Tip:
Highlight text to annotate it
X
Well, so in the US, you're inside of the fourth growth rate cycle downturn that we've had
since the financial crisis, since the Great Recession.
We had one in 2010, into '11.
We had one from '12 into '13.
And we had one from the end of '14 into '16.
Since around mid '16 through almost the end of '17, you have a reacceleration.
And now we're decelerating again.
So that's where we are in the growth rate cycle of the US economy.
We're not in a new recession yet.
But, you know, we have to just always stay on the lookout for that.
The longer a growth rate cycle downturn continues, the more chance that some recessionary vulnerability
opens up.
We don't know yet.
That remains to be seen.
It is a global synchronized downturn.
We don't have any signs of a fresh upturn in growth.
So at ECRI, we're totally focused on cycles.
It's very different than the way a lot of other economists are looking at things.
And so we're looking very much at direction.
Now the direction is down.
We're convinced.
Others are slowly coming to that view, I think.
And that might be the backdrop for some of the jitters in the markets.
But once we know that we're in a cycle downturn-- which we know we are-- then we're looking
for signs of an upturn.
We don't see any of those yet.
And we're looking out several months, maybe a quarter or two.
So the slowdown is going to persist at least that long.
And the slower we go, the more vulnerable we become to a shock.