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It sounds like a big welfare promise.
Hundreds of thousands of new jobs, endless economic growth, higher wages -- for everyone.
All this is supposed to become true with the free trade agreement between the European Union and the United States.
But the negotiations are taking place behind closed doors. Everything is top secret.
It almost seems as if the governments are afraid of the public.
Maybe for good reasons.
What is at stake is nothing less than a new world trade order, a gigantic free trade zone from Los Angeles to Bucharest.
This is about who will have the say in the future: elected politicians or lobbyists and big corporations?
Reporters Stephan Stuchlik and Achim Pollmeier shine a light on what we can expect from the deal -- and if there will really be prosperity for all.
We have an appointment with the EU's Trade Commissioner.
Karel de Gucht is very busy. He is the one who is almost single-handedly negotiating the free trade agreement with the USA.
And his message is clear:
Karel de Gucht, EU Trade Commissioner: It is obvious that this agreement will create growth and more income for our citizens. I am sure that there will be hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The free trade agreement with the US -- it sounds like a blessing for the world.
The biggest agreement of all times will bring a trade boom and a job miracle, according to politicians.
Angela Merkel, German Chancellor: Such a trade agreement would be a huge step forward which would also create new jobs.
Big promises -- but experts fear that politicians are sacrificing democratic rights in favour of the power of multinational corporations.
Pia Eberhardt, Corporate Europe Observatory: This is an all-out-attack on consumer protection standards, environmental laws ...
... regulations to stabilise financial markets, on both sides of the Atlantic.
Here's what US companies want to export to the European market: chicken disinfected with chlorine or hormone-treated meat -- banned in Europe.
Also, chemicals that are banned in the EU due to their health risks.
The EU Commission claims that there is no reason to be afraid.
But the free trade agreement is already having an impact according to Dagmar Roth-Behrendt, vice-president of the European Parliament.
When it comes to food safety laws she is already being asked to bend the rules considering the free trade agreement.
D. Roth-Behrendt, MEP, vice-president of the European Parliament: Why can a high public servant of the Commission's Directorate General for Trade come to me and urge me "please, please, please, please do not reject this law ...
... let it pass because otherwise the US will not trust us and will abandon the negotiations".
What about this very weak proposed cloning legislation that has been tabled in the midst of the negotiations on free trade?
That already shows how things will be run from now on.
The multi-trillion US-dollar-agreement is being almost completely negotiated in secret.
But it touches not only upon food safety laws, but also our social standards, financial markets, labour rights -- simply everything.
Are we being taken to the cleaners in favour of multinational corporations?
The European Commission is reacting to these concerns -- but not with regards to the substance.
One just has to promote the agreement better, this internal strategy paper states.
The Commission does not want anybody to talk about the worries of consumers, but only about "the aim to create growth and jobs".
A. Merkel: A huge step forward which will also create new jobs.
*** Westerwelle, former German foreign minister: New jobs.
K. De Gucht, EU Trade Commissioner: More jobs, more growth, this is how we get out of the economic crisis.
To back these claims, there are several studies that were drafted for the German Ministry for Economic Affairs and the Bertelsmann Foundation -- all written by the Ifo Institute in Munich.
The studies claim "considerable effects": up to 160,000 new jobs in Germany alone.
Experts question these projections...
... including Jagdish Bhagwati, one of the world's most famous trade economists.
Jagdish Bhagwati, Columbia University: These studies are highly problematic because the assumptions on which they are based are very close to mere personal opinions.
Many people with experience will tell you that these studies are not the right way to deal with the problem.
Still, impressive numbers are being circulated in Germany. A job miracle, enormous effects on the labour market. Hardly anyone has questioned what is behind these nice numbers.
How do scientists come up with the figures?
For instance, they assume in their models that trade with the US will increase by 80% and that there are no exchange rate fluctuations.
One study even includes a completely unrealistic internal market scenario -- as if the US would adopt all European laws.
And here's the best part:
The main author of the German studies, Gabriel Felbermayr of the Ifo-Institute does not consider that the effects of the free trade agreement will be remarkable.
Prof. Gabriel Felbermayr, Ifo-Institute: The main message which must have been clear to everyone reading the report, is that ...
A) the employment effects will not be negative -- they are positive in all scenarios and that
B) even in the most optimistic scenario they are very small. We are talking about 0.4 % of total employment.
Wait a moment -- the main author of the study admits that the agreement will bring very few benefits?
Yes, he says. And it is politicians, including the ministry for economic affairs, which is selling the small numbers as a job miracle.
G. Felbermayr: You can accuse the ministry of economic affairs for not presenting the information in a more balanced way.
I would also say you can accuse the Commission on the same grounds. There is some truth to such an accusation.
The EU Commission is not only talking about jobs, it also promises gigantic economic growth. 120 billion Euros of economic growth for the EU.
The Trade Commissioner is touring Europe to promote exactly this.
But according to his own study, this gigantic number means only minute additional growth of 0.5 % over a period of ten years.
Reporter: So that means 0.05 % growth per year on average. That is not the big effect you are always talking about.
K. De Gucht: Let us interrupt. Is that the study that we have commissioned? Can I see it?
The Commissioner is re-doing the maths. But the study is clear.
Reporter: These are 0.49 % here, right?
K. De Gucht: First of all we should not argue about percentages.
Reporter: But you are doing that, sorry.
K. De Gucht: I am saying we will remove most trade barriers in a huge number of areas. That's what I am saying.
But the agreement is about who will have the say in the future.
Monitor got hold of a secret position paper of the EU Commission.
It suggests that all new laws and regulations should be reviewed according to their contribution to more trade, by a so-called "regulatory cooperation council".
Lobbyists should be consulted from the very beginning, before the actual law-makers have a say.
D. Roth-Behrendt: Then let's just dissolve the European Parliament and many national parliaments, too ...
... and let's just allow the industry to do it and the Trade Commissioner and maybe the US Secretary of Agriculture.
This is brilliant and probably saves us a lot of time and money. But it will harm consumers in the European Union.
The Commission states that the "regulatory council" is only a proposal. What will happen with it in the negotiations nobody knows, because they are secret.
J. Bhagwati: They have been negotiating in secret and only the business lobby was involved? That is fundamentally wrong!
By 2015, the free trade agreement is supposed to be concluded.
Until then, we will continue to be told the fairytale of massive growth and many jobs.
By the way: when Mexico was in free trade negotiations with the US, the country was also promised 'golden times'.
The truth is: since the agreement came into force, there was less growth in Mexico and the unemployment rate increased dramatically.
Many peasants lost their livelihoods, since they could not compete with the cheap imports from the US.
So much for growth and prosperity for all.