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welcome to the post rick sent or means greatest ninety ever in politics maybe
ever ever
addition of twenty twelve on michael shore and i were to go over some of the
takeaways from last night some people are calling it a hat trick date right
that uh... if three states solution out whatever it is it was a great night rick
santorum but more than that it was a terrible terrible night
for the former governor a massachusetts mit romney first what you know it just
proves that he is not as i said the presumptive winner of anything yet
romney
is somebody who went into this thinking that it was just going to be smooth
sailing about the cause of that he's gotten himself into a little bit of
trouble
the absence of negative ads the absence of spending money
on an opponent that he is underestimate
uh... underestimated over these past months is proving never heard him look
at this but rick santorum has won four states mit romney is one three and newt
gingrich who everyone says is the real opponent amid god to mit romney
has won one st
uh... it is a wide open primary in some respects a lot of people are still
thinking
the conservative you know conventional wisdom here is that it will be romney's
it's romney's to lose that setters because he has sold much money
but he cannot
presume
another take away from last night that i thought was so interesting is how
important i mean is in this election this is a week that proposition eight
had a very bad week that planned parenthood had a very good week
and what does that do that let me use the conservatives in the republican
electorate
really thinking about cultural issues for the first time they're not just
thinking about the issues of wealth they're not it thinking about issues of
health care there's thing about the sort of the core roots of the conservative
agenda as it has been for the past twenty five or thirty years
which are these cultural issues of cultural divide was a you know with the
shown
with an exclamation point over the past few weeks
and now you're seeing red cent warm in three states
really take the mantle on cultural issues from mit romney
and that stuff matters
one thing that doesn't uh... should not be overlooked is that is the fact that
there is really low turnout
and low turnout is indicative of a sleeve an apathetic electorate
electorate that his passion was about its choices
and because of that
that can relieved that is the thing i think that hurts this party more than
anything going into november the republicans need to galvanize behind
someone eventually they will they will have a candidate whether it's in our
weather it's at the convention they're going to have a candidate they're gonna
run hard against prop obama the amount of money being spent in the negative ads
all run at that point
we all know
but the point is if you have an apathetic electorate you also have a
very difficult time wooing independent voters
independent voters as we now know are the most important thing in a divided
the electricity
uh... in order to be able to get them on to your side we're seeing it in pulling
in virginia even
uh... mitt romney in the fall it's a swing state it's an important state
and what they're finding is that independent voters and particularly
women
moving over to the republican side belong where this protracted battle
wages
in the republic our primary the more difficult it is going to be for them
now let's talk about newt gingrich for second i think that last night
that that he was help more by a batterer on the night and he was first by a good
sense warm night
gingrich's set the bar very low is saying that february is essentially a
month off for him
he's got a debate the republicans are debating on the twenty second which is
two weeks from today
then not be back that deal at the polls of the ballots on the twenty eighth of
february thereafter is when newt gingrich can make a stand i don't see
real success
for written rick sent warm on the twenty eighth of february
isn't as arizona and its michigan arizona's winner take all michigan is
romley sort of
kind of sort of
home state because his father was from their uh... but it's you know if sent
warm runs hard against romney michigan picks up the kinds of conservatives that
he actually appeals to there more than the mission in there are in arizona
and that sort of that makes everything moves bended comes out
uh... moot mitch and news allman sense unbelievable but the new comes out
uh... in in on super tuesday navy wins texas certainly will win georgia may
when tennessee
then it's wide open yet again idon't think
that he is that her deseret he's saying
by the great night the rick santorum had last night i think the alternative is
still newt gingrich for the moment
eight bad night for tempo lengthy the former governor
of minnesota he endorsed mit romney
mit romney one d d uh... the primary in minnesota
but partisan minnesota and two thousand eight
he got the endorsement this time from temple into the former governor who's
also a former presidential candidate ross sent off he was only in the race to
be doing so well right now
well the endorsement ronnie mit romney came in
last night in minnesota
it is a day of the an endorsement doesn't mean anything and maybe poland a
new more than we did
when he dropped out of the race and speaking
and endorsements that mean
i don't think that there is a personal live with any kind of notoriety who has
