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I represent the company Metal Expert, which specialises in analysis and forecasting for the ferrous metals market. For our clients, generally the country’s largest metallurgical companies, we conduct market research and forecasting, explain how the market will change, and what place in it companies are able to take up if they are prepared to invest in their production capacities.
What are your impressions of this Summit?
We have attended several Adam Smith conferences before. Year-on-year the audience changes, as do the formats, and it is good for us that at this Summit we can discuss development prospects with other participants. We can also hear the views of other participants about what is happening on the market, and how they see it developing.
There aren’t many similar industry events each year, where it is also possible to speak with representatives of banks and directors of metallurgical enterprises, from the CIS and further abroad, but all of whom have an interest in the markets of the CIS.
We appreciate this opportunity to speak with various parties about what is happening on the market. Today there is a very complex situation on the market. As cynical as I am about how the cost of raw and finished products may change over the next few years, there is currently reason think that they will increase in the short-term
Nevertheless, suppliers in the CIS, most of all in Russia, have some of the lowest production costs, which allows them – including on the raw and semi-finished products markets – to supply their products to global markets, even to China.
They can profitably supply their products to China, while competing with domestic enterprises there. If the situation becomes much worse, and the price of iron-ore in China falls to $90, then this will be a serious blow for Russian suppliers. But as pessimistic as I am, I don’t think that the price will fall that far. This means that CIS and Russian suppliers will maintain their competitiveness in selling raw and semi-finished products.
We are the consulting department of an informational agency, and study what is happening on the market very closely. Where are metallurgy enterprises investing, how are metals being used, and we try to follow new market trends and what they mean for metals’ use.
And we see signs that metals use in Russia has increased, maybe not by the 5% that we witnessed last year, but still more than the global average. And this means that the Russian metallurgy sector can expect adequate growth, as it can in other countries.
And we expect that the Russian market will attract investors. Not just metals but our other production plans… This is what we imagine that investors in machine-building will focus on, in order to satisfy demand by Russian consumers for these products. And this is the consumption that we are counting on.