Tip:
Highlight text to annotate it
X
[background music]
Brad Haire: Welcome to Georgia Ag Chat.
I'm Brad Haire with the University of Georgia
College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences.
I'm here today with Dr. Nathan Smith,
Farm Economist with University of Georgia Cooperative Extension.
Hey Dr. Smith.
Dr. Nathan Smith: Hey Brad. Good to be with you today.
Haire: Today we're going to talk about peanut acreage in
Georgia and the country and what that's doing to prices right now.
More importantly, what they might mean for prices next year.
Dr. Smith, give us an idea of about where we're at with
peanut acreage in Georgia, and in the country.
Smith: Brad, we are down on peanut acres in Georgia for 2011;
below 500,000 acres, pegged at 480,000.
That's the lowest acres in Georgia for peanuts since 1982.
As a matter of fact, if you want to go back in the history books,
that's the lowest or we've only been below 500,000 acres
three times since 1967.
We could probably call this an indication of where the bottom
might be in peanut acres.
For the U.S., planted acres are down about 11% at 1.15 million acres.
Haire: With the acreage being so low this year and,
if you consider right now,
the southeast is pretty much being mauled by a drought,
I'm thinking at best, we may get average yields this year.
If we do, I'm thinking farmers are going to call that a win.
So, thinking about average yields,
what are we looking at as far as production this year?
Smith: Average yield being used right now is 3,200 pounds for the U.S.;
we've been a little bit higher than that in Georgia.
You're right, this year, an average yield would be a good yield.
At 3,200 pound average, we would have about
1.8 million ton crop for the U.S.; that would be below our total use.
For U.S., domestic use and exports, we'll use about
2.1 million tons this coming year.
The supply is going to be significantly cut this year.
Haire: When you talk about supply, we've got to talk about
our old friend demand; that's where prices come in.
How is the expected tight supply effecting prices right now and
are you willing to take a gamble on what prices may be
for next year right now?
Smith: That's a good question.
Prices have been higher this year, for 2011, going into planting;
but they haven't followed quite as high as cotton and
corn and the other crops.
The market has been quite because of the uncertainty on acres,
how many acres were actually going to be planted.
Shelled market price right now has been trading at around
80¢ per pound for medium runners.
Even recently, it's been published at 95¢ per pound.
If you want to convert that back to a farmer price,
we're talking more than $800 - $900 to $1,000 a ton
on a farmer's stock basis.
We should see better prices if shelled prices hold on like this
into harvest, even next year.
Haire: There you have it.
Peanut acreages bottomed out in Georgia, maybe even nationally.
That sets us up for a good next year as far as pricing with peanuts.
We have a long way to go with this crop this year.
Dr. Smith, I notice, has a wrist band on that says "Praying for Rain."
Dr. Smith and many of us will be doing the same thing.
Until next time, take care, give thanks and good luck.
[background music]
(c) 2011. University of Georgia Office of Communications and Technology Services.