less impact
on a presidential race than donald trump
donald trump endorsement romney last last week romney's one-in-three since
receiving that endorsement
there's a forty one percent forty one percent of people polled said they'd be
less likely to vote for romney because of the trump endorsement there's nobody
who has a bigger sense of himself but again a smaller appreciation value
outside of uh... his own mind than donald trump
and uh... it's it was good it's been confirmed already but it's been
confirmed it was confirmed at the ballot box
uh... last night's i across the country
uh... you don't know another problem that romney has his it's never
politically prudent to pick on the poor
uh... no matter what if you are the uh... of republican
candidates and you're taking on the port you should never paid on the poor and
that ronnie is going to hear about this
for the rest of the years if he is a nominee it's not gonna leave him alone
as not only from the alone now even as the competitors in the republican
primaries
and it's let's go back to that a little bit because
when you talk about uh... one of the criticisms of of romney in the way he
hasn't had a swagger almost as if you since he's the nominee
entitled to the nomination the uh... the g_o_p_ pics on entitlements a lot but
they also last night prove that they're gonna pick on people who think that they
are entitled
and that's a big problem
uh... for mit romney and and i think that's one that he will wake up from
uh... shortly and start to behave
uh... as able you know as a nominee less as a nominee and more as a candidate as
a republican candidate
ones that one apology i have to make uh... is to wolf blitzer who light
continuously ridiculed because of the way he overdramatize as-safir last night
he came out that colorado
uh... with two percent of the vote
mitt romney was in second place and sent or was winning with two percent of the
vote and wolf was going crazy
all my god i can't believe that the institute for some of the vote well
it turned out
that wolf blitzer was right
uh... so i pick on him but i i send an apology to uh... to a wolf
for uh... for having good time for that but come on t_v_ other night in nevada
usa drummed victory for mit romney there was absolutely nothing
above drama for mit romney in nevada out one last thing that i take away from
last night
is in all the coverage i watched and i don't know why this is but nobody
pronounces it missouri anymore
i didn't hear one missouri which is one of the unites things about watching the
missouri primaries you get to hear that
finally
i think it can be confirmed i've been saying that all year first they said he
was not a win iowa now i'm going to say i'm calling the race ron paul
will not be
the next president of the united states
will be back with more twenty twelve just after this
well nafta twenty twelve year twenty twelve we don't just cover the
presidential race we're going to cover congressional races in senate races all
year long senate races are starting to shape up right now in their certainly
some senate races that bear watching
uh... the balance of our congress right now is that it's taken will be for the
rest of the year as will the house and i think to a greater degree than some
people think that the senate
is kind of touch-and-go there were many retirements the senate this year and
their therefore some races that are certainly out worth watching one is in
the state of hawaii hawaii is a astate a democratic state but they had a popular
governor there
when the window who was a former mayor of now in legals a republican
she's running statewide now for the senate seat being vacated by the
retiring down daniel akaka
uh... she's running against uh... *** we it's unclear exactly who she's gonna
run against there's a democratic primary between congress woman may zero no and
former congressman ed k said cases runnin primers before
actually primary daniel akaka last time
uh... and didn't do very well lost us six years ago
uh... in in that primary but what's uh... what's interesting right now is
the polling is showing throughout whole life
that that linda lyndal who has already won statewide and it was a popular
governor is not one in there at all i think the bronco obama's i was not doing
well in the polls evolves matter fact holding up for legal has shown that she
is uh... she's down against a row no uh... by seven
uh... against uh... above the over autos as a matter of fact by as many as twenty
two points and against kane above abysmal of the doubt of by as much as a
team
so when will the struggling in a wide brocco bomb if he has coattails anywhere
in this country
it'll be in the state of hawaii so it does not look good up for the former
governor of a wide and it's early but these are they're watching because the
balance of the senate
is so important specially with the the filibuster in the overriding all of that
so i think that
uh... keeping an eye on some of the senate races importantly the montana now
jon tester
uh... a sort of uh... you know what what we in in democratic politics many see
him as a
as a moderate democrat uh... therefore cm as much more liberal in montana
uh... but he's been on environmental issues a popular issue in montana is a
democratic senator first-term senator
and he is really in a dead heat right now
uh... for for the moment with denny revert denny revert
is uh...
