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My name is Anne Marie Kimball,
and I'm a professor in epidemiology and health services.
I teach a number of courses in global health,
and I run the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Emerging Infections Network,
and direct an informatic research and training program in Peru.
Well there are actually two definitions.
In epidemiology we just use pandemic to refer to the geographic spread of disease,
but what you saw with the World Health Organization, they have a different definition.
For them a pandemic is defined as liberal circulation of a new virus
or other agent in more then one WHO region.
So, that's why were not at a pandemic state yet.
It's at about the same time every year.
The flu season starts in the winter months in the Northern Hemisphere,
and it starts in our summer months in the Southern Hemisphere.
How does it start?
There's an introduction of virus or viruses of Influenza type into a population,
and people begin to be ill.
We don't really understand, frankly, why it's seasonal.
That's really a very important scientific question that we don't have an answer to.
Well, I think what you're seeing is that it's proving not to be as severe as we thought,
when it came out of Mexico.
The first reports suggested almost a ten percent mortality rate,
but, in fact, the mortality rate is down around two to three percent.
Similar to what we usually see with flu.
The great pandemic of 1918 had a mortality rate of five percent.
They're learning the importance of having a plan.
They're also learning the importance of international cooperation
in a global outbreak situation.
So, were all learning from this experience.
I think in this outbreak you've seen a lot of things done right.
The first thing that was done right is the alert went out to all countries.
You're seeing the implementation of pandemic planning that's been in the works for years.
Since the first SARS outbreak, and then following that with the first bird flu outbreaks,
we've been doing pandemic planning all over the world,
and those plans are being actualized, tested, and in some cases changed.
Well, the protection for families, school age children, and adults is pretty much the same,
and that's keep sick children home, don't go to work if you're sick, wash your hands frequently,
and avoid being in spaces where others have the flu.
Such as, if you go to visit some one with the flu take precautions.
I would like to add that we run the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Emerging Infections Network,
and have for about fifteen years.
And just last week we were recognized by APEC and linked to their front page
as their official agent to notify the countries about this epidemic, and epidemics to come.