Tip:
Highlight text to annotate it
X
There is this concept called exponential and exponential essentially means that
something doubles in a particular time frame and in technology terms we often say
that technology doubles in terms of powerful power
in about a year
Now that's very difficult first to understand because it's non intuitive, so if someone has used
this concept of a story if you could imagine a huge stadium
like Wembley stadium or something
and somebody comes on in half time in a little white coat and they get a little perpet
water out
and they put one drop on the sand to spot
and thats a magic drop of water so it's going to grow exponentially but rather than
growing once, doubling every year like technology does, it will double every
minutes
So the first question is, if you're right at the back of the top in the
stadium; how long is it it before you drown?
now our
brains tend to think well we've got months or years to get that sorted out
but in fact beyond this forty nine minutes so you haven't got that long at all and the
second interesting thing is that at forty five minutes, so you've actually only got four minutes before you drown
the stadium still ninety three percent empty,
So, if you apply to that to technology, when you see a little water at the bottom of
the stadium, you have to react pretty quickly because you haven't got long before it overtakes you.
So exponential
is about moving very quickly, but it's also about moving very slowly in the beginning and
that's why it's very difficult sometimes to see these exponential trends, because
they are very, they are doubling,
from the very small base
which means ultimately that is very difficult spot trends when you
actually in the middle of them. That why people like in the record industries
and people like them they are not stupid people by any means, they've just saw the
trend and failed to think that it was gonna happen that quickly. As far as mobile
concerned, we're in that phase now, we're exponential, we are ninety three per cent
empty, and we've got four minutes to save our lives and you have to take that world very
very seriously
Don't forget, you can find us online and sign up to our newsletter for our weekly videos.