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"Charting the Map"
Presented by Jean-Christophe Victor
At the heart of the Indian subcontinent
Today I'm at Francois Mitterand National Library at the Golden Age of Marine Maps exhibition.
I'm standing next to a map of western India dating back to 1684.
India has become a large emerging nation in the 21st century.
It will be the most populated country in the next 10 years, ahead of China.
It will be a large economic powerhouse in 20 years.
However, its regional politics need more organization.
There is constant tension with Pakistan.
Growing maritime rivalry with China.
So, we'll look at these maps today.
The Indian subcontinent has the Himalayas to the north,
and the Indian Ocean to the south.
The region consists of India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives.
Located in the heart is India, with 3,300,000 square kilometers.
In 2012, there are 1.2 billion inhabitants, making it the second most populated country.
The Indian population is expected to surpass China's by 2025.
India is part of the emerging nations known as the BRICS.
And when China becomes the world's largest economy by 2030, India will be third.
India is considered to be the world's largest democracy
and has an important role to play.
But first, it needs stable, peaceful relations with its neighbors.
Since India represents 80% of the subcontinent's GDP,
along with 80% of the region's population and surface area.
Therefore, it is an important player in the region.
However, when we look at market flows,
only 4% of India's exports go towards regional neighbors
and imports represent only 0.5%.
The Indian subcontinent is thus the world's least integrated regions.
Despite the existence of SAARC, the South Asian Association for Regional Co-Operation.
The regional political environment is fractured.
And tensions continue to persist.
Look at this historical map of British-controlled India in 1939.
Sri Lanka and Burma are British colonies as well.
Bhutan and Sikkim are British protectorates.
On August 15, 1947, the depart of the British results in the partition of India.
India and Pakistan, which itself is divided into two territories: West and East Pakistan.
West and East Pakistan separate in 1971.
A secession supported by India, of which Bangladesh comes into fruition.
Relations between India and its neighbors have been a powerplay of strong vs. weak.
However, things are changing.
Let's look at Pakistan.
First, at its physical geography and the Indus River.
Pakistan is located downstream.
The river is vulnerable to output from India's side.
India has built a dam on a tributary of the Indus, the Chenab.
And it plans to build a dam on the Neelum.
These dams will have economic and environmental impacts on Pakistan.
Another Indo-Pakistan rivalry includes Afghanistan.
Pakistan sees Afghanistan as its strategic backyard.
However, India has an influential role with the country.
India ensures that Afghan forces receive training.
They also provide developmental aid and financial investments.
Lastly, the two countries have been fighting over the Kashmir region since partition.
Despite a lack of confidence between New Delhi and Islamabad,
the two governments have accepted the fact that the Kashmir question no longer be a precondition
to solving other issues between the two countries.
Both governments are perfectly conscious that the combined GDP of both countries is $5 trillion
in terms of equal consumer power in 2011.
And have a combined total population equivalent to China's.
So we can see the trade possibilities are enormous.
Since 2012, transborder trade has been made more accessible due
to the Wagat passage in the Punjab.
And with the help of new trade passages in Punjab and Rajasthan.
New Delhi now looks toward Islamabad, motivated by economic and strategic reasons,
India needs energy resources.
Turkmenistan is the world's fourth largest gas producer.
This maps shows the gas pipeline project connecting Turkmenistan
and India, by passing through Afghanistan and Pakistan.
This gas pipeline project cannot happen if Afghanistan is at war.
The pipeline's is even more important given the American and European embargo on neighboring Iran.
India has no plans to distance itself from Tehran
because it's building a deepwater port in Chah Bahar.
Let's look to the east.
That is, India's eastern border with Bangladesh.
The Himalayas are the water tower of the Indian subcontinent.
The Brahmaputra and Ganges cross Indian territory
before joining Bangladesh where the delta is formed.
As with Pakistan, India is in a position of power here.
This creates tension.
For example, near the Teesta River,
or near the dams that India built in Farakka,
or the dam it plans to build in Tipimukh.
The river decreasing output downstream is an on-going problem
since more than half of Bangladesh's population
lives off of agriculture.
Many Bangladesh farmers leave their country and go to India to find cultivable land.
In 2012, between 10 and 20 million illegal immigrant lives in the states
on the Indo-Bangladesh border.
To prevent massive Bangladeshi immigration,
the Indian government has built a 3,286 kilometer long barbwire fence.
Once finished, it will be the world's longest fence.
How are relations evolving between India and Bangladesh?
There are economic and strategic benefits for India.
China has become the main trade partner with Bangladesh
by financing deepwater ports such as in Chittagong.
And a rail line from Chittagong to Yunnan province, passing through Burma.
To favor Chinese development, India suspended customs restrictions.
In return, India expects Bangladesh to make trade routes to the northeast easier
which are currently only accessible by the Siliguri Corridor.
It seems odd when we think of the wall India built.
Let's look at India's border with Nepal.
Between 1996 and 2006, Nepal went through a long civil war
headed by Maoist insurgents who opposed the Nepalese monarchist government.
India is facing similar insurgency threats on its own soil
with the Naxalite movement which supports the Nepalese monarchy.
With the end of the Nepalese monarchy in 2008,
India had to rethink its political stance vis-a-vis Kathmandu.
Especially since the Sino-Nepalese partnership
has been growing due to several infrastructure projects.
A railway line is being built between Lhasa and Nepal.
A dam construction project on the Seti River.
Even a Buddhist complex project in Lumbini near the Indian border.
Construction projects between Nepal and China have doubled in less than five years.
However, the Nepalese economy is dependent on trade agreements with India.
Which represents 2/3 of Nepalese exports.
India has also begun building transborder railway lines.
Along with several hydro dam projects.
Indian influence in Nepalese affairs remain dominant.
But Kathmandu is diplomatically using its geographical location.
And to end, let's go to the south of India to Sri Lanka.
New Delhi tried to impose its influence in the island's civil war
by supporting the Tamil Tigers against the Sri Lankan government.
Now India wants to improve bilateral relations by
helping rebuild Sri Lanka.
India is Sri Lanka's main trade partner.
It receives half of Indian investment for all of the subcontinent.
Because even here, competition with China is fierce.
China is building two ports in Sri Lanka, in Colombo and Hambantota.
Once finished, it will join the port in Gwadar, Pakistan,
Chittagong between Bangladesh and Burma.
Indian and Western experts call this development the Chinese pearl necklace strategy in the Indian Ocean.
The Chinese government finances and builds these port projects
in countries surrounding India.
So that military machinery and Chinese containers can make stopovers.
Not to threaten India, but to control trade routes.
Beijing also wants to reduce its energy dependence regarding maritime routes
and to build transit land routes.
Here are the two energy corridors that China is currently building,
which will travel through Burma and Pakistan.
Pakistan is no longer beholden to India.
If India wants to become a world power
it also must be a power in its own backyard.
New Delhi officials have understood this in regards to two simple conclusions:
First, China's growing influence in South Asia.
Which makes New Delhi more flexible with its neighbors.
Secondly, the realization that India is behind in terms of regional politics.
A status that puts India and its neighbors at a distance.
Politically, economically, and humanitarian-wise.
Something which is odd by today's standards.
Bibliography
For more on the Indian subcontinent,
you can read the 'Atlas historique de l'Inde'.
There's also 'New Delhi et le monde'.
You can also read 'La geopolitique de l'Inde', published in 2012.