Tip:
Highlight text to annotate it
X
it's
itself
dr ian bremmer he is so with the you're you're raising the founder presidential
year asia group you're asia group dot net is their website
and is a twitter in bremer as two ends here
uh... he's the president here asia group the world's largest political risk
consultancy also writes for the financial times
harvard business review near wall street journal l_a_ times new york times
he's author edited five books and teaches at columbia is university doctor
bremer welcome the program
hang out of it
thank you very much
i know you weren't you were a somewhat skeptical that this moment might come
back uh... july twenty ninth in the financial times you were arm
resumes in concerns but
here we are so given this context
uh... blacks lee first for are listed on the letter g_ curve is twenty twenty
leila foundation on that
well but i don't look at the related rift between the country's opener
uh... and it's stability
uh... and if you look at that provided it hard to do on the radio
uh... but i think of a stability being the vertical axis and uh... countries
open it up to
quick idea stranded people all of that on the horizontal axis it looks like a j
which what that means that they're a lot of countries out there that are people
account opened globalization and all the rest of the united states scandinavia
branch japan but there are other countries with a stable because their
code
and country but at the table because they're closed i want to take all the
people at the earliest understand that because and you know that the big huge
get in the g_a_o_ terry deep on the left hand side you can see that
places like if i may
countries that are close
and want to stay close
of for example saudi arabia they just recently i believe gave ten thousand
dollars to every single member of the everyday reversed in the country other
oil revenues in order to prevent they're being in arab spring in saudi arabia
that kind of things that he talked not only have devoted a lot of money to
saudi arabia appointment saudi you on the arabic praying in public record and
retain this a very different than that we think of the western democracies
which is in part by indicate or that the candidate or topic
um... the which he included me debate a beautiful correct
i'm compete this tabloid talk talk even if babbitt will be at the question of
spending money it's a question of supporting the military
the question of expanding the party led
i've got the cooperation council but she he wished it just invited recording in
the market jordan in ok sub par mai i interrupted you sure getting into that
well uh... between open and stable governments
united states western europe and closed but stable governments saudi arabia for
example
this there's this
where countries
less open and less stable
right attitude with a question of course what kind of weird and kind of movie
grumpy carlos
state to becoming a more open state
clearly what is not the democracy
uh... that the people which i have a lot more intimate how what happening in the
country not by the time that you need to panic and that
happen without are pink export-oriented according
huge economic growth
but that doesn't guarantee of course in countries like libya and countries a
quiet the middle east
after the financial quite two thousand eight uh... a lot of them were in a lot
of trouble on this is one of the reasons why you should continue to develop art
as quickly as they did
would it be and
reasonable link in the context of this
strain
suggest that you just ma
have at at least a short term had
a better outcome because they had civil institutions they were all based in the
military police they with their
that survived the passing of a bar etc
uh... the court systems and fall apart the please uh... didn't fall apart the
the uh... in many of the government owned businesses continued operating by
even though they were on by the military
so although you could argue the basically it's a hunter that's running
the country at least it's stable and it's becoming more open
or it seems to be whereas in lydia oh you've got eight countries it is the
size of
of a major u_s_ data i die i don't know which one compared to perhaps you do
uh... but it has a population of only couple million people part and so you
know it's mostly tribal it's mostly were
earl it's mostly a literate and it doesn't
intrusions of governance
other than that iron-*** qaddafi had
make it through
who would that jake curves from
closed in stable to open and stable
as i think what you put your finger on it that we need to put the paper that i
mean whether whatever when you have to cripple instability that correction in
countries like this and deeply authoritarian country connection in
thailand
and and quality that ordinary countries like egypt
wycliffe dea uh... it's a dangerous period and
on the one hand what's happening in negative disappointing to a lot of those
wonderful young folk that we're demonstrating in tigers square because
while mubarak is gone and now under under trial
um... you still have to pay military leaders in the fame intelligent poconos
payment tution but apart by those institutions that are going to help to
ensure that the country is not going to paul into completely undertook to write
and for moving too quickly towards democratization would really be a
problem in egypt and managing that transition and that down to the court is
a very very tricky thing to do but uh... it's unlikely eighty two point number of
fall apart they have a a better chance that moving slowly incrementally in the
direction that more like turkey suzanne
but with their happily where in in whittier
uh... it you're you're right i mean there were no guarantees that that
qaddafi was was going to get an upset with the rebels conduct support to
remove qaddafi
um... they had to get a lucky enought but they've gotten a little lucky
and looks like a dot b whether it's a matter of hours a day fiske is going to
be gone but
but that in the fact that the easy part in the u_s_ could have taken a copy of
the felt that they or or the nato if they just want to engage in didn't
bother to wreck the airstrike
teleport killed a lot of the billion leaving aside whether or not that would
have been a good idea very different story very different show the point is
that now that you've removed qaddafi what do you have in libya
you you have no institution to perfect the rebels but never run uh...
government before and the fact that the web that nothing will the future of
libya
it in the hands of the libyans which would be bolivia visited just that just
are motoring into
tripoli because i'd sure you they come from different ride
than the ones that used to control the oil wealth
in the country who's going to decide which would be into the tomatoes
provisions
if the international community to help they don't force it um... but we do have
peacekeepers but if you really important question we have been we had some some
in the last week that would be not inaccurate c suggest that if we jones
intervene in a way that at least
sailors civil institutions
and maybe even make some decisions about winners and losers that the next step
for lydia will be civil war i hear people going to be civil war or it's
going to be uh... mime-version do an authoritarian rule that comes from a
very different ripe to approve it happened that would happen auto but open
let me know what you had before
that living in the u_s_ need to be leading the introduction
but it does leave the defending the international community has has side of
the principal equiped copy would not be there i would not be out rwandan
international community
um... there will not be stable governments going on there is not going
to pick the international community
and more and more
sneeze same problems and issues franklin iraq and afghanistan has wanted an
academic advisor building a rocket metallization cast
but the fact that the coming toward the couple very interesting starting in
burlington later that year leases dotnet and of course is writings all over the
internet doctor brown we thank you
so much for being with us tonight