congressman again you know when you're a congressman from stay like one of
montana then only all over the state it's a statewide elections centrally
uh... and i think that when you know they're trying to prove
trying to show that he is a populist more so than
then tester uh... these polls have all been pretty tight testers pinned down by
one or two points all within the margin of error
but this is one of the democrats need to watch throughout the year another
is the race in missouri warm missouri
claire metcalf school uh... a freshman democrat senator
uh... who's very you know popular as a senator al among other senators on both
sides of the aisle
uh... is in in in a tight race right now it's unclear who she's going to face
in the fall tadi kan
uh... is running uh... in that race uh... as statewide racers so there's a
primary in in missouri
all the polling is is sort of showing it to be very very tight as a matter of at
the last two polls have shown her tired of forty three percent
with both of her opponents
uh... claremont castle needs to be better than forty three percent
right now to have a good chance of winning this is going to be a very very
tight race in nebraska we go there that will not be a tight race nebraskans were
hoping against hope they'll be able to get former senator
bob kerrey to run nebraska democrats were but as it stands now with ben
nelson retiring
i've been also having to have behaved like basically a republican for a lot of
the senate race the state attorney general john brennan is going to win
that race lbj
uh... undoubtedly a loss
uh... for the democrats
but in north dakota where the democrats didn't think that they were going to
have a chance all of a sudden hi de hi camps not comes out she is one statewide
in that state and uh... for the rear of the sit this either time kent conrad
that's going to be a race the democrats now are competitive in
indeed triplezero d_s_c_ seized in a spend a ton of money in that race budget
show there's actually a chance for her
to do well the last poll in which is early december shows are up against rick
burke congressman for by five point forty seven a forty two that's when she
came and there was also a democratic pollster yet to be careful of those but
the fact that that race is competitive i think
really is a boon to the democrats deserted it could really have been
disaster for democrats in that state and finally in michigan i'm sorry virginia
george allen's trying again
the old macaca senators trying to come back and and win the race of the uh...
the seat
of the man who's retiring the man who beat him jim webb but right now
uh... what's going on is former governor tim kaine is up to three four points
on alan there but it's a tighter race than democrats want to be i think
they're going to be enthused to know about the pole in the chilling obama
pulling ahead of his presumptive
uh... republican
opponent uh... in
in virginia so that kind of a races one to watch i did say finally but we can't
leave without talking about new mexico a new mexico is seeing jeff bingamen there
sent longtime senator retire this year uh... it marty heinrich a former
congressman uh... we'll be going up uh... at first and then in a primary but
the most like he will most likely win that primary according to recent polls
and and go up against heather wilson
and the latest polls have high regard by seven points over have heather wilson a
republican congress one who's seen as to moderate
for new mexican
uh... mexico's uh... republican party so
i think that those are all important races to watch we're gonna keep you
posted on the throughout the year
one little note to mention is that everybody in the republican
uh... or everybody in the congressional delegation in north carolina seems to be
dropping like flies this week we lost teeth schuler and sue myrick a
republican
he's sure democrat and sue myrick republicans say they will not be running
in melbourne want a long time congressman there's considering not
running also why that is up i don't know what we're gonna follow that story
there's something about
the that running uh... for congress in north carolina right now people are
really fed up with the the sitting congress more so than they are called
over the country and and and i had through redistricting
and through that uh... sort of sentiment against congress
on north carolina's delegations finding it very uh... unwise to run it again
will follow that story here on twenty twelve uh... for uh... the next uh...
month or so to find out who will be
declaring to run
and why people are running their
i'm michael sure is been twenty twelve thanks for watching and uh... and thanks
for uh... being part of the twenty twelve
family here young turks will see you next week