tenth five year plan period good quality job means, formal employment in organized
sector has declined. So, when the opportunities are limited and there is competition for them.
So, sometime this issue of son of soil or native verses migrants can be raised by politicians
to catch on or to catch on the insecurity. That the localites are having when lot of
people from outside are coming at one time. One of the city larger cities of the country
Mumbai is facing this ethnic conflict now. And the divide between natives and outsiders
particularly north indians is very much clear there. But this has not always been a case,
earlier more than thirty percent population of in Mumbai, consisted of migrants and their
descendents from U P and Bihar. And there was no problem even in the early days of shiv
sena, there was an attack on south Indians. But nobody imagined that a time will come,
when there will be conflict between Mumbai caste and north Indians. So, when there is
more migration, then they have more insecurity then there is lack of employment and there
are insecurities among the localites. Then there is a possibility of rise of conflict
on ethnic basis. But I think it is not a political issue because,
in Mumbai many of the corporations is from north India and south India. Determine the
politics of that respect in slum area thane, Pune and corporations. That is why I think
it is a political issue although, even though it is related with the employment, but it
is a political issue. You can say that there is an issue, poverty
unemployment disparities. These are issue they are real issue nobody can deny. But then
politicians can cash on these issues and maybe in order to divert your attention from the
structural issues, you read the issue of ethnic identity or migration.
Sir, I have doubts regarding the first that is population Projection. The population Projection
you are that by two thousand fifty the population will be one point five seven two billion.
At that time Chinas population is one point four six two. Now, in two thousand one, Indias
population is one point two billion. Chinas is around one point one twenty two is around
twenty crore difference. India already started a lot of family planning
program population lot of program. Last two census also, show that for the first time,
first the population growth is one point five something. So, I think this prediction is
not taking to account the already lot of family planning program and population a stabilization
program introduced by India. Now, two thousand ten it is around two thousand fifty it means
forty years. Forty I think India will a high position because,
already there is lot of family planning and population.
Actually what happened maybe that forty fifty years ago. China and India were in similar
position with regard to fertility and mortality. And you are right that forty years from now
may be again the fertility level of India will be as low as the fertility level of china.
But India is democratic country, we started family planning program first and in china.
And these people were saying that the idea of family planning program is a bourgeois
idea. They will close down all the demography in population departments and the demographers,
were believed to be some kind of capitalist. So, they attack demographer, but a time came
when they realized that it is important for their policy to succeed that their population
is controlled. Since they are more of an authoritarian kind
of society so, it was easy for them to implement one child policy. It was not easy for us our
family planning program started first. But we are still having the total fertility rate
of more than two point five. Their fertility rate has come down to one point something.
And when fertility rates total fertility rates decline they show some impact, on birth rate
after a long period of time. Due to population momentum even if India achieves a total fertility
rate of Chinas level today Indias, population will continue to grow.
Because of younger age structure and population momentum, inbuilt mechanism and due to this
age structure differences, between India and China. Indias population will continue to
grow for longer period than Chinas population. So, due to two reasons one that Indias total
fertility rate is almost double the total fertility rate of India. And second Indias,
age distribution is much younger India has the youngest age distribution of the world.
Indias, age distribution is much, younger than the age distribution of China. Therefore,
India will take much longer time to stabilize than China. So, because of these two effects
in two thousand fifty Indias, population would be larger than that of China.
Thank you.