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Paul Isely Transcription - Interview on Economy Paul Isely: Well we can see that at least
at the beginning as we talk to people and we look at the surveys this year,
we are seeing that people are really looking at this year being an awful lot like last year.
That it's going to be relatively slow growth and we are going to continue
to see improvements, but it's going to be slow going.
One negative that we saw was that there was a little bit
of a retrenchment in the growth of exports.
So the problems that are happening in Europe, the problems that are happening in China,
are affecting our ability to send things overseas.
Dottie Barnes: I wanted to look at consumer confidence.
I know last year we had said it was going to be the highest
in five years, that's always a good thing.
Speak to consumer confidence.
PI: Well consumers have been sort of on a rollercoaster this year
and there's been improving confidence but we haven't seen it show up as much in retail sales.
so people are a little more confident, but it's not translating into more purchases yet.
Part of that is that there is a little bit of uncertainty this year about healthcare,
there is a little bit of uncertainty this year about their taxes, there is a little bit
of uncertainty this year about federal spending and all of that results
in people saying well you know maybe I'm going to hang
to little bit of cash for a little while.
DB: And then the growth, I know that it's predicted to be sort
like last year and we kind of hit the target.
What is the projected growth for this year?
PI: Well we're looking at about two percent for employment growth
across the West Michigan region and about two and a half percent for sales growth
and that's not bad and it's still running a little bit ahead
of the US projections for both of those.
DB: I noticed in there too that you said you mentioned healthcare,
how that's going to be slowing a little bit, talk about that.
PI: As we can see right now in the healthcare industry is because of uncertainty
about how the new regulations that would be coming through as a result
of the healthcare laws are going to affect them.
They're being very conservative on their hiring and they're taking a wait and see posture
to see what actually happens and that means that we see slower growth this year as a result.
DB: What is your main message then as you look at everything overall.
What will be your main point to tell people for this next year locally?
PI: Well that the consumers have made themselves solid again.
Their balance sheet is looking like it should and they're are confortable spending
within their means so the growth we have is sustainable and we have a big problem out there
with the U.S. government and that is it creating a large level of uncertainty.
This uncertainty is resulting in corporations in banks not lending or spending the money
that they should or would normally do at this point in a recovery and that's taking one
to two percent out of the growth of the US this year.
The faster that uncertainty can get resolved,
the faster we'll see ourselves get back to the old normal.
DB: You may have already answered it, but anything that can be done
to better things this year, any action that can be taken?
PI: Well we that see even a bad plan on how
to handle the deficit is better than no plan right now.
That he uncertainty, the slowdown is a result
of uncertainty right now is bigger than the slowdown of a bad plan.
So we need to get something in place, it needs to happen relatively soon and if we fight
about it all year long the uncertainty is going to be there all year long
and we're not going to see any growth.
That's the number one thing we can do right now because the consumers are primed,
businesses have the capital that they need, and we're starting to see some warm up in some
of the countries outside of the United States.
So everything is primed if we can get rid of this uncertainty.
DB: Finally how about employment for the person that's needing a job, looking for a job,
feels unstable with their job in the West Michigan area.
PI: Well we are going to see more jobs.
The key is whether your skill lines up with those jobs.
Right now we are seeing employers having the luxury to wait for the perfect employee
and so if you don't line up with that you're going to have to keep looking.
We're seeing right now that people are retraining, their getting skills,
and they're adjusting their skills and moving into jobs, but all of that takes time.
So the good news is people are getting jobs, the bad news is we won't be back
to where we were before all this began.