Tip:
Highlight text to annotate it
X
Here's who would win if Russia, China, and America all went to war right now
With the rhetoric about global trade deficits heating up on the campaign trail, it might
be appropriate to momentarily shift our focus away from the asymmetric threats of the Taliban
and ISIS and look at the world of conventional warfare.
Here’s how the world’s three most powerful militaries stack up in four major categories:
1. Stealth fighters

US Air Force
While America holds the current stealth-jet lead with the only fielded fifth-generation
fighter, Russia and China are both gunning for it.
There are only 187 F-22s, and the F-35 that is supposed to be joining them is running
into all sorts of problems in test phase, including the hi-tech helmet that is supposed
to put all kinds of info in the pilot’s visor but doesn’t work right yet.

Meanwhile, China is developing four stealth fighters.
The J-31 debuted in air shows in 2014 and is the most advanced current threat, and
the J-20, which may have just entered full-scale production, is probably a match for the F-35,
if not the F-22.
The two newest designs, the J-23 and J-25, are mostly rumors and Chinese propaganda
right now.

Russia is developing only one stealth fighter but it has capabilities that some put on par
with the F-22.
The T-50 will likely enter service in late 2016 or early 2017. Also known as the PAK
FA, it’s less stealthy than the Raptor but more maneuverable. The F-22 would likely
get a jump on the Russians in a war, but would be in serious trouble if it was spotted first.
Likely winner: As long as the other planes are still more hypothetical than real, the
F-22 remains the clear victor.
Still, Raptor drivers can’t rest easy knowing that multiple aircraft are being developed
with the primary mission of bringing them down, and those planes are being developed
with engineers who have the F-22’s schematics.
2. Tanks
The US Army fielded the first M-1 Abrams in 1980.
But the tank has undergone so many upgrades, including those to the armor, drivetrain,
and weapons systems, that everything but the shell is new.
It has a 120mm main gun, great electronics, remote-operated weapon stations, and an armor
configuration that incorporates uranium, Kevlar, reactive, and Chobham armor layers.
Russia is developing the prototype T-14 on the Armata platform, but right now it relies
on the T-90A, which is still an awesome tank.
One even survived a direct hit from a TOW missile in Syria. Originally fielded in 2004,
the T-90A features an autoloader, reactive armor, a remotely operated machine gun, and
a 125mm cannon. The crew can fire antitank guided missiles from the main gun.

Like Russia, China fields a few varieties of tanks and has new ones in development.
It’s go-to for tank-on-tank engagements is the Type 99. It features a 125mm smoothbore
gun with auto-loader that can also fire missiles.
The tank has been upgraded with reactive armor and is thought to be nearly as survivable
in combat as Western or Russian tanks.
Likely winner: Strictly looking at the gear in a one-on-one fight, it’s a draw. But
America has more top-tier tanks and a better history of training crews, plus (Ukraine notwithstanding)
US forces have more recent combat experience than their rivals.
3. Surface ships

US Navy
With the largest Navy in the world, America has any surface fight in the bag if it happens
in the middle of the ocean.
The crown jewels are the Navy’s 10 full-sized aircraft carriers and nine landing helicopter
docks. But the Navy’s technological advantages and sheer size might not be enough to overcome
China’s missiles or Russia’s diesel subs if it had to fight in enemy waters.

Russia still struggles with force projection, but the launch of Kalibr cruise missiles
at ground targets in Syria proved that Russia has found a way to give even their small ships
some serious bite.
An anti-ship version of the missile is thought to be just as capable and, if fired in a large
enough salvo, may be able to overcome US ship defenses like the Phalanx. Russia also fields
the Club-K missile system, a land-attack and anti-ship cruise missile system that can be
hidden in shipping containers.

China is pushing for a maritime revolution in both its Coast Guard and the People’s
Liberation Army Navy. The Coast Guard is used to establish sovereignty in contested waters
and is getting the world’s largest and most heavily armed Coast Guard ships. The Navy
features hundreds of surface ships with advanced missiles and other weapons in addition to
great sensors.
Likely winner: The US Navy is still the undisputed champ across the world but it would take heavy
losses if it fought China or Russia at home. A full-scale invasion might even fail if planners
aren’t careful.
4. Submarines

The US Navy has a staggering 14 ballistic missile submarines with a combined 280 nuclear
missiles that can each wipe out an enemy city, four guided-missile submarines with
154 Tomahawk cruise missiles each, and 54 nuclear attack submarines. They’re technologically
advanced, heavily armed, and stealthy.
Russia has only 60 submarines but those are very capable. Russia’s nuclear subs
are at or near par with their Western counterparts for stealth, while their diesel boats are
some of the quietest in the world.
Russia is also working on new submarine weapons, including a 100-megaton city-killing nuclear
torpedo. To top it all off, their crews were already good but are getting better.
China has only five nuclear attack submarines, 53 diesel attack submarines, and four nuclear
ballistic missile submarines, but they’re working on more. China’s subs are easy
to track, but the US and its Pacific allies are deploying sophisticated listening devices
to keep track of them anyway.
Likely winner: The US submarine fleet wins for both power projection onto land and sub-on-sub
combat, but the gap is narrowing. Chinese and Russian innovations and the rapid construction
in new shipyards will make the ocean a more dangerous place for American submariners.